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11 Apr 2016

PC Shipment Decline Continued in First Quarter as Expected, with Hopes for Improvement Depending on Commercial Replacements & Economic Stability, According to IDC

FRAMINGHAM, Mass., April 11, 2016 – Worldwide PC shipments totaled 60.6 million units in the first quarter of 2016 (1Q16), a year-on-year decline of 11.5%, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. Shipments were in line with conservative expectations for a decline of 11.3%, and anticipated a relatively weak environment during the first half of 2016 as Windows 10 enterprise upgrades largely remained in pilot phase while consumer demand remains weak. The volatility in stocks, commodities and currencies also helped depress shipments.

Inventory reductions in the channel, which were a headwind through much of 2015, seem to be wrapping up. Similarly, some rebound in economic conditions should support both commercial and consumer activity going forward. Nevertheless, channels, vendors, and users remain cautious about new purchases. Overall, Asia/Pacific and EMEA performed slightly better than forecast, while the Americas pulled down worldwide results.

"In the short term, the PC market must still grapple with limited consumer interest and competition from other infrastructure upgrades in the commercial market," said Jay Chou, Research Manager, IDC Worldwide PC Tracker, "Nevertheless, IDC still projects total business IT spending to grow compared to 2015, and as we head toward the end of 2016 things should start picking up in terms of Windows 10 pilots turning into actual PC purchases."

PC shipments to the U.S. fell 5.8% to 13.6 million units in 1Q16. PC channels remained challenged with aging inventory although inventory churn has reportedly improved throughout the last two quarters. Market inhibitors that were present in 4Q15 lingered through 1Q16. These issues included softened demand due to global economic concerns, the Windows 10 free upgrade path stalling some consumer PC purchases, and increased attrition towards detachables. "Demand for PCs in the U.S. remains sluggish," said IDC Research Director, Devices & Displays, Linn Huang. "However, we should be entering a period of reprieve. Peak corporate and education buying seasons have historically started in the second quarter. With some IT buyers thinking about early Windows 10 transitions and with the potential continued ascent of Chromebooks in U.S. K-12, the PC market should experience a modest rebound in the coming months."

Regional Highlights

United States – Dell overtook HP Inc. for the first place ranking for the first time since the third quarter of 2009, ending a run of 25 consecutive quarters with HP Inc. at the top of the U.S. PC market. Dell's U.S. PC shipments rose 4.2% year over year to 3.48 million – good for a 25.6% share. HP Inc's PC shipments to the U.S. fell 14.1% to 3.44 million units (25.3% share). Lenovo continued its aggressive growth trajectory as its 1.9 million units shipped represented 21.1% year-over-year growth and accounted for 14.1% of total U.S. PC shipments. Apple's Mac shipments rose 5.6% year over year to nearly 1.8 million (13.0% market share). Acer's shipments fell 10.4% to 0.7 million, but the company overtook ASUS and Toshiba to regain a seat in the U.S. top five.

Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) – EMEA PC shipments declined double-digit year over year, which was in line with the forecast. 1Q16 was the last quarter to suffer from an unfavorable year-over-year comparison due to large Bing shipments in the prior year, which significantly affected the consumer market. Windows 10 had a limited impact on PC renewals as its rapid adoption came mostly from free software upgrades. The new products launched with Windows 10 and Skylake architecture supported sales growth but could not reverse the overall negative trend.

Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) – The APeJ PC market continued to decline as end user demand remained soft, while vendors focused on inventory clearing. Economic uncertainty weighed on the overall market performance across the region, with businesses limiting their investments and many commercial projects being postponed or downsized, while consumer spending was dampened by currency fluctuations and increases in pricing.

Japan – The market performed slightly better than forecast but still had negative growth. Slowing economic outlook and continued uncertainty over currency rates further dampened demand.

Vendor Highlights

Lenovo maintained its top global rank for the quarter with U.S. growth in excess of 20%. However, the company faced a challenging quarter in all other markets with international shipments declining 12.5% from the prior year, bringing total worldwide volume down 8.5% from a year ago.

HP Inc. remained the number 2 vendor as it navigated its separation from HP Enterprise during the quarter. The company struggled with some inventory issues in North America and a continued slow market in Latin America, with total worldwide shipments declining nearly 11% from the prior year.

Dell remained the number 3 vendor globally, outperforming the market with a decline of just 2%, and also pulled to the lead in the United States market. Strong shipments of notebook PCs helped the vendor achieve the best quarter among the top 5 vendors.

Apple took the fourth spot worldwide and continued to outperform the market, thanks to solid growth in North America.

ASUS declined 8.3% from a year ago and dropped to the number 5 position. North America still saw decent uptake, but the vendor faced challenges elsewhere, especially EMEA.



Top 5 Vendors, Worldwide PC Shipments, First Quarter 2016 (Preliminary) (Shipments are in thousands of units)

Vendor

1Q16 Shipments

1Q16 Market Share

1Q15 Shipments

1Q15 Market Share

1Q16/1Q15 Growth

1. Lenovo

12,178

20.1%

13,305

19.4%

-8.5%

2. HP Inc.

11,603

19.2%

13,006

19.0%

-10.8%

3. Dell

9,017

14.9%

9,201

13.4%

-2.0%

4. Apple

4,466

7.4%

4,560

6.7%

-2.1%

5. ASUS

4,392

7.2%

4,788

7.0%

-8.3%

Others

18,929

31.2%

23,611

34.5%

-19.8%

Total

60,584

100.0%

68,470

100.0%

-11.5%

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, April 11, 2016

Table notes follow the last table.



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Top 5 Vendors, United States PC Shipments, First Quarter 2016 (Preliminary) (Shipments are in thousands of units)

Vendor

1Q16 Shipments

1Q16 Market Share

1Q15 Shipments

1Q15 Market Share

1Q16/1Q15 Growth

1. Dell

3,483

25.6%

3,343

23.1%

4.2%

2. HP Inc.

3,445

25.3%

4,011

27.7%

-14.1%

3. Lenovo

1,920

14.1%

1,586

11.0%

21.1%

4. Apple

1,765

13.0%

1,672

11.6%

5.6%

5. Acer Group

711

5.2%

794

5.5%

-10.4%

Others

2,301

16.9%

3,064

21.2%

-24.9%

Total

13,625

100.0%

14,468

100.0%

-5.8%

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, April 11, 2016

Table Notes:

  • Some IDC estimates are prior to financial earnings reports.
  • Shipments include shipments to distribution channels or end users. OEM sales are counted under the vendor/brand under which they are sold.
  • PCs include Desktops, Portables, Ultraslim Notebooks, Chromebooks, and Workstations and do not include handhelds, x86 Servers and Tablets (i.e. iPad, or Tablets with detachable keyboards running either Chrome, Windows or Android). Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods.

IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in over 80 countries by vendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and user segment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as well as price band and installed base data.

For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.

About IDC Trackers

IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC's Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly excel deliverables and on-line query tools. The IDC Tracker Charts app allows users to view data charts from the most recent IDC Tracker products on their iPhone and iPad. The IDC Tracker Chart app is also available for Android Phones and Android Tablets.

About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,100 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading technology media, research, and events company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC.

Coverage
Contact
For more information, contact:

Jay Chou
jchou@idc.com
650-350-6464

Linn Huang
lhuang@idc.com
650-350-6436

Loren Loverde
lloverde@idc.com
305-351-3115

Michael Shirer
press@idc.com
508-935-4200