Table of Contents

IDC FutureScape Figure

Figure: IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Connected Vehicle 2019 Top 10 Predictions

Executive Summary

IDC FutureScape Predictions

Summary of External Drivers

Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers

Prediction 1: By 2024, 10% of All Rides Completed via Ride-Sharing Platforms in Major Cities Will Be Provided by Automated Vehicles

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 2: By 2020, Vehicle Manufacturers Operating Levels 4 and 5 Autonomy Fleets Will Require 50MB of Cellular Data per Hour for Safe Vehicle Operation and to Ensure a Consistent Level of Rider Satisfaction

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 3: By 2023, 35% of Large Transit Authorities Will Have Integrated with Transportation Network Companies to Improve and Expand Passenger Services and to Reduce Transit Agency Inefficiencies and Service Gaps

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 4: The Average Cost of the Additional Hardware Required to Enable Level 4 Autonomy Will Drop from $12,000 per Vehicle in 2020 to $8,000 per Vehicle in 2023

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 5: By 2022, 5% of Urban Households Worldwide Will Have Reduced Car Ownership by at Least One Vehicle, Replacing Dedicated Vehicle Usage with Mobility-as-a-Service and Public Transport Options

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 6: Because of Increases in Driver Assistance and Workload Data Sharing via Cloud Platforms, 20% of OEMs Implementing Data Management and Monetization Strategies Will Increase Their Market Share by 2023

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 7: By 2021, 60% of Tier 1 Suppliers Will Leverage Real-Time Data Across the Value Chain and Will Have Increased Their Focus on New Product Collaboration with OEMs to Reduce Time to Market by 35%

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 8: By 2024, 20% of Global Autonomous Fleet Owners Will Network Vehicle Digital Twins into Their Ecosystems to Ensure Safe City and Town Operation While Achieving a 5% Cost-of-Quality Reduction

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 9: Because of Rising Direct and Indirect Vehicle Ownership Costs, by 2022, Personal Urban Miles Driven Will Have Contracted by 15% and Urban Car Sales Will Have Fallen

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 10: By 2021, 20% of Major Cities Will Have Begun Implementations to Support Automated Vehicles, Leading to Increased Live AV Pilots, Faster Transit Innovations, and Improved Road Safety

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Advice for Technology Buyers

External Drivers: Detail

Emerging Autonomy — Learning to Live with AI

Next Chapter of DX — Technology-Driven Transformation Altering Business and Society

Platforms, Platforms, Platforms — Industry Competes for Innovation at Scale

Reimagining the Material World — Revolutionized Processes Expand Technology Reach

Rising Customer Expectations — More Convenience, Customization, and Control

Sense, Compute, Actuate — Turning Data into Value

The Race to Innovate — Speed of Change, Delivery, and Operations Separates Thrivers and Survivors

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