The overall Taiwanese semiconductor market grew 2% in 2007, slower than the worldwide semiconductor market, and will continue to expand at a moderate compound annual growth rate of 1.3% though 2012. While computing will remain the largest semiconductor segment in Taiwan, accounting for 55% of the demand by 2012, automotive will be the fastest growing segment. 

Key Findings

• Foundry and DRAM are still the two key areas of manufacturing for Taiwanese semiconductor suppliers.
• Taiwanese fabless suppliers continue to focus on domestic and Chinese market.
• Taiwanese suppliers ASE and SPIL account for 50% of the Taiwanese testing and assembly market.

Opportunities and Challenges

• Taiwanese suppliers must invest in software to compete in the future at a platform level against the global IDMs and fabless companies.
• Taiwanese suppliers must become more active in acquiring and forming new partnerships. Taiwanese DRAM suppliers, which struggle to enter the 8 inch foundry market, will be forced to consolidate.
• Taiwanese suppliers must take advantage of easing technology restrictions and engage more actively in the development of Chinese-driven technology standards.

Find Out More
Check out IDC's presentation, Taiwan Semiconductor 2007-2012 Forecast and Analysis (Doc # 211655).

WiMAX Semiconductor Revenues to Reach $1.2 Billion in 2012

As WiMAX-for mobile computing is expected in 2Q08, the infrastructure build-out needed to support the technology is well underway with over 200 worldwide deployments. The long awaited evolution is taking place, and next year will be quite revealing in providing the first hints as to the consumers' ultimate interest and acceptance of WiMAX. IDC predicts that WiMAX semiconductor revenues will reach $1.2 billion in 2012, representing a 25% CAGR, as mobile WiMAX gains traction. The factors that will most influence the ramp and ultimate adoption of WiMAX will be the availability, cost, and performance of WiMAX compared to other technologies available at the time.

Mobile WiMAX to Gain Traction Consecutively in Three Markets

1. Mobile computing: mobile WiMAX could make its debut in mobile computing platforms in the next several months.
2. Consumer products: soon afterwards, mobile WiMAX will likely gain traction in gaming devices, digital cameras, personal media players (PMPs), mobile internet devices (MIDs) and other consumer products, and eventually mobile phones.
3. Mobile phone: WiMAX is expected in mobile phones as early as 2009, but volume production is more likely in 2010.

Gain Further Insight into the Drivers of the WiMAX Semiconductor Market
Read IDC's Worldwide WiMAX Semiconductor 2008-2012 Forecast and Analysis (Doc # 211776), which examines the WiMAX semiconductor market and the variables that will ultimately drive its growth and adoption.

Connectivity, the Fastest Growing Semiconductor Segment for Mobile Phones, to Provide Revenue of $4.6 Billion in 2012

Worldwide mobile phone connectivity semiconductor revenue will more than double between 2007 and 2012 to reach $4.6 billion by 2012, representing a CAGR of almost 17%. Connectivity continues to be a primary driver in transforming mobile phones into a broader class of mobile communication devices. A number of emerging connectivity technologies are gaining visibility and influence and are helping evolve mobile phones into multimedia/entertainment, and computing platforms.

Key Trends

• While attach rates for Bluetooth, FM radio and GPS remain the highest, emerging technologies such as WiFi, NFC, UWB, and others will gain traction.
• Integration trends in mobile phone connectivity in the form of combo chips will help provide the necessary cost and design efficiencies, and space and power savings to further increase connectivity penetration in mobile phones.

Gain Insight into Eight Emerging Connectivity Technologies
Check out IDC's study, Worldwide Mobile Phone Connectivity Chipset 2008–2012 Forecast and Analysis (Doc # 210513), which provides details on eight emerging technologies: Bluetooth, FM radio, WiFi, GPS, WiMAX, mobile TV, UWB, and NFC. The study analyzes the adoption of these technologies into mobile phones and identifies variations between 2G/2.5G and 3G/3.5G penetration.

Top Predictions for PC and x86 Server Supply Chain in 2008: Challenges Could Fundamentally Change Supply Chain's Structure

The worldwide PC and x86 server supply chain, which delivered a very strong year in 2007, is facing several challenges in 2008 that could fundamentally change the structure of the supply chain. Among these challenges are the following: manufacturers are looking to invest in large-scale operations outside of China, and new cheap educational PCs may drive prices of components even lower. As a result, the low margin rates for most ecosystem partners are starting to displace vendors and may impact overall innovation in parts of the market.

Key Predictions Among the Top 10

• Manufacturers will move beyond China as they become more aware of their regional location strategies.
• Managing inventory levels and sourcing agreements will become critical for purchasing departments throughout the supply chain as the industry manages downside risks.
• Green will become strategic for manufacturers.
• PC semiconductor vendors will push into consumer semiconductor markets.

Preview the Trends that will Shape the PC and x86 Server Supply Chain in 2008
Read IDC's Worldwide PC and x86 Server Supply Chain 2008 Top 10 Predictions (Doc #210766)

"The worldwide memory semiconductor market has reached the bottom and is expected to move to stabilization in 2H08. On one hand, the DRAM market will shrink 12% to $27.5 billion in 2008. Partial early buying of PC OEMs, disposal of old 8in. fabs, and temporal stop of ProMOS' 12in. contributed to control of the market in 1Q08. But, the rapid ramp of new 12in. fabs, the 1Gb rush toward early bit crossover, and a possibly cooling PC market will lead the current recession to peak in 2Q08. IDC still sees the 2H08 DRAM market negative. Strength of ongoing consolidation will decide recovery speed and depth in the DRAM market over the next couple of years. On the other hand, the NAND market will grow 3% to $15.0 billion in 2008 and will continue the normal growth pattern. Order delays from Apple pushed out the peak of recession to 1H08 from 4Q07, and supply from process upgrade and capacity increase will cover any demand by the midyear market of 2008. Low price–driven demand will lead a recovery again in 2H08." - Soo-Kyoum Kim, Program Director for IDC's Semiconductors Research

Accenture CTO imagines IT changes in 2008
"IdaRose Sylvester, senior research analyst with research firm IDC in San Mateo, Calif., agreed that usability in future technologies is incredibly vital. However, she said that because users will be saturated with commoditized technology, the product and services development will be a natural process where usability may not be such a challenge."
CIO-Asia
April 14, 2008

TPACK upgrades silicon
“Due to the number of new concepts continually introduced in the emerging Carrier Ethernet segment, such as PBT (PBB-TE) and T-MPLS, OEMs are unsure which concepts will become the de-facto standard for supporting Carrier Ethernet services," said Aileen Arcilla, Principal Analyst at IDC. "Unlike NPUs and Network Processing ASSPs, offering a FPGA-based solution can allow OEMs to address the flexibility in support and time-to-market issues associated with rapid changes in Carrier Ethernet requirements.”
fibresystem.org
April 11, 2008

Asia/Pacific Semiconductors

• Taiwan Semiconductor 2007-2012 Forecast and Analysis - Doc # 211655
• Dedicated Foundry Wins Tug-of-War with IDM Foundry: Sun Microsystems Chooses TSMC for 45nm Processor Production - Doc # 211196     

OEM Manufacturing Value Chain

• Worldwide Mobile Phone Supply Chain 2008 Top 10 Predictions - Doc # 210765
• Worldwide PC and x86 Server Supply Chain 2008 Top 10 Predictions - Doc # 210766  

Semiconductors: Consumer Devices

• Intel Drives Processor Density for Virtualization, Visualization, and Power Efficiency - Doc # 211235     
• MacWorld 2008: Apple Not Phoning It In - Doc # 210760
• Feeling Somewhat Blu: CES 2008 - Doc # 210537     
• Freescale to Buy SigmaTel: Beautiful Music, or Just Noise? - Doc # 210782        

Semiconductors: Networking, Broadband and Storage Systems

• MIPS: Getting to the Core of IP - Doc # 211499      
• LSI Purchases Infineon's Hard Disk Drive Semiconductor Business - Doc # 211429     
• OC-768 in ASSP Form: SONET Keeps Going, and Going ... - Doc # 211489    
• Cisco's Quantum Flow Processor - What It Means for the Semiconductor Industry - Doc # 211490  
• Worldwide Cellular Basestation Semiconductor 2007-2011 Forecast and Analysis - Doc # 210233    

Semiconductors: Overview

• Worldwide DRAM Demand and Supply 4Q07-4Q08 and 2007-2012 Update - Doc # 211398
• Worldwide NAND Flash Demand and Supply 4Q07-4Q08 and 2007-2012 Update - Doc # 211397    

Semiconductors: Personal Computing

• IDC Worldwide Motherboard QView Quarterly Review - 4Q07 Desktop Motherboard Vendor Shares and Market Forecast - Doc # 211521 - IDC Presentation: Forecast
• LSI Purchases Infineon's Hard Disk Drive Semiconductor Business - Doc # 211429  
• Worldwide x86 PC Core Logic Chipset 4Q07 Vendor Shares - Doc # 210904
• IDC Worldwide Motherboard Qview Quarterly Review - 2Q07 Desktop Motherboard Vendor Shares and Market Forecast - Doc # 210747 - IDC Presentation
• IDC Worldwide Motherboard Qview Quarterly Review - 3Q07 Desktop Motherboard Vendor Shares and Market Forecast - Doc # 210748 - IDC Presentation
• Worldwide PC Processor 4Q07 Vendor Shares - Doc # 210660   

Semiconductors: Wireless

• Worldwide WiMAX Semiconductor 2008-2012 Forecast and Analysis - Doc 211776
• Infineon and Atheros Team Up for VoIP Solution in Continuing Trend for Mobile Phone Chipset - Doc # 211567 
• IDC Wireless Semiconductor Market Trends: 1H08 - Doc # 211415 - IDC Presentation
• Worldwide Mobile Phone Connectivity Chipset 2008–2012 Forecast and Analysis - Doc # 210513   

Worldwide Electronics Manufacturing Services Forecaster

• Worldwide IDC Electronics Manufacturing Services Market Forecast, 2008–2012 - Doc # 211094 - IDC Presentation: Forecast
• IDC Interview with Plexus CFO: Invested in Strategy - Doc # 210986     
• Worldwide Quarterly Electronics Manufacturing Services Vendor Shares and Market Update Briefing, 3Q07 - Doc # 210482 - IDC Presentation 
• Worldwide Electronics Manufacturing Services Forecaster Version 3, 2007: 3Q07 Vendor Shares - Doc # 210481 - Pivot Table

Contact Anne-Sophie Dankens at 508-935-4313 or adankens@idc.com