Economic Outlook for Global Technology Markets
Stay up to date on how the latest economic trends are impacting global tech markets.
Monitor the Latest Tech Economic Opinions and Conditions
Global technology demand will be shaped by emerging economic conditions for years to come. IDC’s global analyst community monitors the short and long-term implications, providing accurate market data, timely insights, and context critical for action.
The global economy appears to have stabilised in recent months, with a lower risk of recession and increasing possibility of a ’soft landing'. Even if a recession does unfold in the next 6 months, key business initiatives—like cloud, future of work, and digital transformations—act as tentpoles for IT demand overall, and the emergence of AI is one reason that ICT continues to be identified as a key strategic priority alongside its role as a driver of short-term productivity and efficiency.
Higher interest rates on financing for capital purchases are having a pronounced negative impact on hardware categories, particularly in the on prem space in areas like infrastructure and devices—especially PCs. Cloud-related investments in software and services have been less affected and continue to post strong growth.
Hardware markets are showing the impact of higher interest rates, and constraints have shifted from supply to demand. The US has been very resilient so far in 2023 and remains on course for a 'soft landing' from inflated growth in the last two years. However, growth in China has been weaker than forecast so far in 2023, and this is impacting the short-term outlook for the APJ region. In EMEA, Western Europe is showing signs of weakness as high interest rates begin to bite, while CEE remains heavily affected by the war in Ukraine. It’s too early to say that we have bottomed out in terms of forecast adjustments.
State of the Market IT Spending Forecast Update:
Access on demand webinar
Watch Now : State of the Market IT Spending Forecast UpdateAnnual Growth of Tech Spend
Worldwide Black Book 3rd Platform Edition - Forecast, 2023 | Aug (V2 2023) Release
Annual Growth of Tech Spend
Tech spending has slowed from the highs of 2021, with softer performance in hardware spending from last year and continuing into Q3 2023. Spending was flat in China last year, due to COVID restrictions, and recovery in China this year has so far been more sluggish than anticipated, which also drags on the broader APJ region.
Tech spending growth has been weaker in the Americas and EMEA this year, but with strong signs of resilience in the USA, especially for software and services investments. The forecast for 2025 and 2026 shows growth will continue to outpace GDP in the long term, as AI emerges as a key driver.
The latest IDC Future of Resiliency and Spending Survey reveals IT leaders suggests that the conservative approach to overall economic assumptions and control of IT budgets that dominated the first part of 2023 is moderating but continues to shape early budget expectations for 2024. The Asia Pacific region continues to report significantly lower recession concerns than other regions; 35% of Asia Pacific respondents anticipate a recession in the coming year compared to 67% in Europe and 862% in North America.
Despite growing conservatism when it comes to economic outlook for 2024, the main IT budget area immune to cuts in case of recession remains Security, Risk, & Compliance (31%). Infrastructure & IT Operation optimization at 24% is also high. Data & Analytics projects as well as Workplace solutions are each sited by just under 20% of IT leaders as an area immune to cuts.
Creating more stresses for CIOs are increased demands by C-Suite and line of business leaders to increase spending on generative AI related not included in initial 2023 budgets. IT leaders report plans to allocate 10% of all new IT project spend to AI projects in the next 12 months. Finding funding sources for these investments will be a major focus for the rest of 2023.
Access More Survey Insights
Read Now how to avoid IT Malaise and prepare for the AI waveAnticipated Economic Impact
IDC Worldwide Monthly Technology Investment Monitor | August 2023
Q: Thinking about the economic situation in your country, do you think there will be a recession in the coming year? Q: You indicated you think there will be a recession in the coming year. How severe will that recession be? (N=856)
Anticipated Economic Impact
Globally, 70% of respondents believe there will be a recession in the coming year. While the majority of respondents across North America and Europe believe the impact will be moderate, opinions over recession severity are fairly evenly split in Asia Pacific.
Weathering Economic Uncertainty:
How the C-Suite is Planning for 2023
Economic Outlook Resources
Explore more economic insights