02 Mar 2020

COVID-19 Expected to Hit EMEA's Tablet Market Harder in Calendar Year 2Q, Says IDC

LONDON, February 28, 2020 — In the fourth quarter of 2019, the overall tablet market in EMEA declined 8.7% YoY, reaching 12.9 million units, according to International Data Corporation (IDC). Digital transformation is keeping demand for mobile solutions growing in enterprises, which drives the commercial space, while the weak consumer performance remains the primary reason for the contraction in the market.

"The tier A vendors are sustaining the market primarily due to the introduction of new devices with first-party keyboards that generate interest in the enterprise environment, enabling users in the commercial space and prosumers to take advantage of the enhanced productivity inherent in these features," said Helena Ferreira, research analyst, IDC Western Europe Personal Computing Devices. "This is visible in some Android vendors that are pushing more on premium devices as this offer becomes more compelling."

In Western Europe, in the fourth quarter of the year the overall tablet market performed better than in the other regions in EMEA, despite a decrease of 8.0% YoY. Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (CEMA) declined 10.0% YoY. The performance is similar for overall 2019, with Western Europe declining 7.2% YoY and CEMA decreasing 14.1% YoY.

"CEE suffered the most, decreasing by 20.5% YoY, compared with -9.3% YoY in the MEA region. The tablet market continues to be strongly inhibited by end-user focus on attractively priced notebooks and convertible PCs as well as large screen smartphones," said Nikolina Jurisic, program manager, CEMA. "While both regions saw a strong decline on the consumer side of the market, commercial increased by 23.6% YoY in CEE and 5.4% YoY in MEA, driven mostly by significant educational projects recorded in Egypt, Kenya, and Croatia."

Vendor Highlights

Samsung's strength in seasonality in emerging markets secured the top spot in EMEA. Apple was second in EMEA but remained number 1 in Western Europe, pushed by the introduction of the new iPad. Huawei remained in third, but continues to be negatively impacted by the ban, posting a decline YoY. Lenovo held fourth place and continued to grow in the region, mainly driven by opportunities in the education sector in developed countries and benefiting from Huawei's decline. Amazon continued to lead in the entry level, securing its place in the top 5.





Top 5 Tablet Companies in EMEA — Shipments, Market Share, and Year-Over-Year Growth

Fourth-Quarter 2019 (Finals) (Shipments in Thousands)

Company

4Q19 Shipments

4Q19

Share

4Q18 Shipments

4Q18

Share

YoY

Growth

Samsung

3,239

25.2%

3,586

25.5%

-9.7%

Apple

3,064

23.8%

3,162

22.5%

-3.1%

Huawei

1,218

9.5%

1,247

8.9%

-2.3%

Lenovo

1,056

8.2%

952

6.8%

11.0%

Amazon.com

703

5.5%

606

4.3%

16.0%

Others

3,569

27.8%

4,522

32.1%

-21.1%

Total

12,848

100%

14,073

100%

-8.7%

Source: IDC EMEA Personal Computing Device Quarterly Tracker (Tablet), 4Q19

The EMEA tablet market is projected to contract by 7.3% YoY in the first half of 2020. The forecast for the first two quarters has been corrected downward given the ongoing soft consumer market and the probable impact of COVID-19 in the production and shipment of devices into the region. IDC estimates a negative 4% impact in the EMEA tablet market for the first semester of 2020. While the effect in 1Q may be mild, 2Q is likely to be hit harder. Contingency plans from the Chinese government are expected to bring the second half of 2020 back to normal, depending on how the whole situation evolves.

"It's too early to assess the full extent of the impact of COVID-19 on the device market and particularly in tablets. On one hand there were factory shutdowns that compromised the production in February and quarantined areas that disrupted supply chains, as some key panel and memory manufacturers are located in the province where the outbreak took place," said Daniel Goncalves, senior research analyst, IDC Western Europe Personal Computing Devices. "On the other hand, 1Q is likely to be offset by the slow demand and the healthy inventory in components prior to the crisis. Nevertheless, there are clear signs that the negative impact won't be able to be fully mitigated. Factories are not running at full capacity yet and Apple officially said it will not be meeting revenue goals due to the virus effect."

The commercial market in EMEA is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.8% between 2020 and 2024.

"In 2020 IDC expects the detachable tablet market to maintain the strong momentum seen during 2019 and increase accordingly across the five-year forecast period for the whole region," said Jurisic. "The new product launches in 2019 in Android and iOS tablets from Apple and Samsung are expected to drive growth. The commercial segment is predicted to continue to grow strongly in EMEA during 2020, driven by the continuous adoption of detachables in enterprise and educational projects in emerging markets."



EMEA Tablet Forecast by OS

4Q19 Forecast for 2020–2024 (Shipments in Thousands)

OS

2020 Shipments*

2020

Share*

2024 Shipments*

2024

Share*

2020–2024 CAGR*

Android

27,579

69.0%

23,963

66.4%

-3.5%

iOS

9,790

24.5%

8,997

24.9%

-2.1%

Windows

2,541

6.4%

2,939

8.1%

3.7%

Others

51

0.1%

215

0.6%

72.8%

Total

39,960

100.00%

36,114

100.00%

-2.5%

Source: IDC EMEA Personal Computing Device Quarterly Tracker (Tablet), 4Q19

Note: Tablets are portable, battery-powered computing devices inclusive of both slate and detachable form factors. Tablets may use LCD or OLED displays (epaper-based ereaders are not included here). Tablets are both slate and detachable keyboard form factor devices with color displays equal to or larger than 7.0in. and smaller than 16.0in.

IDC's Quarterly PCD Tracker provides unmatched market coverage and forecasts for the entire device space, covering PCs and tablets, in more than 80 countries — providing fast, essential, and comprehensive market information across the entire personal computing device market.

For more information on IDC's EMEA Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker or other IDC research services, please contact Vice President Karine Paoli on +44 (0) 20 8987 7218 or at kpaoli@idc.com. Alternatively, contact your local IDC office or visit www.idc.com.

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