07 Mar 2019
Personal Computing Device Shipments Forecast to Continue Their Slow Decline with a Five-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate of -1.2%, According to IDC
FRAMINGHAM, Mass., March 7, 2019 – According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, unit shipments for the worldwide personal computing devices (PCD) market, comprised of Traditional PCs and Tablets, are expected to decline 3.3% in 2019. The market contraction comes on the heels of 2018, which also saw an overall decline in shipments despite good growth for commercial PCs. The decline in shipment volume is expected to continue throughout the forecast period as the market shrinks to 372.6 million units in 2023 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -1.2%.
Detachables are expected to grow modestly over the five-year forecast with a CAGR of 4.6%. IDC believes this product category will have a stronger impact in the commercial segment as vendors increasingly focus their attention on enterprise and education markets for their sales. Chrome-based devices, which tend to be education centric, are expected to find some traction as more detachable Chrome tablets enter the scene. Slate tablets will continue to decline with a CAGR of -4.4% with the market becoming increasingly concentrated towards the holiday quarters. Competition from key players has resulted in more brands reducing their presence or exiting the market altogether.
Traditional PCs will continue along a tough landscape with declining desktop demand offset by emerging notebook opportunities, stabilizing with a slight CAGR decline of -0.4% between 2019 and 2023. Some inhibitors that surfaced near the end of 2018 will still be in play in the early part of 2019. Though easing up, the CPU shortage may hamper some entry-level device volume. Gaming PCs, whose momentum had been building for much of 2018, will also face some short-term challenges as the market works through older GPU inventory and the gaming ecosystem warms up to Nvidia's latest offerings. On a brighter note, although the commercial PC market is expected to see a small dip in 2019 compared to the previous year, the commercial notebook forecast has been raised for 2019. IDC expects a sizable amount of last-minute Windows 10 migration projects to be completed this year, especially among SMBs with an aging installed base. Finally, advances in the PC experience will drive most of the PCD device conversation, further cementing notebooks as the dominant form factor and taking up nearly 46% of the PCD market by 2023.
"Notebooks/Mobile Workstations and Detachable Tablets are expected to take 53% of all PCD shipments by 2023, a clear majority," said Jay Chou, research manager of the PCD Tracker at IDC. "Even as personal computing takes place on a myriad of devices and emerging venues like the cloud, IDC believes there remains a place for portable devices that can evolve to fit changing tastes while still retaining important but under-appreciated features like a physical keyboard."
"While the long-run PCD market remains in persistent decline, the constitution of the market continues to churn for the better," added Linn Huang, research director for Devices and Displays at IDC. "And with ray-tracing ramping up and 5G-connected, dual-screen, and foldable devices on the not-too-distant horizon, consumers and professionals will likely find something compelling at the premium end."
Personal Computing Device Forecast, 2019-2023 (shipments in millions)
Desktop PC + Desktop & Datacenter Workstation
Notebook + Mobile Workstation
Traditional PC + Detachable
Total Tablet (Slate + Detachable)
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, March 7, 2019
* Notes: All figures represent forecast data.
** Traditional PCs include Desktop, Notebook, and Workstation.
IDC's Worldwide Quarterly P ersonal C omputing Device Tracker gathers data in more than 90 countries and provides detailed, timely, and accurate information on the global personal computing device market. This includes data and insight into global trends around desktops, notebooks, detachable tablets, slate tablets, and workstations. In addition to insightful analysis, the program delivers quarterly market share data and a five-year forecast by country. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis.
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International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,100 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly-owned subsidiary of IDG, the world's leading media, data and marketing services company that activates and engages the most influential technology buyers. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn.
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