IDC Reports Slower Third Quarter Growth for Worldwide PC Shipments Due to Financial Turmoil in U.S. and Global Markets
15 Oct 2008
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., October 15, 2008 – Worldwide PC shipments
struggled to meet expectations in the third quarter of 2008 (3Q08), according
to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. Worldwide shipments were up 15.8% year
over year, which was slightly less than projected. Strong results in EMEA
(Europe, Middle East, Africa) helped offset tepid growth in other emerging regions,
while the U.S. and Japan held steady.
"The proliferation of low-cost
portable PCs coincided perfectly with market conditions," said Jay Chou,
research analyst with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "As more
low-cost models enter the fray, a new pecking order may emerge among vendors as
the market leans toward notebooks with ever-declining ASPs. What remains to be
seen is how much cannibalization will occur, and the degree to which mounting
economic pressures will stifle PC market growth over the next year."
"The difficult economic
environment accelerated toward the end of the third quarter. The commercial
segment has been constrained due to tight IT budgets, while back-to-school
spending helped somewhat in maintaining
momentum," said Doug Bell, research analyst, Personal Computing. "IDC expects
the ongoing economic woes in the U.S. to further impact consumer and commercial
PC spending during the holiday season."
Regional Outlook
- U.S. - As expected the
third quarter was sluggish with performance further exacerbated by a flurry of
bad economic news. Among the bright spots, however, were the emergence of
low-cost notebooks and some marginal back-to-school activities that helped to
keep the quarter in positive territory. The competitive landscape has remained
essentially unchanged, although Dell and Apple noticeably managed to outperform
the market.
- EMEA - Continued buoyancy in the consumer
notebook market supported another strong quarter in EMEA, as expected. Demand
for mainstream notebooks remained robust in the back-to-school season while the
proliferation of low-cost ultra portables and deals through Telco operators
created additional momentum and boosted growth further. The gloomy economic
confidence in several countries showed no sign of slowing consumer demand
overall and the market also benefited from sustained demand in the business
space. The financial crisis that hit Europe in October may lead to intensifying
economic pressure over the coming months, but several factors inherent to the
PC market across both Western Europe and CEMA regions will continue to act as
growth drivers.
- Japan - Shipments slightly exceeded expectations in the
quarter, given the current economic situation. Acer and Asus reaped sizable
gains from its early entry into Ultra Low Cost Notebooks. Meanwhile, Lenovo
suffered significant erosion due to a management shakeup which may be felt for
some time to come.
- Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) - Ongoing economic pressures, which were being
felt even before the recent financial crisis, kept the APeJ region slightly
below forecasts this quarter. Still, growth remains in the double-digit range.
Even if global economic uncertainty further erodes the region in future
quarters, domestic demand in key markets like China may keep the momentum
going.
Vendor Highlights
- HP continues to hold its position as the
worldwide leader with annual growth of 14.9%. The recent downturn in the U.S.
economy affected the company's overall performance both worldwide and in the
U.S. HP's vast product offerings should help it to weather the current economic
climate and enable it to grow as the market begins to recover.
- Dell suffered a disappointing quarter in all regions except
APeJ, where it grew 33.7% year over year. Despite positive growth in all
regions except Japan, Dell trailed the overall market with 11.4%
year-over-year growth. Dell's direct sales approach had a more immediate
impact on its U.S. numbers compared with vendors leveraging non-direct
methods. The silver lining is that Dell enjoyed a solid performance from
its bourgeoning retail presence.
- Acer has remained focused on emerging regions
and portables, helping it to claim global shipments of more than 10 million
units. Like other vendors, U.S. sales were down but the continued early embrace
of ultra low-cost PCs helped Acer maintain strong growth in other regions
around the world. Combined with Gateway, U.S. shipments declined -3.2% year
over year while APeJ and other emerging markets maintained healthy gains.
- Lenovo struggled to gain traction as small
business spending slowed. Its worldwide annual growth of 7.7% was helped by
solid results from its home turf in APeJ as well as EMEA, both of which were
closer to expectations compared to other regions.
- Toshiba reported annual growth of 24%, less than
its 2Q08 growth. Although its pace of growth dampened compared to last quarter,
strong showings in EMEA, Japan, and APeJ helped Toshiba to offset limited
growth in the U.S.
Top 5 Vendors, Worldwide PC Shipments, Third Quarter 2008 (Preliminary*)
(Units Shipments are in thousands)
|
Rank
|
Vendor
|
3Q08
Shipments
|
Market
Share
|
3Q07
Shipments
|
Market
Share
|
3Q08/3Q07
Growth
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
HP
|
15,095
|
18.8%
|
13,136
|
19.0%
|
14.9%
|
|
2
|
Dell
|
11,346
|
14.2%
|
10,186
|
14.7%
|
11.4%
|
|
3
|
Acer
|
10,038
|
12.5%
|
5,388
|
7.8%
|
86.3%
|
|
4
|
Lenovo
|
5,952
|
7.4%
|
5,528
|
8.0%
|
7.7%
|
|
5
|
Toshiba
|
3,657
|
4.6%
|
2,948
|
4.3%
|
24.0%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Others
|
34,055
|
42.5%
|
31,999
|
46.3%
|
6.4%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All Vendors
|
80,143
|
100.0%
|
69,185
|
100.0%
|
15.8%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3
|
Acer (Merged)
|
10,038
|
12.5%
|
6,411
|
9.3%
|
56.6%
|
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, October 15, 2008
Notes:
* Some IDC estimates are prior to financial earnings reports. Shipments include shipments to distribution
channels or end users. OEM sales are counted under the vendor/brand under which
they are sold. PCs include Desktops, Notebooks, Ultra Portables,
and x86 Servers and do not include handhelds. Data for all vendors are reported
for calendar periods. Data for Acer includes shipments for
Gateway starting in Q4 2007, and only Acer data for prior quarters. This reflects the legal status of the
companies, which merged during the fourth quarter of 2007.
Top 5 Vendors, United States PC Shipments, Third Quarter 2008 (Preliminary*)
(Units Shipments are in thousands)
|
Rank
|
Vendor
|
3Q08
Shipments
|
Market
Share
|
3Q07
Shipments
|
Market
Share
|
3Q08/3Q07
Growth
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
Dell
|
5,301
|
29.2%
|
5,010
|
29.1%
|
5.8%
|
|
2
|
HP
|
4,545
|
25.1%
|
4,346
|
25.2%
|
4.6%
|
|
3
|
Apple
|
1,654
|
9.1%
|
1,254
|
7.3%
|
32.0%
|
|
4
|
Acer
|
1,538
|
8.5%
|
724
|
4.2%
|
112.3%
|
|
5
|
Toshiba
|
978
|
5.4%
|
939
|
5.5%
|
4.1%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Others
|
4,117
|
22.7%
|
4,948
|
28.7%
|
-16.8%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All Vendors
|
18,134
|
100.0%
|
17,222
|
100.0%
|
5.3%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3
|
Acer (Merged)
|
1,538
|
8.5%
|
1,589
|
9.2%
|
-3.2%
|
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, October 15, 2008
Notes:
* Some IDC estimates prior to financial earnings reports. Shipments include shipments to distribution
channels or end users. OEM sales are counted under the vendor/brand under which
they are sold. PCs include Desktops, Notebooks, Ultra Portables,
and x86 Servers and do not include handhelds. Data for all vendors are reported
for calendar periods. Data for Acer includes shipments for
Gateway starting in Q4 2007, and only Acer data for prior quarters. This reflects the legal status of the
companies, which merged during the fourth quarter of 2007.
IDC's
Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in 55 countries by
vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user
segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well
as price band and installed base data.
For
more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy
Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.
Contact
For more information, contact:
Jay Chou
jchou@idc.com
650-350-6464
Doug Bell
dbell@idc.com
508-935-4698
David Daoud
ddaoud@idc.com
508-988-7502
Michael Shirer
press@idc.com
508-935-4200
|