IDC Increases Media Tablet Forecast, Expects New Products and Price Points to Drive Strong Shipment Growth Through 2016
14 Jun 2012
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., June 14, 2012 – Expectations of strong demand for media
tablets in the second half of 2012 has led International Data Corporation (IDC) to
increase its forecast for the worldwide market to 107.4 million units for the
year, up from its previous forecast of 106.1 million units. In the latest
forecast update of the Worldwide Quarterly
Media Tablet and eReader Tracker, IDC also revised upward its
2013 forecast number from 137.4 million units to 142.8 million units. And by
2016 worldwide shipments should reach 222.1 million units.
for media tablets remains robust, and we see an increasing interest in the
category from the commercial side," said Tom Mainelli, research director, Mobile Connected Devices
at IDC. "We expect pending new products from
major players, increasingly affordable mainstream devices, and a huge marketing
blitz from Microsoft around Windows 8 to drive increased consumer interest in
the category through the end of the year."
In addition to increasing the unit totals for
2012, IDC also updated its forecast to shift a larger percentage of future units
toward iOS and away from Android. IDC now expects iOS to grow its share of the
market in 2012 to 62.5%, up from 58.2% in 2011. Meanwhile Android's share will
slip from 38.7% in 2011 to 36.5% in 2012. IDC expects third-place Blackberry to
slip from 1.7% to 1%.
"After a very strong launch of new products
in March, Apple's iPad shows few signs of slowing down," Mainelli added. "The
addition of the Retina Display and 4G capabilities to the third-generation products
clearly enticed many current owners to upgrade. And Apple's decision to keep
two iPad 2s in the market at lower prices—moving the entry-level price down to
$399—seems to be paying off as well. If Apple launches a sub-$300, 7-inch
product into the market later this year as rumored, we expect the company’s grip
on this market to become even stronger."
Chart: Worldwide Media Tablet Shipments Split by OSHistorical and Forecast* 2010 - 2016 (Units in Millions)Description: Tags: Author: IDCcharts powered by iCharts
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IDC is not currently forecasting Windows 8 or
Windows RT tablets in its Media Tablet Tracker (they appear in the PC Tracker
forecast). However, beginning next quarter, IDC will institute several taxonomy
changes that will bring all tablet slates, regardless of OS or processor type, into
the Media Tablet Tracker.
"We’re looking forward to rolling the Windows-based
tablets into our tablet forecast in order to give customers a complete view of
tablet slates all in one place," Mainelli commented. "Our current
thinking, based upon early pricing expectations for these products, is that
Windows-based tablets will be largely additive to our existing media tablet
market forecast. We don't expect Windows-based tablets to necessarily take share
from Apple and Android, but will grow the overall tablet market."
While IDC increased its forecast for media
tablets in 2012, the firm significantly lowered its forecast for eReaders in
2012. After a disappointing first quarter, and strong indications that low-priced
tablets are significantly impacting demand, IDC now expects 2012 shipments to be
stable at around 28 million units, down slightly from the 28.2 million units
that shipped in 2011.
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