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Oct 2018 - IDC FutureScape - Doc # US44403818

IDC FutureScape: Worldwide IT Industry 2019 Predictions

By: Frank GensSenior Vice President & Chief Analyst, Crawford Del PretePresident, George MironescuSenior Research Manager, Accelerated Application Delivery & European Cloud Platforms, Gerry BrownResearch Director, European Software Group, Larry CarvalhoResearch Director, Platform as a Service, Arnal DayaratnaResearch Director, Software Development, Frank Della RosaResearch Director, SaaS and Cloud, Stephen ElliotProgram Vice President, Management Software and DevOps, Shawn FitzgeraldResearch Director, Digital Transformation Strategies, Maureen FlemingProgram Vice President, Integration and Process Automation, Al GillenGroup Vice President, Software Development and Open Source, Cathy HuangSenior Research Manager, Services and Security, IDC Asia/Pacific, Ritu JyotiProgram Vice President, Artificial Intelligence Strategies, Christopher KisselResearch Director, Security Products, Deepak MohanResearch Director, Infrastructure Systems, Platforms and Technologies Group, Ashish NadkarniGroup Vice President, Infrastructure Systems, Platforms and Technologies Group, Eric NewmarkProgram Vice President - SaaS, Enterprise Apps, Industry Cloud, and Digital Commerce, Robert ParkerGroup Vice President, Zachary RabelSenior Research Analyst, Shane RauResearch Vice President, Computing Semiconductors, Peter RuttenResearch Manager, Infrastructure Systems, Platforms and Technologies Group, David SchubmehlResearch Director, Cognitive/Artificial Intelligence Systems, Carrie SolingerSr. Research Analyst, Cognitive Systems and Content Analytics Research, Jennifer ThomsonResearch Director, European Services, Dan VessetGroup Vice President, Analytics and Information Management, Richard L. VillarsResearch Vice President, Datacenter & Cloud, Stephen MintonVice President, Customer Insights & Analysis, James WesterResearch Director, Worldwide Blockchain Strategies, Hayley Sutherland

Table of Contents

IDC FutureScape Figure

Figure: IDC FutureScape: Worldwide IT Industry 2019 Top 10 Predictions

Executive Summary

IDC FutureScape Predictions

Figure: Three Chapters of the 3rd Platform Era

Figure: A New Wave of Multiplied Innovation Impact

Summary of External Drivers

Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers

Prediction 1: By 2022, 60%+ of Global GDP Will Be Digitized, with Growth in Every Industry Driven by Digitally Enhanced Offerings, Operations, and Relationships and Almost $7 Trillion in IT-Related Spending in 2019–2022

Associated Drivers

IT and Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 2: By 2023, 75% of All IT Spending Will Be on 3rd Platform Technologies, as Over 90% of All Enterprises Build "Digital Native" IT Environments to Thrive in the Digital Economy

Associated Drivers

IT and Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 3: By 2022, Over 40% of Organizations' Cloud Deployments Will Include Edge Computing and 25% of Endpoint Devices and Systems Will Execute AI Algorithms

Associated Drivers

IT and Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 4: By 2022, 90% of All New Apps Will Feature Microservices Architectures That Improve the Ability to Design, Debug, Update, and Leverage Third-Party Code; 35% of All Production Apps Will Be Cloud Native

Associated Drivers

IT and Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 5: By 2024, a New Class of Professional Developers Producing Code Without Custom Scripting Will Expand the Developer Population by 30%, Accelerating Digital Transformation

Associated Drivers

IT and Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 6: From 2018 to 2023 — with New Tools/Platforms, More Developers, Agile Methods, and Lots of Code Reuse — 500 Million New Logical Apps Will Be Created, Equal to the Number Built Over the Past 40 Years

Associated Drivers

IT and Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 7: By 2022, 25% of Public Cloud Computing Will Be Based on Non-x86 Processors (Including Quantum); by 2022, Organizations Will Spend More on Vertical SaaS Apps than Horizontal Apps

Associated Drivers

IT and Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 8: By 2024, AI-Enabled User Interfaces and Process Automation Will Replace One-Third of Today's Screen-Based Apps; by 2022, 30% of Enterprises Will Use Conversational Speech Tech for Customer Engagement

Associated Drivers

IT and Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 9: By 2022, 50% of Servers Will Encrypt Data at Rest and in Motion, Over 50% of Security Alerts Will Be Handled by AI-Powered Automation, and 150 Million People Will Have Blockchain-Based Digital Identities

Associated Drivers

IT and Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 10: By 2022, the Top 4 Cloud "Megaplatforms" Will Host 80% of IaaS/PaaS Deployments, But by 2024, 90% of G1000 Organizations Will Mitigate Lock-In Through Multicloud/Hybrid Technologies and Tools

Associated Drivers

IT and Business Impact

Guidance

Advice for Technology Buyers

External Drivers: Detail

Next Chapter of DX: Technology-Driven Transformation Altering Business and Society

The Race to Innovate: Speed of Change, Delivery, and Operations Separates Thrivers and Survivors

Platforms, Platforms, Platforms: Industry Competes for Innovation at Scale

Sense, Compute, Actuate: Turning Data into Value

New Nature of Risk: Innovation Requires New Thinking in Security and Risk Management

Emerging Autonomy: Learning to Live With AI

Cyber Insecurity: Theft, Cyberattack, and Negligence Create a Crisis of Digital Trust

Rising Customer Expectations: More Convenience, Customization, and Control

The Future of Work: Bridging the Digital Talent Gap

Legacy Inertia: Retrofit the Old into the DX World

Learn More

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Content


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