This IDC study presents the five-year forecast for mobile phone shipments worldwide by device vendors. The worldwide mobile phone market will reach a total of 1.95 billion unit shipments in 2016, down 1.6% from the 1.98 billion units shipped in 2015. From there, total mobile phone shipments will reach 2.01 billion units worldwide, resulting in a CAGR of 0.3% for 2015–2020.
"The 2016 volume slowdown will carry over to 2017 as replacement rates look to extend in many developed markets," says Anthony Scarsella, research manager for IDC's Mobile Phones team. "We do, however, expect slight growth to happen in 2018 as smartphones will grow nearly 6% from 2017. Leading the way will be value-packed phablets and affordable entry-level devices that will offer similar features and designs compared with many higher-priced models on the market. These 'good enough'-type devices are expected to satisfy an abundance of consumers in both mature and emerging markets."