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24 Aug 2017

Personal Computing Device Market Expected to Continue Its Decline with a 5-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate of -1.7%, According to IDC

FRAMINGHAM, Mass., August 24, 2017 – According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, global shipments of personal computing devices (PCDs), comprised of traditional PCs (a combination of desktop, notebook, and workstations) and tablets (slates and detachables), are expected to continue a slight decline through 2021. The results show PCD shipments declining from 435.1 million units in 2016 to 398.3 million in 2021, which represents a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1.7%.

While growth for the overall PCD market is not expected at any point in the forecast, there are a few interesting trends that continue to develop. Apart from 2018, notebook PCs show small but steady year-over-year growth throughout the forecast. Detachable tablets and convertible notebooks, which represent newer more versatile designs, will be the fastest growing segments in PCD with a 5-year CAGR of over 14%. Ultraslim notebooks are also expected to continue to grow quickly, with a CAGR of 11.8% through 2021. The other relative bright spot in the forecast is the commercial segment, which stabilizes in 2017 and shows growth in 2019 and beyond.

"Looking at the PCD market collectively can be challenging because of all the different product category trends that are unfolding," said Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers. "When looking at tablets we continue to expect that category to decline as the appeal of slate devices diminishes and life cycles for these devices look more like those of PCs 4-5 years ago. Detachable tablets will continue to grow, but we've reduced the short-term forecast on the assumption that OEMs are making a slower transition from notebook PCs to detachables than previously expected. The good news for this space is that both consumers and commercial buyers are opening up to Windows 10, and we are already at a point where Windows detachables represents more than 50% of shipments in the category. This should continue throughout the forecast."

"The traditional PC market continues a steady transition to newer slim and convertible designs," said Loren Loverde, vice president with IDC's Worldwide Personal Computing Device Tracker and Tracker Forecasting. "Nevertheless, commercial and particularly consumer users continue to stretch the life of older PCs – constraining their spending and spreading usage across a portfolio of devices. Shipments could pick up if accelerators like economic conditions, adoption of gaming, VR, and Windows 10 speed up, but even in the best case, overall growth would likely remain limited."

Personal Computing Device Forecast, 2016-2021 (shipments in millions)

Form Factor

2016 Shipments

2016 Share

2021 Shipments*

2021 Share*

2016-2021 CAGR*

Desktop + DT & Datacenter Workstation

103.4

23.8%

86.3

21.7%

-3.5%

Notebook + Mobile Workstation

156.8

36.0%

162.1

40.7%

0.7%

Detachable Tablet

21.5

4.9%

41.9

10.5%

14.3%

Slate Tablet

153.4

35.3%

108.1

27.1%

-6.8%

Grand Total

435.1

100.0%

398.3

100.0%

-1.7%













Traditional PC

260.2

59.8%

248.4

62.4%

-0.9%

Traditional PC + Detachable

281.6

64.7%

290.3

72.9%

0.6%

Total Tablet (Slate + Detachable)

174.9

40.2%

149.9

37.6%

-3.0%

Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, August 24, 2017

* Forecast data



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IDC's Worldwide Quarterly P ersonal C omputing Device Tracker gathers data in more than 90 countries and provides detailed, timely, and accurate information on the global personal computing device market. This includes data and insight into global trends around desktops, notebooks, detachable tablets, slate tablets, and workstations. In addition to insightful analysis, the program delivers quarterly market share data and a five-year forecast by country. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis. For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.

About IDC Trackers

IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC's Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly excel deliverables and on-line query tools.

About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,100 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading media, data and marketing services company that activates and engages the most influential technology buyers. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn.

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For more information, contact:

Michael Shirer
press@idc.com
508-935-4200

Linn Huang
lhuang@idc.com
650-350-6436

Jay Chou
jchou@idc.com
650-350-6464

Ryan Reith
rreith@idc.com
+1 650-350-6242

Loren Loverde
lloverde@idc.com
508-935-4200