TECH SUPPLIER Aug 2021 - Market Forecast - Doc # CA47056221

Canadian Wireless Services Forecast, 2021–2025: Wireless Wars 18

By: Lawrence SurteesResearch Vice President, Communications

Table of Contents

IDC Market Forecast Figure

Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue Snapshot

Executive Summary

Advice for Technology Suppliers

Market Forecast

Canadian Wireless Revenue and Subscriber Performance 2020

Table: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue, 2020: Comparison of Actual 2020 Results and September 2020 Communications Market Model (C$M)

Figure: Canadian Telecom Services Revenue, 2010–2020: Wireless Versus Wireline

Wireless Subscriber Growth

Figure: Canadian Wireless Subscriber Growth, 1997-2020

Wireless Services Sector Forecast, 2021–2025

Continued Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic

COVID-19 Restrictions Decimate Wireless Roaming Revenue

Figure: Ontario Average Weekly COVID-19 Cases, January 1 to June 10, 2021, and Impact of Various Public Health Measures on Case Projection till August 13, 2021

Mutated Variants of Concern Add to Uncertainty

Wireless Revenue Forecast, 2021–2025

Table: Canadian Consumer and Enterprise Wireless Subscriber Forecast, 2020-2025 (000)

Figure: Canadian Population and Wireless Subscriber Forecast, 2020-2025 (M and %)

Dependency on Wireless Still Increasing

Figure: Canadian Wireless Subscribers Versus Fixed Telephone Line Customers, 2003-2020

Figure: Canadian Wireless Versus Local Access Line Connections Forecast, 2020-2025

Wireless Customer Segment Revenue

Table: Canadian Wireless Customer Segment Revenue, 2020–2025 (C$M)

Regional Wireless Revenue

Table: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue by Region, 2020–2025 (C$M)

Wireless Network Coverage

Figure: Canadian 4G LTE Network Coverage by Number of Providers, 2020

5G Network Rollouts

Figure: Big 3 Canadian Incumbent Wireless Carriers Coverage by Network Type, Mid-2021

Figure: Canadian Wireless Revenue Versus Capex, 2006-2021 (C$M)

Figure: Canadian Cell Tower Counts for Major Canadian Wireless Providers, June 2019 to November 2020 (Monthly)

Table: Canadian Cell Sites by Carrier, November 2020

Wireless Data Forecast

Table: Canadian Telecom Wireless Services, Including Wireless Data by Endpoint, 2020–2025 (C$M)

Figure: Canadian Wireless Voice Versus Data Revenue Forecast, 2019-2025 (Including Wholesale)


Figure: Comparison of Canadian Wireless Provider Blended ARPU, 1995-2020

Table: Canadian Wireless Subscriber, Revenue, and ARPU Forecast, 2020-2025

Figure: Canadian Wireless ARPU Forecast, 2020-2025: Voice Versus Data and Blended

Market Share

Figure: Canadian Wireless Subscriber Market Share, 2020 (% Subscribers)

Prepaid Versus Postpaid Subscriber Mix

Figure: Canadian Incumbent Wireless Carriers' Subscribers by Plan Type, 2020

Market Context

Drivers and Inhibitors


Wireless Substitution

Next-Generation 5G Wireless Broadband and Enterprise DX

Figure: 5G Enables Network Slicing
Figure: 5G Network Slice API-Enabled Ecosystem
Figure: 5G-Enabled Mobile Edge Computing
Figure: 5G Wireless Enterprise Use Cases
Figure: Wireless Latency Based on Location of Network Element
Figure: Enterprise Vertical Market 5G Wireless Use Cases for DX With IoT
Figure: Canadian Wireless Consumer Versus Enterprise Revenue and Forecast, 2015-2025 (C$M)

Internet of Things Adoption

Figure: 5G Wireless and IoT


Unlimited Wireless Data Plans

Table: Canadian Unlimited Wireless Data Plans, 2021

5G Wireless mmWave Spectrum Allocation Lags

Figure: 5G Spectrum Frequency Bands Trade-Offs
Figure: Canadian 5G Priority 1 Spectrum Release Timing, 2018–2022

Significant Market Developments

Figure: Communication Satellite Orbit and Latency Comparison: Telesat LEO Constellation

Figure: Comparison of Four Largest LEO Constellations Global Coverage

Changes from Prior Forecast

Table: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue, 2016–2025 (Including Wholesale): Comparison of August 2020 and August 2021 Forecasts (C$M)

Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue Growth, 2016–2025 (Including Wholesale): Comparison of August 2020 and August 2021 Forecasts

Market Definition


Telecom Taxonomy and Service Definitions

Wireless Segment

Wireless Data Segmentation

Customer Segments



Enterprise Size Definitions

Wireless Wholesale


Difficulty Reconciling Forecasts with CRTC Market Data

Related Research


Related Links