This IDC study presents the five-year forecast for mobile phone shipments worldwide by device vendors. The worldwide mobile phone market will reach a total of 1.99 billion unit shipments in 2017, up a slim 1.1% from the 1.97 billion units shipped in 2016. From there, total mobile phone shipments will reach 2.03 billion units worldwide, resulting in a CAGR of 0.6% for 2016–2021.
"2016 represented the first year that the mobile phone industry (inclusive of smartphones) failed to grow from the previous year," says Anthony Scarsella, research manager for IDC's Mobile Phones team. "Although smartphones rebounded nicely in the fourth quarter to bring 2.5% growth in 2016, the 7.9% decline in feature phones was just too much to overcome, and thus the market fell by 0.3%. A steady decline in feature phones is expected each year as more and more users transition to smartphones. We expect smartphone growth to rebound to 4.2% growth in 2017 offsetting the 8.1% decline in feature phones to bring growth (1.1%) back to the market in 2017."