This IDC Market Presentation was provided to clients in North America to update them on our outlook for U.S. ICT markets for 2020. For a global perspective, see Scenario Assessment of COVID-19 Impact on Global Device Markets — March Update (IDC #US46180020, April 2020). The United States has several unique qualities that make it particularly vulnerable to a long bout with a pandemic, including an inability to force lockdowns in the manner of authoritarian regimes.
Flattening the infection curve could prove arduous, and this is driving uncertainty into the markets. Still, there is reason to be optimistic. Whenever life returns to normalcy, pent-up demand could support a swift rebound. Recent commercial survey data shows more companies looking to increase their IT budgets in this environment than reduce, with a keen eye toward IT modernization.
In our baseline scenario, the U.S. ICT spend (sans business services) would hold at -0.3% constant currency for 2020. Our optimistic scenario calls for 2.2% growth, while our pessimistic projections call for 2.9% contraction. Still closer to the ceiling than to the floor for now.
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