Table of Contents

IDC FutureScape Figure

Figure: IDC FutureScape: Worldwide National Government 2020 Top 10 Predictions

Executive Summary

IDC FutureScape Predictions

Summary of External Drivers

Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers

Prediction 1: With Strategic Planning and Governance of Algorithms, Ethics, and Change Management, by 2023, 35% of Agencies Will Prevent Misuse of AI, Transgression of Rights, and Ensure Worker Engagement

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 2: Without Intelligent, Secure, Scalable DX Platforms, by 2022, 60% of Agencies Will Fail to Enhance Constituent Services, Streamline Operations, Empower Employees, and Meet Mandates

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 3: From Birth Certificates to Driver's Licenses to Passports and Beyond, by 2023, 20% of Governments Will Issue Blockchain-Enabled Identities, Which Follow Citizens Through Life and Enable Benefits Access

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 4: By 2021, 75% of G20 Countries Will Grow Investments in Information Security Units That Address Social Engineering, Social Deception, Fake News, and Other Digital Propaganda

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 5: By 2023, 5G Will Boost the Creation of Mixed Reality, Autonomous Landscapes, and Edge-Based Ecosystems, Which Will Drive 25% of Socioeconomic Growth in Both Developed and Emerging Economies

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 6: By 2021, 30% of Agencies Will Embrace the Organizational Skills and Technological Innovations Impacting the Future of Work to Enhance Their Ability to Recruit, Train, and Retain Key Personnel

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 7: By 2024, 60% of Government Agencies Will Permit Citizens to Monitor Information That's Collected About Them, Offering Tools to Update Incorrect Information. But Security Info May Remain Opaque

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 8: By 2022, 20% of Government Agencies Will Use a Platform Approach to Develop Applications That Allow Citizens Easier Access to Services

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 9: By 2021, in Response to Pressure from Citizens and Advocacy Groups, 75% of Next-Gen Public Safety Technology Procurements Will Have Specifications Preemptively Scoped by Strict Policy Frameworks

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 10: By 2023, 25% of Governments Will Begin Processing Citizen Services in Real Time, Leveraging Better Customer Intelligence and Robotic Process Automation

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Advice for Technology Buyers

External Drivers: Detail

The Platform Economy: Competing at Hyperscale

Crisis of Digital Trust: Escalating Threats Mandates Strategic Responses

Geopolitical Risk: Societal and Economic Tensions Rise

Intelligence Everywhere: AI's Opportunity and Implications

Rising Customer Expectations: More Convenience, Customization, and Control

The Future of Work: Agile, Augmented, Borderless, and Reconfigurable

Economies of Intelligence: AI, Human, and Organizational "Learning" Fuels Asymmetrical Advantage

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