IDC FutureScape Figure

Figure: IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Retail 2021 Top 10 Predictions

Executive Summary

IDC FutureScape Predictions

Summary of External Drivers

Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers

Prediction 1: By 2021, Retailers Will Accelerate DX Programs by Two Years in Two Months by Embracing Cloud-First Principles, Third-Party Services, and Systems Integration Partnerships

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 2: By 2025, Digital Shelves, RT Inventory Visibility, Robotic Fulfillment, and Automated Checkout Will Accelerate Investment in Connected Store Edge Platforms by Two Years and 10x Over Current Forecast Levels

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 3: By 2023, 80% of Retailers Will Offer Contactless Payments and App-Based Scan-and-Pay Systems In-Store, Increasing Conversion Rates by 40% and Customer Retention Rates by 30%

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 4: By 2024, 40% of Retailers Will Strengthen Partnerships with Suppliers for Supply Chain Transparency, Reducing Product Life-Cycle Carbon Footprint by 30% and Increasing Customer Trust by 50%

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 5: By 2023, 50% of Retailers Will Extensively Use DevOps Practices and Tools, Paving the Way for Operating Like Software Companies

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 6: By 2023, Following Early Experimenters, Retailers Will Accelerate Intelligence Capabilities by Acquiring AI Technology Vendors for Their Own Competitive Advantage, Driving 5–10% Improvement in Growth

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 7: As a Result of the Pandemic, by 2022, Retailers Will Have Reversed the Promotional Arms Race, Reducing the Amount of Promotional Activity by 50%, Effectively Increasing Prices by 5% Across the Industry

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 8: By 2023, 75% of Grocery eCommerce Orders (Which Will Represent 15% of Sales) Will be Picked up Curbside or In-Store, Driving a 35% Increase in Investment in Onsite or Nearby Micro-Fulfillment Centers

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 9: By 2023, the COVID-19-Related Intersection of Safety and Security Will Drive Shared Retailer Funding and a 30% Lift in Spending Across Computer Vision, Biometrics, and Enhanced Video Surveillance

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 10: By 2023, a Major Retailer Will Announce a Completely Reimagined, Almost Completely Touchless, Contactless In-Store Experience, Leveraging Voice Activation and Gesture- and Motion-Sensitive Technologies

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Advice for Technology Buyers

External Drivers: Detail

Accelerated Disruption — Crisis, Resilience, and Opportunity

Strategic Innovation — Shaping the Future Enterprise Today

The Next Normal — Resilient Business and Operating Models

Digital Platform — Ecosystems at Scale

Crisis of Trust — Meeting Rising Expectations

Customer Engagement Redefined — Safe, Secure, and Sustainable Digital Experience

The Learning Organization — Asymmetrical Advantage

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