PC Shipments Expected to Have Strong Second Half of 2012, Long-Term PC Growth Capped Within Single Digits, According to IDC
20 Mar 2012
FRAMINGHAM,
Mass., March 20, 2012
– Worldwide PC shipment growth for 2011 ended on a slightly positive note, growing
to 1.8% on the year, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. While the first half of 2012 is
expected to see only modest shipment growth, the launch of Windows 8 and the
excitement generated by ultrabooks and other ultra-thin notebooks should drive
second half sales in a much stronger way.
For
much of 2011, vendors struggled to maintain consumer interest in a market beset
by a tenuous economic recovery and disrupted by emerging computing devices. The
lack of interest was evidenced by a lackluster Christmas season. Mature markets
such as the United States and Western Europe, in particular, had a rough year,
with PC shipments in 2011 shrinking by 9% compared to 2010.
Looking
ahead, the PC market will still enjoy pockets of growth, particularly in emerging
markets. IDC expects 2012 PC growth to be modest at just 5.0% for the year,
with most of that growth occurring in the latter half of the year."Many
consumers are holding off making PC purchases at the moment because tablet
devices like Apple's iPad are proving to be a powerful distraction,"
according to Bob
O'Donnell, vice president of Clients and Displays at IDC. "However,
end user surveys tell us that few people consider media tablets as replacements
for their PCs, so later this year when there is a new Microsoft operating
system, available in sleek new PC form factors, we believe consumer interest in
PCs will begin to rebound."
Although
emerging markets have continued to show good uptake, IDC has slightly reduced
its outlook in some regions. The 2012 forecast for China has been lowered to 9%,
the first time single-digit growth has been forecast for a year. Part of the
adjustment amongst emerging markets comes from the shortage of disk drives,
which greatly impacts white box PC manufacturers who play a prevalent role in these
markets. Secondly, the prospect of slowing exports will also likely affect PC
spending as both consumers and SMBs in developing countries scale back.
"2012
and 2013 will bring significant challenges for Microsoft and the PC community,"
said Jay Chou,
senior research analyst, Worldwide PC Tracker. "The Wintel platform must
evolve to accommodate user expectations of ubiquitous computing on a multitude
of devices and physical settings. Windows 8 and ultrabooks are a definitive
step in the right direction to recapturing the relevance of the PC, but its
promise of meshing a tablet experience in a PC body will likely entail a period
of trial and error, thus the market will likely see modest growth in the near
term."
PC
Shipments by Region and Form Factor, 2011-2016 (Shipments in millions)
Region
Form Factor
2011
2012*
2013*
2014*
2015*
2016*
Emerging Markets
Desktop PC
91.2
93.0
98.2
102.5
105.4
108.2
Emerging Markets
Portable PC
110.0
122.3
140.4
164.2
189.2
214.7
Emerging Markets
Total PC
201.2
215.4
238.6
266.7
294.5
322.9
Mature Markets
Desktop PC
52.8
51.6
51.7
50.7
50.2
48.8
Mature Markets
Portable PC
99.4
104.1
116.2
128.2
139.0
146.6
Mature Markets
Total PC
152.1
155.7
167.8
178.9
189.1
195.4
Worldwide
Desktop PC
144.0
144.6
149.9
153.2
155.6
157.0
Worldwide
Portable PC
209.4
226.4
256.6
292.4
328.2
361.3
Worldwide
Total PC
353.3
371.1
406.4
445.6
483.6
518.3
Source: IDC
Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, February 2012
* Forecast
data
See table
notes below.
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Chart: Total Worldwide Desktop PC vs. Portable PC Shipments, 2011 - 2016 Emerging vs. Mature Markets (Shipments in Millions)Description: Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, March 12, 2012Note: IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker provides PC market data for over 80 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data.For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 1-650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.Further detail about this tracker can be found at:http://www.idc.com/tracker/showproductinfo.jsp?prod_id=1Tags: IDC, Tracker, Desktop PC, Portable PC, PC Shipments, Emerging Markets, ...Author: IDCcharts powered by iCharts
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PC
Shipment Growth by Region and Form Factor, 2011-2016
Region
Form Factor
2011
2012*
2013*
2014*
2015*
2016*
Emerging Markets
Desktop PC
3.5%
2.1%
5.5%
4.4%
2.8%
2.7%
Emerging Markets
Portable PC
19.3%
11.2%
14.8%
17.0%
15.2%
13.5%
Emerging Markets
Total PC
11.6%
7.0%
10.8%
11.8%
10.4%
9.6%
Mature Markets
Desktop PC
-9.2%
-2.3%
0.2%
-1.9%
-1.0%
-2.8%
Mature Markets
Portable PC
-8.6%
4.8%
11.6%
10.4%
8.4%
5.5%
Mature Markets
Total PC
-8.8%
2.3%
7.8%
6.6%
5.7%
3.3%
Worldwide
Desktop PC
-1.6%
0.5%
3.6%
2.2%
1.5%
0.9%
Worldwide
Portable PC
4.2%
8.1%
13.3%
14.0%
12.2%
10.1%
Worldwide
Total PC
1.8%
5.0%
9.5%
9.6%
8.5%
7.2%
Source: IDC
Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, February 2012
* Forecast
data
Table Notes: Mature Markets include the U.S., Western Europe, Japan, and Canada.
Emerging
Markets include Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan), Latin America, Central and
Eastern Africa, Middle East, and Africa.
Taxonomy
Note: PCs include Desktop, Mini Notebook and other
Portable PCs, and do not include handhelds or Media Tablets such as the Apple
iPad or Android Tablets
IDC's
Worldwide Quarterly
PC Tracker gathers PC market data in 80 countries by vendor, form factor,
brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research
includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and
installed base data. For more information, or to subscribe to the research,
please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.
About IDC
IDC is the
premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events
for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology
markets. IDC helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment
community to make fact-based decisions on technology purchases and business
strategy. More than 1,000 IDC analysts provide global, regional, and local
expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110
countries. For more than 48 years, IDC has provided strategic insights to help
our clients achieve their key business objectives. IDC is a subsidiary of IDG,
the world's leading technology media, research, and events company. You can
learn more about IDC by visiting www.idc.com.