Inside Semicon

October split the screen. On one side, record profits. SK hynix reported ₩104.62 trillion in revenue and ₩83.33 trillion in operating profit, up 632%, and plans to return about ₩100 trillion to shareholders this year. Samsung reported ₩107.4 trillion in Q3 operating profit on ₩195.3 trillion in revenue, with its chip division earning ₩106.5 trillion, and says it is the world’s first tech company to top ₩100 trillion in a quarter. TSMC’s Q3 revenue rose 41.2% to $46.72 billion.

On the other side, stocks fell. On October 13, CXMT’s announcement of a denser memory design sent the Kospi down 5.5%, SK hynix down more than 10% and SoftBank down 8.5%, though one strategist called the reaction disproportionate, since CXMT hasn’t proven it can manufacture the design at scale.

So-what: Fundamentals say shortage, and valuations say peak. Plan for both. IDC’s smartphone data points the same way: memory costs are up about 350% from a year earlier, and IDC expects prices to keep rising until at least 2028.

Inside Semicon is back to monthly. The chip market moved too fast for a quarterly recap. So you’ll now hear from us in the last week of every month, with what changed that month, what it means for your plans and the IDC research behind it, so you spot supply and pricing shifts earlier.

IDC’s view: is your chip supply a risk or a plan?

TSMC’s quarter shows demand isn’t the constraint. Supply is. TSMC is exploring rare-earth-free motors for its equipment, and China’s pause on the rare-earth rules it announced in October 2025 was set to run only until November 10, 2026. Washington says the truce runs to January 10, 2027, but Beijing had not published matching legal text as of mid-October. The April 2025 licensing regime for seven medium and heavy rare earths was never paused. A pause isn’t a reversal.

The question behind these headlines: after years of industrial policy, has diversification built real resilience, or just moved the single point of failure somewhere else? IDC’s research on the critical drivers shaping 2027 planning gives you a framework for it. In the complimentary excerpt, IDC’s Alan Webber rates semiconductor and critical minerals supply, with seven other drivers, for volatility, maps each to 2031, and shows what to monitor and manage.

If chip supply sits in procurement and not in your risk register, you’re planning with half the picture.

Download the excerpt →

Country highlights

🇹🇼 Taiwan. TSMC posted a 66.4% gross margin, with 2nm at 8% of wafer revenue, and guided Q4 revenue to $52.3–54.3 billion.

🇰🇷 South Korea. SK hynix expects demand to exceed supply through 2030 and says long-term agreements already cover more than half of its 2027–28 capacity.

🇺🇸 United States. Micron closed fiscal 2026 with $133.19 billion in revenue, versus $37.38 billion the year before. GlobalFoundries will operate two new fabs in Malta, New York, under a US–Japan initiative of up to $21 billion, with the first expected online in 2029.

🇨🇳 China. IDC’s China data shows smartphone shipments down 15.4% in Q3, while Huawei grew 17.3%.

🇯🇵 Japan. Japan approved TSMC’s second Kumamoto fab for 3nm at 6,000 wafers per month, down from 48,000 planned, with operations scheduled for December 2028 and final figures dependent on subsidies.

🇮🇳 India. Japanese chip-linked companies are stepping up their push, and Modi has pledged to lift India Semiconductor Mission support to about $13.5 billion (Qatar Tribune).

🇲🇾 Malaysia. NXP is getting a $250 million EIB loan to expand assembly, packaging and test near Kuala Lumpur.

🇹🇭 Thailand. Infineon opened a backend site near Bangkok on October 1, which Thailand’s investment board values at $1.4 billion (Reuters).

🇸🇬 Singapore. Nvidia expects expanded testing in Singapore to start high-volume production in February 2027.

🇪🇺 Europe. ASML reported Q3 net sales of €11.7 billion and expects full-year 2026 sales of €44 billion to €45 billion.

Nvidia is reserving capacity across its supply chain, and setting the template. Its agreements with six suppliers cover substrates, advanced packaging, testing and optical engines, including a $1.1 billion capacity reservation advance to KYEC, and Nvidia plans 2.5x its substrate capacity over three years. So-what: capacity reservation is now a competitive moat, and IDC’s memory analyst notes the gap between buyers who have locked supply and those who haven’t is widening. IDC’s Galen Zeng maps which components are tightest through 4Q26, where foundry capacity is heading by 2030, and how China-based OSAT vendors are moving up. Download the excerpt →

The pricing wave keeps building, and it’s hitting devices. IDC’s Q3 data shows smartphone shipments down 22%, the steepest drop of any quarter to date, after a 7.4% fall in Q2, with Samsung and Apple falling far less than Chinese brands exposed to low-end phones. IDC’s August forecast calls for a record 16.7% fall in 2026 shipments, and Reuters reported in August that Samsung has raised some advanced foundry prices by up to 15% for new orders.

CXMT’s announcement moved markets more than physics, so far. CXMT announced plans to commercialize server DRAM on a 4F² cell design, while Micron said it has found “no viable scaling path” for 4F² and will extend its 6F² design.

Equipment supply chains are the new chokepoint. TSMC is asking equipment suppliers about motors without Chinese rare-earth magnets. So-what: geopolitics is now a fab-operations variable, not just a trade-policy headline. Watch for a Chinese notice before November 10.

Labor wants its share of the supercycle. After a 24-hour warning strike at Micron’s Taoyuan plant, which Nikkei described as Taiwan’s first-ever chip workers’ strike, talks are still open: a second round on October 27 ended without agreement, and a third is tentatively set for November 6. Micron says it will introduce quarterly profit sharing worldwide from fiscal 2027, while SK hynix sets aside 10% of annual operating profit for bonuses and Samsung 10.5% of its chip division’s (Digitimes).

An Indian firm just bought a Philippine semiconductor unit. Sancode acquired Cirtek Electronics for $20.2 million (Philippine Star).