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Publication date: 15 Nov 2022

IDC FutureScape: Top 10 Predictions for the Future of Digital Innovation


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NEEDHAM, Mass., November 15, 2022 – The COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated how digital technology and innovation can deliver resiliency, revenue, and opportunity to the enterprise in the face of crisis. Now, as we face additional global challenges, such as war, inflation, the threat of recession, and ongoing supply chain disruptions, enterprise relationships with technology will be more critical than ever. International Data Corporation (IDC) anticipates the emergence of a divide between organizations that are able to scale development and delivery of digital innovation and those that cannot. Enterprises that deliver digital innovation will emerge as leaders in their market sectors.

As enterprises execute their transitions from digital transformation technology investment strategies to focusing on running digital businesses, a critical enabler will be the ability to innovate by developing differentiated and disruptive technologies. Data and data analytics will play increasingly important roles. In IDC's view, companies that acquire the right data sets and apply the right analytics to derive key insights and build desirable capabilities will achieve desired business outcomes.

IDC's research supports this view. The rate of innovation in organizations with excellent enterprise intelligence was on average 2.5x faster than organizations with poor enterprise intelligence, according to IDC's August 2021 Future of Intelligence Survey. Getting the data and analytics equation right, however, will require partnerships, rigor, efficiency, and ethics – all areas that are addressed in IDC's Future of Digital Innovation predictions.

"If the pandemic didn't force an organization to pivot toward digital innovation, the multitude of current headwinds ranging from inflation to war should," said Nancy Gohring, research director, Future of Digital Innovation at IDC. "Winners and losers in each sector will be determined by their ability to deliver digital innovation at scale — ethically, sustainably, and repeatedly."

IDC's top 10 predictions for the Future of Digital Innovation 2022 are:

Prediction 1: By 2024, the top 5 companies in each sector will be those that used technology to innovate their way out of a global crisis such as recession or supply chain disruption.

Prediction 2: By 2026, 10% of companies will successfully incentivize consumers to share closely held data to devise nontraditional offerings, improve customer experience, and grow market share.

Prediction 3: By 2024, 35% of businesses that build innovative algorithms to glean intelligence from unique data sets will deliver successful new product offerings and pricing models and tap new customer segments.

Prediction 4: By 2028, new efficiencies will allow developers to increase the share of time they spend on innovation from 25% of their development-related work to 75%.

Prediction 5: By 2028, recurring revenue from smart products will make up 65% of revenue for companies that sell "dumb" and "smart" versions of the same products.

Prediction 6: By 2026, 75% of market leaders will have systemic, structured digital innovation programs and investments that support ongoing iterative innovation, enabling growth, scale, agility, and resilience.

Prediction 7: By 2026, companies that share data with business partners to leverage their collective data sets for new revenue potential will grow revenue 10% faster than those that don't.

Prediction 8: 85% of CEOs of the G2000 will demand senior leaders deliver data-driven insight into innovation activity including developer efficiency and business outcomes by 2025.

Prediction 9: In 2027, the share of non-technology-focused people in companies who will spend 10 hours or more a week contributing to digital innovation will grow from 5% today to 45%.

Prediction 10: In 2028, 15 large companies will make headlines for using digital technologies to manipulate customer experiences to spur upgrades and replacements.

IDC's Future of Digital Innovation predictions are presented in full detail in the report, IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Future of Digital Innovation 2023 Predictions (IDC #US48598522). Copies of this report are available to qualified members of the media.

An on-demand replay of IDC's Worldwide Future of Digital Innovation 2023 Predictions webcast will be available as one of more than 40 FutureScape webinars that will address the CIO Agenda, Digital Business, Artificial Intelligence, Cloud, Sustainable Strategies and Technologies, and a range of industry-specific and Future of X topics. To register for any of these webinars, please visit

About IDC FutureScape

IDC FutureScape presents information about technologies, markets, and ecosystems that help CIOs better understand future trends and their impacts on the enterprise. They also present guidance on complex, fast-moving environments and offer prescriptive, actionable recommendations. Every year, IDC identifies the key external drivers that will influence businesses in the coming years. An IDC FutureScape establishes 10 predictions derived from these drivers, analyzes the impacts on the IT organization, and proposes recommendations for the next five years. To learn more about IDC FutureScape, please visit:

About IDC's Future of Digital Innovation Practice

IDC's Future of Digital Innovation research practice helps organizations build and execute the planning, sourcing, development, and distribution strategies necessary to become high-performance software producers. Operating as "digital innovation factories," enterprises will embed software in their products and services to create greater value for their customers and better compete in their own industries. To learn more about IDC's Future of Digital Innovation research practices, please visit

About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world's leading tech media, data, and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.