25 May 2021
Despite the Global Semiconductor Shortage, the PC Market Continues to Surge with Expected Growth of 18.1% in 2021, According to IDC
NEEDHAM, Mass., May 25, 2021 – Despite ongoing concerns around semiconductor shortages the PC market continues to be one of the many consumer technology markets that is thriving. According to a new forecast from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, shipments of PCs are expected to grow 18.1% in 2021 with shipments of just over 357 million units. While IDC still expects PC growth to drop slightly in 2022 (-2.9%), the overall five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) remains positive at 3%.
"We continue to get an abundance of questions about the growing semiconductor shortage and its impact on PCs, but it is important to peel back the onion because there is a lot happening underneath the PC supply chain," said Ryan Reith, program vice president with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "We don't debate that the overall semiconductor market is constrained right now, but for the overall PC market it is a very different narrative than the years leading up to the pandemic. Prior to 2020, the market was undergoing CPU shortages and to a lesser extent tight memory and panel supply. Now the focus is around lower-priced components like notebook panel driver ICs, audio codecs, sensors, and power management ICs (PMICs). Nonetheless, without 100% of the parts; a finished system will not ship, so a bottleneck is a bottleneck."
"There is a common denominator across the parts in short supply (auto ICs, sensors, PMICs, display drivers), which is that they use the same technology of 40nm or older nodes," said Mario Morales, program vice president, Semiconductors. "Mature technology nodes account for more than 50% of all the capacity in the semiconductor industry and suppliers are only gradually increasing capacity as they prioritize on the largest segments of their business and invest more on mainstream and leading-edge nodes. IDC expects that shortages will begin to ease by the end of Q3 this year. A broader upstream balance of the industry is not expected until the first half of 2022."
As things progress there is some common ground among the three major segments in the PC market: consumer, education, and commercial. All of these are in desperate need of inventory. From IDC's perspective, the consumer segment has the biggest upside looking forward compared to pre-pandemic levels, followed by education, and then commercial. Most regions around the world are still carrying channel inventory that is well below normal and cancelled orders are not part of today's discussions. Demand remains high and supply remains constrained.
"As the component shortages continue into next year, we anticipate at least some of the buyers will settle for desktops in place of notebooks as the urgency of demand for any kind of PC remains quite high," said Jitesh Ubrani research manager for IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers. "Longer term, the consumer refresh cycle is also expected to be pulled in slightly as the pandemic has raised the profile of PCs and consumers continue to spend more time and dollars on PC gaming and content consumption."
Note: PCs include Desktops, Notebooks, and Workstations and do not include Tablets or x86 Servers. Detachable Tablets and Slate Tablets are part of the Personal Computing Device Tracker but are not addressed in this press release.
IDC's Worldwide Quarterly P ersonal C omputing Device Tracker gathers data in more than 90 countries and provides detailed, timely, and accurate information on the global personal computing device market. This includes data and insight into global trends around desktops, notebooks, detachable tablets, slate tablets, and workstations. In addition to insightful analysis, the program delivers quarterly market share data and a five-year forecast by country. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis.
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About IDC Trackers
IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC's Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly Excel deliverables and on-line query tools.
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International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,100 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world's leading tech media, data, and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.
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