This IDC update presents findings from IDC's latest research and analysis. In March, IDC released its worldwide quarterly PC forecast for 4Q12 (see Worldwide PC Market: 4Q12 Review and 2012 Summary (IDC #239980, March 2013). As discussed in PC Review: March 2013 (IDC #239955, March 2013), 4Q12 did not provide the necessary rebound that PC vendors were hoping for. Demand remained muted through the holiday season as the launch of Windows 8 coincided with a dearth of corresponding touchscreen panels, creating a shortage of Windows 8–based touch PCs. As a result, PC shipments in 4Q12 represented an 8.3% YoY decrease. PC shipments for 2012 declined by 3.7% YoY.
In 2013, the same market forces that suppressed PC shipments in 4Q12 remain. The global economy remains gripped with uncertainty, while lower-cost mobile devices continue to attract shoppers, particularly in emerging markets. Although supply constraints on touchscreen panels have improved, they remain tight, promising a near-term future of continued shortages and cost premiums for touch PCs. Additionally, Windows 8 still has market challenges to overcome, including continued education of a broad consumer base facing a steeper learning curve than with previous Windows releases.
IDC adjusted its PC forecast and now expects PC shipments in 2013 to contract by 1.3%. This document provides deeper analysis of the latest PC forecast, and highlights include:
- Worldwide PC shipments in 2012 declined 3.7% YoY. IDC forecasts a second consecutive market contraction with a 1.3% reduction in PC shipments for 2013.
- IDC forecasts that PC price levels will continue to fall and that sub-$500 PCs will account for nearly half (49.5%) of all PCs shipped by 2017.
- IDC forecasts that, while ultraslim PCs and convertible PCs will enjoy the largest growth through the next five years — 41.6% and 39.3% CAGRs, respectively — traditional notebooks will still account for the lion's share of portable PC shipments in 2017 at 66.1%.