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Table of Contents

IDC FutureScape Figure

Figure: IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Federal and Central Governments 2018 Top 10 Predictions

Executive Summary

IDC FutureScape Predictions

Summary of External Drivers

Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers

Prediction 1: By 2021, National Governments That Use Human-Centered Design to Transform Customer Service and Operations Will Attain 50% Higher Service Delivery and Efficiency Improvement Metrics Than Those Without a Human-Centric Policy

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 2: By 2018, 40% of National Governments Will Plan to Test and/or Pilot Private or Permissioned Blockchain Models to Aggregate and Track Protected Data, Enabling Trusted Data Sharing Between Organizations

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 3: In 2018, 60% of National Government IT Cloud Spending Will Be Spent on Transition Strategies That Address Workload Migration, Architecture Requirements, Data Sanitization, Staff Readiness, Vendor Certifications, and Continuity of Services

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 4: By 2020, 50% of Federal and National Governments Will Establish Legislation on Testing and Performance of SAE Levels 4 and 5 of Driver Automation, Shortening the Timelines for the Development and Mass Availability of Autonomous Vehicles by 12–18 Months

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 5: By 2020, 20% of National Governments Will Revamp Their Metadata Strategy to Streamline How Data Is Stored, Indexed, and Searched as the Volume of Unstructured Data Begins to Significantly Slow Compute Time and Speed of Data Searches

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 6: Only 14% of the World's Population Will Have Access to Broadband Connectivity by 2019; Digital Equity Will Reach a Tipping Point, Resulting in 50% of National Governments Developing Programs That Use Wireless Technology Innovations to Reach Underserved Populations

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 7: During 2018, 50% of National Governments Will Roll Back, Postpone, or Cancel Plans to Introduce e-Elections, Such as Electronic Voting Stations and Internet Voting, Because of Cybersecurity Fears and Concerns About Potential Election Tampering

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 8: By 2020, 20% of National Governments Globally Will Be Moving Toward Centralized, Whole-of-Government Shared Services and Procurement Platforms Due to Tightening Budgets and the Need for Interoperability Across Government Programs and Greater Administrative Oversight

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 9: By 2019, 30% of National Governments Will Have Reworked Their Privacy and Data Governance Policies to Protect Citizen Information as AI and Machine Learning Connect and Combine Troves of Data, Compromising Confidentiality and Creating and Disclosing Personally Identifiable Information

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction10: By 2020, as Artificial Intelligence Is More Widely Adopted in Back-Office Systems and Citizen Self-Services, 15% of National Government Workers Will Shift Their Job Roles to More Complex, Idiosyncratic Tasks, Problems, and Interactions

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Advice for Technology Buyers

External Drivers: Detail

Accelerating DX — Technology-Centric Transformation Altering Business and Society

Human Versus Machine — The Impact of AI and Automation

Global Volatility — Political, Social, and Economic Disturbance

Sense, Compute, Actuate — The New Data-Centric Paradigm

Cyberthreats — Theft, Ransom, and Cyberattack on the Rise

The Future Workforce — Global Demand for Digital Talent

Innovation Impasse — Legacy Systems Constraining Transformation

Pace of Change — Technology Capabilities Enable Sustainable Change at the Speed of Digital Business

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