Zhenya Sun is a research manager for the IDC team focused on exploring the application of technology and industrial development of AI and AI agents. He is also responsible for providing clients with consulting services on technologies, products, and markets related to large language models (LLMs) and AI agents, as well as delivering speeches at industry conferences and internal seminars.
Before joining IDC, Zhenya served as a project management officer (PMO), responsible for internal and external strategic consulting, AI application research and advisory services, AI project framework standardization, management system construction, and technical training on AI applications. Prior to that, he also led initiatives in product development process optimization and user market analysis.
Zhenya holds a Master's Degree in Engineering Management with a specialization in Information Systems Engineering from the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
This is the final post in Meet IDC Quanta, a short series showing what the product actually does, starting with the portal, then your inbox, and now when you’re already working in Claude.
Imagine you’re the account executive on a procurement software deal, and leadership on the buyer’s side just reached out: they want twenty minutes before the broader vendor review starts. Real conversation. No marketing slide deck, no long product tour. They’ll expect you to know their IT spending trajectory, where the competitive field is moving, and why now is the moment to act.
A fast reply won’t cut it here. You need an actual plan, reports pulled, trackers cross-referenced, findings stitched together. You could do that by hand, or you could open the AI tool sitting in front of you and ask it to build the whole thing.
One tool, every surface you’re already in
Most people assume IDC Quanta is a portal you visit. It’s actually a fabric: the same IDC intelligence, methodology, and research base, running everywhere you work. That’s Claude Chat, Cowork, and Code. It’s Claude for Chrome and the Microsoft Office add-ins, too. The deepest workflow integration lives in Cowork, which is where both scenarios below happen. One connection, live through Claude’s MCP integration (the open standard that lets Claude connect directly to outside data sources), with an IDC skill built in to handle the jobs sellers and buyers actually run.
You don’t switch tools to get IDC data into your work. You just ask.
Ask for the plan
Open Cowork and type it straight to Claude:
Build an account plan for a call with <your target account’s> procurement team, grounded in IDC’s data on their IT spending trajectory, the competitive landscape for procurement software, and any buying signals worth flagging.
Claude comes back with a couple of quick multiple-choice questions, like which vertical cut or which time horizon. Pick your answers, and it gets to work. A few minutes later, a fully structured account plan is sitting in a Word document. Spending trends are mapped out. Competitive positioning gets a clear read. Buying signals surface where they matter. The kind of document that used to take an analyst half a day now takes the length of your coffee.
Watch it show its work
Here’s the part that actually matters. Open the document and you’ll notice something most AI tools never bother to do: it tells you which parts came from where. IDC-sourced data sits clearly apart from what Claude reasoned on top of it. Nothing blends together into an unlabeled wall of confident-sounding text.
That distinction is the whole point. When your VP asks where a number came from, you’re not guessing. You can point to the line and say exactly what it is: IDC research, or Claude’s synthesis. The document already told you.
Now flip seats. You’re the buyer, evaluating procurement software vendors, and you need an independent shortlist, not a vendor’s pitch deck dressed up as analysis.
Same tool, same Cowork window. Ask Claude:
Give me a shortlist of the top three options based on IDC’s worldwide procurement applications research, and generate an Excel evaluation scorecard I can share with my team.
Claude builds the scorecard from the same shortlist of the three vendors actually leading the field, sourced from IDC’s Worldwide Procurement Applications Market Shares, 2025 (IDC #US53723426, June 2026). The IDC-grounded data and Claude’s analysis are labeled separately again. Your team sees exactly what’s evidence and what’s reasoning, no matter which side of the deal they’re sitting on.
Everything You Need, in the Tab You’re Already In
Our first blog showed you a portal built for hard questions with real citations. Our second blog put that same intelligence in your inbox. This closes the series on the biggest move yet: IDC Quanta living inside the tools you use, Claude included, where the work happens. A seller and a buyer can each walk into the same negotiation better prepared, neither one leaving the screen in front of them.
If you’re already using Claude, the IDC Quanta connector is one prompt away. If you’re not yet a customer, book a demo and bring the account you’re working right now.
Ryan Smith - Content Marketing Director - IDC
Ryan Smith is the Director of Content Marketing at IDC, where he leads brand-level content and social media strategy, aligning research insights with compelling storytelling to engage technology decision-makers. With a background in both IT and marketing, Ryan brings a unique blend of technical understanding and creative strategy to his work. He’s also a seasoned storyteller, speaker, and podcast host who believes the right message, told the right way, can drive both trust and transformation.
Governance is no longer an afterthought for agentic AI. According to IDC’s Future Enterprise Resiliency and Spending Survey, Wave 10, enterprises now allocate an average of 16.7% of their total planned AI spending to AI and Agent security and governance, a share on par with investment in other core layers of the AI tech stack. The takeaway for CIOs and vendors: governance has moved from a compliance checkbox to a strategic budget priority.
That institutional shift was visible at WAIC 2026 in Shanghai. On July 16, representatives from 29 countries signed the Agreement on Establishing the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization and became its founding members. The following day, the conference issued a chair’s statement and two governance action plans, while also proposing a global initiative on trusted Agent connectivity and interoperability. A year after China proposed the creation of WAICO at WAIC 2025, the signing of the agreement represents institutional follow-through worth watching. Its practical impact will depend on how these commitments are translated into common standards, coordination mechanisms and implementation programs.
Why Governance Is the Gatekeeper, Not the Brake
IDC’s October 2025 FutureScape: Worldwide Agentic Artificial Intelligence 2026 Predictions forecasts that by 2030, up to 20% of G1000 organizations will have faced lawsuits, substantial fines, and CIO dismissals due to high-profile disruptions stemming from inadequate controls and governance of AI agents. Far from restricting what Agents can do, governance is what makes deeper integration possible in the first place. Without clear identity and authorization rules, companies won’t grant Agents access to core systems. Without full observability and immutable logs, teams can’t reconstruct what happened after an incident. Without built-in suspension, rollback and human-override controls, businesses can’t contain the damage when an Agent misbehaves. Trust scales with control and not the other way around.
Three Layers of Trust
Enterprise confidence in Agents builds across three interconnected layers:
1. Internal controls — Agent identity, permissions and audit trails
3. Cross-border alignment — regulatory frameworks and capacity-building
As Agents increasingly need to work across organizational and platform boundaries, the second layer matters as much as the first. Shared identity credentials, common connectivity standards, and audit-ready activity trails keep accountability clear even across company lines. Without them, every cross-platform integration means redundant security validation and custom risk assessment — a tax on the whole Agent economy.
Translating Global Governance Rules into Enterprise Agent Design
The three trust layers above aren’t abstract, they dictate real architecture choices. Identity and permissions become credential and account governance. Audit-ready activity trails become tool-invocation logs and accountability records. Risk tiers become access scopes and human-review checkpoints for high-stakes actions — the same logic enterprises already apply to a routine quotation-approval workflow, now extended to Agents.
What This Means for Enterprises and Vendors
This reshapes how enterprises should design and evaluate Agent systems in practice:
Assign every Agent a unique identity — with defined authorizing stakeholders and bounded permissions, calibrated to risk. Routine tasks can run autonomously; anything touching sensitive data, capital transactions or production systems needs human-override capability.
Build fully observable, rollback-enabled pipelines — with complete audit trails covering every input, tool call and state change.
Push vendors for verifiable evaluation results — beyond task completion rates, including how well an Agent respects privilege boundaries, recovers from failure and escalates to humans.
Architect for cross-organization collaboration — Agents should present verifiable credentials, and receiving platforms should enforce granular, risk-based access policies.
Zhenya Sun is a research manager for the IDC team focused on exploring the application of technology and industrial development of AI and AI agents. He is also responsible for providing clients with consulting services on technologies, products, and markets related to large language models (LLMs) and AI agents, as well as delivering speeches at industry conferences and internal seminars.
Before joining IDC, Zhenya served as a project management officer (PMO), responsible for internal and external strategic consulting, AI application research and advisory services, AI project framework standardization, management system construction, and technical training on AI applications. Prior to that, he also led initiatives in product development process optimization and user market analysis.
Zhenya holds a Master's Degree in Engineering Management with a specialization in Information Systems Engineering from the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Moonshot AI’s release of Kimi K3 has intensified the debate over open models and frontier AI regulation, prompting renewed scrutiny of reported requests by OpenAI and Anthropic for the U.S. government to restrict open model releases associated with unauthorized distillation. The possibility that the U.S. government might restrict or ban such models catalyzed a forceful industry response. A coalition that included NVIDIA, Microsoft, Meta, IBM, Dell Technologies, Palantir, Hugging Face, Mistral, Mozilla, and other technology companies signed a letter urging policymakers to avoid premature restrictions on open-weight models and to distinguish legitimate distillation from misappropriation. The decision about whether to ban open models such as Kimi K3 will determine whether advanced AI development remains concentrated within a small number of laboratories or becomes accessible to a broader ecosystem of builders.
The larger opportunity is to create a future in which AI capability becomes bountiful, cheap, multivalent, and heterogeneous. That future depends on broadening participation beyond a small number of frontier laboratories and giving more organizations the means to develop intelligence on their own terms. Open weights provide the foundation, but open post-training infrastructure provides the path from access to invention. Restrictions on open releases would preserve scarcity just as the technical foundations for a broader and more generative ecosystem are beginning to emerge.
Restrictions on open models would protect incumbents from competition
The requests from OpenAI and Anthropic frame distillation as a problem requiring federal intervention to limit the distribution of models developed by other organizations. Distillation is the practice of using the outputs of a stronger model to train or improve a weaker one. An actor who queries a frontier model extensively across many sessions can use those interactions to produce a second model that approximates some of the original system’s capabilities. That second model then operates outside the original provider’s visibility, access controls, and safety infrastructure. OpenAI and Anthropic contend that unauthorized distillation of their systems constitutes intellectual-property theft and that open models built through that process should be restricted.
Closed-model providers, however, already control access to the systems from which the alleged distillation occurs. They determine who can use their models, how much access users receive, which interfaces are available, what contractual terms apply, and what patterns of automated activity trigger enforcement. Providers that consider distillation a material threat can strengthen authentication, impose rate limits, identify unusual query patterns, suspend accounts, restrict automated extraction, and redesign interfaces that expose unusually valuable training signals. They can also enforce contractual rights against users who violate clearly defined terms of service. The question of why these companies seek regulatory protection for a problem they are positioned to address through their own infrastructure deserves scrutiny.
OpenAI and Anthropic are seeking regulatory intervention as the general-purpose model layer begins to commoditize. Capability gaps between frontier and open models appear to be narrowing across a growing range of workloads, and substituting one system for another is becoming easier for enterprises. Open models give enterprises something to host and adapt on their own terms, and eventually to specialize for tasks a closed provider never built for. A closed provider holds greater pricing authority when few other systems can deliver comparable results. That authority declines when enterprises can choose among several proprietary services or adopt an open model that they can modify and operate on their own infrastructure. Even when an organization never deploys one, an open model exerts competitive pressure: its existence alone gives customers an alternative to permanent dependence on a single provider.
An open model should not be presumed to result from unauthorized distillation simply because it is open. A capable open model may reflect public research, independent experimentation, synthetic data, open datasets, improved training efficiency, or the cumulative work of a broader technical community. Similar model behavior does not by itself prove improper extraction. A policy regime that treats capability similarity as evidence of theft would allow incumbent providers to claim a proprietary interest in broad forms of model behavior and general technical progress. The federal government should not convert the private access-control concerns of closed providers into restrictions on open competition.
Open models preserve competition and the ability to build
Open models give organizations direct access to inspect and adapt AI systems, then run them wherever they choose. When an organization holds model weights, it can evaluate model behavior directly rather than rely on access mediated by a small number of private laboratories. That direct access supports customization, local deployment, reproducibility, independent safety validation, and organizational control over data and governance. Participation in AI development expands when more organizations can build and test systems, then improve them according to their own requirements rather than within boundaries defined by a provider.
No managed service can replicate the forms of control open models provide. Governments and regulated enterprises gain the ability to retain control over deployment conditions, data boundaries, and compliance requirements within the infrastructure they operate. Researchers gain the ability to study model behavior, test safety properties, and publish findings without requiring permission from the system’s developer. Independent developers gain room to pursue technical directions that hold substantial value within a specific domain or community, even when those directions hold little commercial interest for a frontier laboratory. These capabilities depend on holding the weights rather than on accessing a provider’s interface.
A frontier API gives an organization access to capability under conditions defined by the provider: the available model, permitted forms of use, pricing, rate limits, retention policies, safety controls, and the timing of future changes. Open weights transfer a different kind of authority. They allow an organization to inspect the model, operate it within the infrastructure it controls, alter its training process, construct its own evaluations, and pursue development directions the original provider did not anticipate. The distinction is between consuming capability and possessing the means to develop it further. Open models convert consumers of intelligence into builders of it.
Open weights alone are not enough: Post-training must be open too
Post-training is where frontier laboratories establish much of their practical advantage. Without open post-training infrastructure, open weights remain static artifacts. An organization that downloads an open model but lacks the tools, environments, evaluations, and reproducible practices required to post-train it can use the model as released, but cannot reshape what the model can do. In practice, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google appear to maintain their position less through pretraining scale or model weights than through what comes after: reinforcement learning at scale, tool-use conditioning, failure recovery across multistep workflows, reward modeling, and the accumulated judgment required to turn a base model into a system that executes reliably in production. What separates the frontier laboratories is the full development apparatus surrounding those published methods: the quality of training data, the design of task environments, the precision of evaluations, the construction of reward signals, and the decisions of teams that have run thousands of experiments and learned from each failure.
An open model ecosystem should therefore include more than downloadable checkpoints. It should include the tools, environments, evaluations, and reproducible practices required to conduct meaningful post-training. Without these components, the gap between holding a model and developing specialized capability from it remains prohibitively wide for most organizations. This infrastructure is beginning to take shape.
NVIDIA’s open-source NeMo RL provides scalable reinforcement-learning and post-training infrastructure, while NeMo Gym provides environments that combine datasets, agent harnesses, verifiers, and state for training and evaluation. Hugging Face’s TRL supports supervised fine-tuning, reinforcement learning, preference optimization, and reward modeling. OpenEnv provides standardized execution environments for agentic tasks. Open-R1 contributes shared training scripts, datasets, evaluations, synthetic-data pipelines, and development recipes that other teams can reproduce and adapt. Taken together, these projects show that open post-training is no longer merely an aspiration. Many of its constituent layers now exist, although they have yet to cohere into a broadly adopted and reproducible development stack.
The priority now is to expand the availability of complete post-training projects that connect models, datasets, environments, reward functions, evaluations, and experimental records in reproducible form. Such projects allow other teams to study the development process, replicate its results, and adapt its methods to another model or domain. Open-source software became foundational infrastructure through precisely this kind of cumulative contribution. Open post-training will not make advanced model development effortless. Organizations will still require substantial compute, high-quality data, expert evaluators, domain-specific environments, and the technical judgment to diagnose failed training runs. Its significance is that it can break the closed loop that has concentrated the knowledge required to build advanced AI within a small number of laboratories.
An open model ecosystem allows multiple intelligences to flourish
Open models and open post-training expose a larger truth that the current market structure often obscures: intelligence does not have a single frontier. Frontier models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google represent a specific and commercially valuable conception of intelligence that emphasizes coding, mathematical and scientific reasoning, wide knowledge coverage, and flexible performance across many domains. That conception occupies an important place within a broader field of intelligence. The capabilities prioritized by a small number of frontier laboratories should not become the universal standard against which all intelligent performance is measured.
Multiple intelligences are distinct configurations of knowledge, perception, judgment, and practical competence that succeed against different standards of excellence. Scientific intelligence reveals patterns in protein structures or identifies promising paths through a complex field of research. Engineering intelligence reconciles physical constraints, safety requirements, efficiency, and manufacturability. Other forms of intelligence place greater weight on aesthetic judgment, care, cultural fluency, pedagogy, taste, or practical wisdom. Design intelligence creates a home that reflects the memories, needs, and daily rhythms of the people who live there. Cultural intelligence organizes a bookstore display that creates unexpected associations and invites discovery. Developmental intelligence helps a family select media appropriate for a particular child. Practical or relational intelligence shapes a family vacation that balances cost, energy, accessibility, competing interests, and the experiences different people will remember.
Each of these intelligences involves a different combination of factual knowledge, perception, empathy, contextual awareness, technical competence, and judgment. Some forms of intelligence privilege mathematical correctness, scientific validity, or engineering precision. Others privilege beauty, coherence, care, fit, trust, delight, or an understanding of what will work for particular people under particular conditions. A system can excel against one set of standards and remain unremarkable against another, even when it performs strongly on broad benchmarks.
Respect for multiple intelligences remains compatible with rigorous standards of truth, evidence, competence, consistency, and excellence. Different perspectives do not erase the distinction between truth and falsehood. Every form of intelligence must prove itself against standards appropriate to its claims and purposes. Valid intelligence can take different forms, serve different ends, and resist reduction to a single hierarchy defined by general-purpose model performance.
A multivalent AI market would therefore contain many scientific, technical, cultural, commercial, and practical frontiers. General-purpose providers would continue to compete on broad reasoning, reliability, and managed-service quality. Specialized developers, institutions, and communities could build capabilities grounded in domain expertise, aesthetic judgment, cultural knowledge, practical experience, and different conceptions of successful performance. An open model ecosystem gives these forms of intelligence room to emerge, get tested, and prove their value — flourishing or not, on their own terms.
Choosing between scarcity and abundance
As the model layer commoditizes and capability gaps narrow, frontier providers will increasingly differentiate on the operational qualities that enterprises require: predictability, latency, uptime, regional availability, security, and compliance — capped by the kind of managed governance only a well-resourced provider can sustain. These characteristics justify enterprise procurement at scale, and they depend on the capital depth, compute access, and infrastructure investments that frontier laboratories are uniquely positioned to sustain. Open models and multivalent forms of intelligence broaden the market by distributing the ability to develop differentiated capability across a wider set of organizations, while frontier providers compete to deliver reliable, managed, general-purpose systems at enterprise scale. The result is an AI economy with more builders, more forms of intelligence, and more competitive pressure at every level.
The debate over open models is larger than a dispute about distillation or a disagreement about access policy. It concerns whether the ability to develop advanced AI stays scarce and concentrated within a small number of providers, or grows more abundant, cheaper, and responsive to the full range of domains and institutions that need it. Restrictions on open releases would preserve scarcity at the moment when the conditions for abundance are beginning to emerge. Open weights preserve the foundation. Open post-training provides the development path. The policy choices being made now will determine which future prevails.
Arnal Dayaratna - Research Vice President, Software Development
Dr. Arnal Dayaratna is Research Vice President, Software Development at IDC. Arnal focuses on software developer demographics, trends in programming languages and other application development tools, and the intersection of these development environments and the many emerging technologies that are enabling…
At the IDC Quanta launch webinar, Joe Bradley, CTO at IDC, made the case for why trusting an AI-powered answer shouldn’t require faith; it should require an architecture you can actually inspect. You’ve heard “AI-powered” enough times this year that a healthy dose of skepticism is the right response. Fair. So instead of asking you to trust that IDC Quanta gets its answers right, here’s what Bradley says is actually happening under the hood when it does.
Bradley breaks it down into two layers. The first is an MCP server: essentially a pipe that gives Claude direct access to IDC’s data, the trackers, the forecasts, the market figures. It also carries instructions for how that data is structured and how to use it. The second is IDC’s own Claude plugin, which goes further, Bradley explains. It shapes how the AI reasons about that data, tells it what’s relevant for what purpose, and requires it to surface a source before handing over any answer. Put together, when someone asks a question, Claude isn’t searching a phrase in a database, Bradley says. It’s reasoning with IDC’s own methodology built into the process.
That’s the theory. Here’s what it looks like in practice.
The Moment It Earned Trust
In the product demo, Bradley walked through a fictional scenario: Marcus Chen, a Senior FP&A analyst at Vantix Security, is building a market forecast ahead of a CFO review. He is projecting 16% growth in a segment his company competes in. He asked IDC Quanta to check that number against an external benchmark, right inside Excel.
In under a minute, Quanta surfaced IDC’s actual forecast for that market: 12.1% growth through 2029, with the category decelerating to single digits in the later years. His model hadn’t caught up to where the market was actually headed. That’s the payoff of the architecture above. The answer arrived with its source attached.
Why Even Build an App
Technical buyers reasonably ask why IDC needs its own app when Claude and ChatGPT already exist. IDC isn’t positioning itself as a competitor to the assistants people already use daily. It’s building something with a narrower job.
The case for IDC Quanta comes down to control over how IDC’s own data gets handled and delivered. It exists because of what only a dedicated app can guarantee: a single place that collects everything relevant across an IDC relationship, a direct line to a live analyst when the automated answer isn’t enough, and data handling built on tenant isolation, enforced access controls, and audit logs that capture every user action. Which raises the next question technical buyers ask first.
Provenance You Can Check Yourself
Bradley’s last test for anyone skeptical of AI-generated answers is provenance. Can you verify where it actually came from? In a second demo, he showed IDC Quanta processing a strategy document sent over email, then breaking its answer down into cited data cuts, each one tied explicitly to the filters and definitions behind it.
Nothing here is asserted without a source attached, and nothing requires trusting the AI’s summary over the underlying data itself. That’s the actual answer to “how do you know it’s not confidently wrong”: you don’t have to take Quanta’s word for it. You can check.
See It Yourself
The architecture, the demo, and the sourcing are easier to evaluate firsthand than to take on faith. Request a demo, or talk to your IDC account team if you already have one.
Ryan Smith - Content Marketing Director - IDC
Ryan Smith is the Director of Content Marketing at IDC, where he leads brand-level content and social media strategy, aligning research insights with compelling storytelling to engage technology decision-makers. With a background in both IT and marketing, Ryan brings a unique blend of technical understanding and creative strategy to his work. He’s also a seasoned storyteller, speaker, and podcast host who believes the right message, told the right way, can drive both trust and transformation.
Every industry conversation about AI right now seems to circle the same warning: it will do most of the routine work, services revenue will compress, and headcount-based business models must change to stay competitive. That warning isn’t wrong. It’s just half the story. It only describes what AI may take away from the market as businesses transform. Almost nobody is talking about what AI is creating at the same time: a large, durable, currently unclaimed demand for the specific skill of checking whether AI did the job correctly.
There’s a 40-year-old piece of research that predicts exactly what’s happening now, from a field that has nothing to do with software. In 1983, cognitive psychologist Lisanne Bainbridge published a short paper called “Ironies of Automation,” based on years of studying industrial process control rooms. Her finding was this: the more comprehensively you automate a system, the more demanding, not less, the remaining human role becomes. Why? Because humans are left holding exactly the tasks nobody could figure out how to automate, plus a brand-new job nobody trained them for: supervising a system whose failure modes they no longer see often enough to recognize. Skills that go unpracticed deteriorate. An experienced operator who spends their days watching automation work, instead of doing the work themselves, quietly becomes an inexperienced operator without ever noticing the transition. The automation is usually right, until the day it isn’t.
Aviation gave this idea real stakes. In 1987, a Northwest Airlines flight crashed on takeoff from Detroit, killing 154 of the 155 people on board. The crew had grown accustomed to an automated system that checked whether the flaps and slats were correctly configured for takeoff. That day, the automated check had been silenced by a tripped circuit breaker. The crew, used to the machine catching that error, didn’t manually verify it themselves. The plane took off unconfigured and didn’t make it. Nothing exotic went wrong that day: just a very ordinary, very human failure to keep practicing a check that automation had quietly made feel unnecessary.
That’s the pattern. And it’s showing up again, right now, in every field that has adopted AI assistants at scale, and people are already living through it. Junior lawyers are offloading legal research and first drafts to AI, the exact repetitions that used to build legal judgment, and firms are openly worried their new hires aren’t developing the ability to evaluate AI output at all. Several 2026 industry surveys on software engineering point to a similar problem from a different angle: junior developers who lack grounding in architecture and security can’t reliably judge whether AI-written code is good, and default to trusting the AI over their own instincts, precisely because they never built the instincts to trust instead. It’s been put more bluntly at industry security events: junior engineers raised on AI-assisted coding increasingly lack basic grounding in networking and protocols, to the point where teams struggle to even explain a security risk internally, let alone catch one.
So, the question people are asking but very few are providing an answer: yes, the mundane, repetitive tasks are going to get automated, that part of the story is true and it’s not really in dispute. But who is going to have the skill to validate what AI produced? Who’s going to be able to look at an autonomous system’s output and know, from real hands-on grounding, whether it’s right? And when something goes wrong, when the AI needs to be stopped, corrected, or restarted mid-task, who still has the muscle memory to do that? Everyone is racing to build automation. Who’s building the capacity to check it?
The cybersecurity version of this problem
Cybersecurity is the sharpest version of this problem right now because the automation in cyber security disciplines isn’t coming, it’s already here, running unsupervised, in production.
Every major SOC platform is moving from “copilot” (AI answers questions, a human acts) to “agentic” (AI acts, a human is notified afterward). Autonomous triage agents are now closing low-risk alerts and triggering containment actions on their own, at high self-reported accuracy, measured, naturally, by the vendor who built the system, against that vendor’s own labeled data. There’s no independent party currently checking that number. And practitioners are visibly split on how much to trust it: it’s now common to hear security teams admit they override AI-generated recommendations rather than act on them, because the output sounds confident even when it’s occasionally wrong. Busy teams get complacent, and AI has been trained on academic papers, so there is inherent bias towards confidence.
The same pattern is playing out on the offensive side. Autonomous AI pentesting agents are now finding, and reporting, real vulnerabilities faster than any human team could. That’s a real achievement. But it has already broken the pipeline downstream of discovery: at least one major bug-bounty platform has paused a long-running program and cut payouts after AI-assisted research pushed submission volume far beyond what maintainers could triage, and multiple open-source projects have suspended their bounty programs entirely over a flood of plausible-sounding, low-quality AI-generated reports. The constraint in offensive security has visibly shifted from finding problems to verifying them, and almost nobody is selling the verification.
This is, very precisely, a validation gap, and cybersecurity doesn’t have a name for it yet. So, let’s give it two.
AVaaS: AI Validation-as-a-Service. It borrows the naming convention security buyers already understand from PTaaS (Pentest-as-a-Service) and MDR (Managed Detection and Response), applied to a category that doesn’t have a name yet. An independent party’s entire job is to check what your AI actually decided against what it claims to have decided. That means sampling autonomous SOC actions against ground truth the AI didn’t design. It means reviewing autonomous pentest findings the way a skeptical senior tester reviews a junior’s report: not just whether it hit the target, but whether the path to get there was sound. This is not an eval, and it is not an LLM-as-judge setup wearing a new name. AVaaS is a human, independent, and accountable check — the specific thing a regulator, a board, or a client needs signed off, and the specific thing an eval was never designed to provide.
AJQ: AI Judgment Quotient. The individual-level version of the same idea: a way of naming the specific, trainable skill of knowing when to trust an AI’s output and when to push back on it, separate from knowing how to prompt an AI well, which is the skill everyone’s currently obsessed with. Prompting gets you a better answer, faster, just like it you ask a human a question. AJQ is what tells you whether the answer is right. Nobody is hiring for it by name yet. That won’t last.
The compliance tailwind almost nobody’s pricing in
There’s a regulatory hook here too, and it’s worth being precise about it, because the generic version of this argument overstates it. Most everyday cybersecurity AI, a SOC copilot triaging phishing, a pentesting agent scanning a SaaS app, isn’t automatically caught by the EU AI Act’s high-risk rules. But one category inside the Act lands directly on cybersecurity: AI systems used as a safety component in the management and operation of critical digital infrastructure: the utilities, OT, and ICS environments where a security or anomaly-detection system’s failure could have physical consequences. Those are high-risk by default, and the Act requires genuine, working human oversight: a person who can monitor, understand, override, and halt the system in practice, with that capability demonstrated rather than assumed.
Regulators aren’t going to be satisfied by a policy that says a kill switch exists. They’re going to ask whether anyone has tried to pull it under pressure and confirmed it works. That’s a specific, testable claim, and one that’s easy to sell. The deadline for it just moved later, to December 2027. That later date buys a multi-year runway to become the obvious, credible, evidenced vendor for this before every advisory firm on earth starts pitching the same slide.
That’s the tangible space. A genuine market category, with no incumbent, built where three things come together, all independently, verifiably true right now: AI is already making unsupervised security decisions in production; the people who could historically catch its mistakes are the same people whose foundational skills are quietly eroding from disuse; and a regulator is about to start asking, in writing, whether anyone actually checked. So, let’s see who builds it first.
Shilpi Handa - Associate Research Director (META), IDC
Shilpi Handa is an associate research director at IDC, with responsibility for the Middle East, Turkey, and Africa cybersecurity practice. Her core research coverage revolves around cybersecurity, with a focus on network security, cloud security, application security, and security operations.…
Shari Lava - Group Vice-President, AI, Data, and Automation
Shari Lava is Group Vice-President, AI, Data, and Automation. Ms. Lava’s core research coverage includes the fast-evolving AI software market, as well as the Automation and Data foundations essential for deploying AI at enterprise scale. This includes deep analysis of…
Lily is the Research Manager for China Robotics and Embodied Intelligence, specializing in market research on embodied intelligent robots. She has long focused on the development trends of China’s embodied intelligence robotics industry, systematically studying the evolution of robot hardware,…
The Q1 2026 results confirm that AI infrastructure investment has moved well beyond initial proof-of-concept phases into a sustained, multi-year capital commitment cycle while the competitive battle has shifted from how much compute gets bought to which platform wins it. Enterprise technology buyers, cloud service providers, and national governments are making long term decisions about where to build, how much to spend, and which AI workloads to prioritize.
For vendors, this means a prolonged period of elevated demand across accelerated compute, high-performance storage, and supporting network infrastructure, but also a fast-moving contest for architecture leadership, as ARM rackscale platforms displace x86 in the accelerated server market. For enterprises, the data signals that AI capacity is becoming a structural cost of doing business at scale, that storage refresh deferred during the initial AI buildout can no longer be postponed, and that late movers risk falling behind on both performance and cost efficiency.
IDC now projects the global AI infrastructure market will surpass $1 trillion in 2029, reaching $1.08 trillion, before climbing to $1.21 trillion in 2030.
Market dynamics
Regional performance was mixed. The United States remained dominant at $67.9 billion (75.7% of global spend, +30.3% YoY), though growth continues to moderate. China (PRC) returned to growth at $7.8 billion (8.7% share, +9.3% YoY). The Middle East & Africa remained the fastest-growing region (+233% YoY to $1.1 billion), followed by APeJC (+62% to $5.8 billion) and Western Europe (up to $5.1 billion).
Accelerated compute remains the structural backbone, alongside a growing non-GPU AI-centric layer. Server spending represented 97.6% of total AI infrastructure value in Q1 2026, and within that, a growing share of AI-centric demand is landing on infrastructure that isn’t GPU-accelerated at all. AI orchestration tooling, data-pipeline workloads, and CPU-only inference clusters that hyperscalers are running as a cost-mitigation strategy alongside their GPU buildouts.
Deferred storage investment is catching up. After redirecting budget toward GPU and AI server spend for the past one to two years and treating storage refresh as postponable, enterprises can no longer put those purchases off. Pent-up storage refresh is now landing on top of genuine AI-driven demand, reinforcing the urgency behind external storage strategy even as AI-centric storage remains a small share (2.4%) of total AI infrastructure value.
Data callout: Q1 2026 key metrics
Total AI Infrastructure Spending (Q1 2026)
$89.7 billion
Year-over-Year Growth (Q1 2026 vs. Q1 2025)
+33.1%
Full-Year 2025 AI Infrastructure Spending
$318 billion
Full-Year 2024 AI Infrastructure Spending
$153 billion (YoY +107.6%)
Server Share of Q1 2026 AI Spending
$87.6 billion (97.6%)
Storage Share of Q1 2026 AI Spending
$2.2 billion (2.4%)
2029 Forecast — AI Infrastructure
$1.08 trillion
Accelerated Server Platform Mix (Q1 2026)
Non-x86 (ARM) $53.0B vs. x86 $34.6B
2030 Forecast — AI Infrastructure
$1.21 trillion
“The Q1 2026 results make clear that AI infrastructure investment has entered a new phase where it’s not just about how much compute gets bought anymore, it’s about which platform wins it. We watched x86 accelerated servers fall from $52 billion to $35 billion in just two quarters while ARM rack-scale platforms nearly doubled, and that’s not demand destruction, that’s an architecture shift that is yet to be definitive as new x86 platforms are on the horizon as well. At the same time, we’re seeing genuine AI-driven demand show up in CPU-only inference clusters, AI orchestration tooling, and a storage refresh with a more AI-related flavor. While global economy and geopolitical tensions seem to slow down other markets, the AI investment pace continues showing an extraordinary resilience to the environment.” — Juan Seminara, Research Director, Worldwide Infrastructure Trackers, IDC
Outlook
IDC projects AI infrastructure spending will reach $497 billion in 2026, representing approximately 56% year-over-year growth; an acceleration, not a moderation, from the roughly 53% pace estimated as recently as last quarter, and still one of the largest absolute-dollar expansions ever recorded in a single IT market segment. The market is now forecast to surpass $1 trillion in 2029, reaching $1.08 trillion, before climbing to $1.21 trillion in 2030, a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30% from 2025.
What could accelerate this trajectory:
Faster-than-expected scaling of inference workloads as enterprise AI application deployment broadens
Sovereign AI program expansion in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Europe, driving incremental greenfield investment
New model architectures and AI agent frameworks require deeper, more distributed compute infrastructure
Emergence of non-GPU AI-centric demand (AI orchestration tooling, data-pipeline workloads, and physical AI use cases such as robotics and autonomous vehicles) extending the addressable market beyond GPU-based training and inference
What could constrain growth:
Power generation and grid capacity constraints, which remain the primary operational bottleneck for new data center commissioning in major markets
Memory and storage component scarcity, which can lift server BOMs and slow procurement cycles, now compounded by enterprises simultaneously catching up on deferred storage refresh
Expanded export controls and data-sovereignty regulations, which could reshape where AI workloads are deployed and which vendors win enterprise deals
Geopolitical instability in the Middle East, where growth is concentrated in a small number of large, government-backed Gulf deals; escalation of regional tensions, including the ongoing conflict involving Iran, could delay procurement decisions, complicate data center siting and security planning, or shift government priorities away from AI infrastructure investment, introducing volatility to what is currently the fastest-growing region
Investors and technology buyers should monitor Q2 2026 capital expenditure guidance from leading hyperscalers and AI platform providers, as these forward signals remain the most reliable leading indicator of near-term infrastructure demand.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did AI infrastructure growth moderate from earlier 2025 peaks?
Earlier quarters benefited from a step-change in capital deployment as hyperscalers accelerated training infrastructure buildouts, then a second step-change as ARM rack-scale platforms began displacing x86 in Q4 2025. Q1 2026’s 33% year-over-year growth reflects a much higher base, not a slowdown in demand. Sequential spending was essentially flat with Q4 2025’s record quarter. The long-term expansion cycle remains firmly intact, and IDC’s full-year 2026 forecast was revised upward, not downward, this quarter.
Which regions are emerging as new AI infrastructure centers?
The Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, again posted the strongest year-over-year growth globally in Q1 2026, driven by government-backed sovereign AI initiatives and partnerships with leading hyperscalers, even as sequential spending pulled back from Q4 2025’s record deal flow. China returned to growth after a Q4 2025 decline. Western Europe and Asia/Pacific also grew sharply, supported by national AI strategies and localized cloud service provider expansion.
What risks should buyers and vendors watch in 2026?
Power availability is the single most important operational constraint heading into 2026. Data center commissioning timelines are increasingly driven by utility capacity rather than hardware lead times. In parallel, evolving trade policy, particularly around advanced GPU exports, will continue to reshape competitive dynamics across China, the Middle East, and other emerging markets. The rapid ARM/x86 platform shift also raises execution risk for x86-focused OEMs and ODMs that have not yet diversified their rack-scale roadmaps.
Have ARM servers overtaken x86 in the accelerated server market, and what’s the outlook going forward?
Yes, Non-x86 (ARM) accelerated server value climbed to $53.0 billion in Q1 2026, up from $47.5 billion in Q4 2025 and $29.8 billion in Q3 2025, while x86 accelerated value fell to $34.6 billion from $42.7 billion and $51.9 billion over the same span. The crossover, which began in Q4 2025, reflects large buyers consolidating around NVL72/GB200-class rack-scale platforms and redistributing volume away from custom x86 rack designs. Projections will depend on how offerings evolve. Which platform ultimately prevails remains to be seen, as supply challenges across the industry persist.
Juan Pablo Seminara is the Research Director for IDC's Worldwide Enterprise Infrastructure Trackers within the Data & Analytics organization. Mr. Seminara is responsible for leading a team of analysts in charge of the product concept, roadmap, implementation, execution, and client…
This is the second post in Meet IDC Quanta, a short series showing what the product actually does, starting with the portal, then your inbox, then wherever you’re already working in Claude.
It’s 4:47 PM. You’re prepping for tomorrow’s board meeting, and a question just landed that wasn’t on your list: how does your cloud infrastructure position compare to what’s shifted in the market over the last two quarters. You could open a portal, log in, run a search, filter by date, read three reports, and synthesize an answer. Or you could pull up your phone in the elevator.
Most executives don’t have a research workflow. They have an inbox. IDC Quanta was built on that premise: the fastest tool for a time-pressed leader is the one they never have to open, because it’s already open.
What it actually does
IDC Quanta in email lets you ask a question and get a sourced IDC answer back in about 60 seconds. It works the way you’d already expect email to work, which is exactly the point.
Compose an email to brief@quanta.idc.com, from your phone, your laptop, whatever’s in front of you.
Ask the question in plain language. No query syntax, no keyword tricks. “Which cloud infrastructure vendors gained share in EMEA in the past 12 months?” is a complete request.
Send it, and keep moving. A structured, sourced answer arrives in about 60 seconds, fast enough that you can send the question walking into a meeting and have the answer before you sit down.
The reply carries its own receipts. Every claim in the answer traces to a specific IDC source. If you want to go deeper, “View in IDC Quanta” drops you straight into the full portal conversation, context intact.
No login screen to remember, no new app for IT to vet. And no tab-switching mid-meeting. The intelligence comes to the inbox. The inbox doesn’t change to accommodate it.
Where this earns its keep
The mechanic is simple. What makes it valuable is what it replaces across a week of an executive’s actual work:
Before the call. A prospect meeting is in twenty minutes and you need a current read on their competitive positioning. Email the question on your way to the conference room. The answer’s there before you sit down, cited and ready to use.
Benchmarking your own thinking. Attach a competitive deck or account plan to your email along with your question. IDC Quanta reads it alongside its own research base and flags where your internal view and IDC’s tracked data disagree. You’re getting your own analysis checked against the numbers.
The follow-up nobody has time to chase. Someone asks a sharp question in a meeting and the honest answer is “let me get back to you.” Now that follow-up takes one email and about a minute. Who else on your team wishes they had that?
Board and investor prep, compressed. The night-before scramble for one more data point doesn’t need the whole deck reopened. One email, one sourced answer, dropped straight into the slide.
Why this isn’t just a fast AI reply
A lot of tools will answer an email question with confidence. Confidence isn’t the same as being right, and it isn’t the same as being defensible in a room full of people who will ask where the number came from. Every IDC Quanta answer draws on IDC’s research base: 1,000+ analysts across 100+ countries, tracking 15B+ data points and 800K+ companies annually. That’s the citation trail behind every answer. It’s what makes an answer dropped in your inbox worth repeating in the room.
Get it in your inbox
If you’re already an IDC Quanta customer, brief@quanta.idc.com is live. Send the question you didn’t have time to research properly and see how fast a sourced answer actually moves.
If you’re not yet a customer, request a demo, and we’ll show you what it looks like when your inbox starts acting like a research team.
Ryan Smith - Content Marketing Director - IDC
Ryan Smith is the Director of Content Marketing at IDC, where he leads brand-level content and social media strategy, aligning research insights with compelling storytelling to engage technology decision-makers. With a background in both IT and marketing, Ryan brings a unique blend of technical understanding and creative strategy to his work. He’s also a seasoned storyteller, speaker, and podcast host who believes the right message, told the right way, can drive both trust and transformation.
Industrial data: from visibility to business value
For more than a decade, industrial digital transformation centered on visibility. Manufacturers invested heavily in connected assets, historians, dashboards, sensors, and IIoT platforms to gain greater operational insight.
Today, visibility is no longer the primary bottleneck.
Walk any major industrial event, from Hannover Messe to Smart Manufacturing Week, and you will see it: nobody’s pitching “we’ll help you see your data” anymore. Most industrial organizations I talk to aren’t short on data. If anything, they are drowning in it. The real challenge has moved from collecting data to actually getting value out of it.
The challenge has shifted from collecting data to converting data into decisions, and decisions into measurable business outcomes. That shift is where AI and industrial operations begin to intersect in genuinely transformative ways.
The market’s biggest bet: industrial context layers
As AI matures, industrial systems are shifting from reporting what happened, to recommending what should happen next, to (increasingly) executing approved actions on their own. We are witnessing a gradual progression from automation toward autonomy.
My view, and one I continue to test in conversations across the market, is that much of the industry’s AI discussion remains overly focused on models themselves. Foundation models are becoming commoditized fast. What’s actually scarce is industrial context, the thing that lets those models do something useful.
An AI model can detect an anomaly, generate a recommendation, optimize a schedule. Fine. But without understanding asset relationships, maintenance history, engineering constraints, production targets, safety requirements, business objectives, that recommendation isn’t worth much on the shop floor. I saw this firsthand during a recent visit to Schneider Electric’s Le Vaudreuil plant in Normandy: the AI itself wasn’t the impressive part; it was the decades of engineering knowledge, process understanding, and operational context underpinning the system. Context is what turns raw data into intelligence, and intelligence into action.
Why AI context requires ongoing maintenance, not just setup
Context also needs upkeep. Let me share an instance I recently came across: a manufacturer brought in a consulting team to build an AI model that controlled fan sequencing inside a set of curing ovens, fixing a temperature gradient that had been causing product defects for years. It worked, and the consultants moved on. About three months later, the problem came back, worse than before. The model had drifted, and nobody was monitoring it closely enough to catch it.
The actual cause turned out to be almost trivial: in the summer, operators would prop open a back door to cool the plant, and the draft created a cold spot the model was never designed to account for. The people on the floor had always known to compensate for this manually, but once the AI model took over, that tacit knowledge quietly stopped being used, and nobody thought to feed it back in.
It’s a reminder that context isn’t a one-time input, it has to be actively maintained, or a model will keep confidently executing on a picture of the world that’s gone stale. Treat AI models like any quality system: audit them on a regular cadence, rerun the same inputs, and catch drift before it becomes a failure.
How industrial vendors are building AI context layers
The more conversations I have across the industrial software market, the more it feels like vendors are arriving at a similar conclusion. Whether through acquisitions, digital twin initiatives, semantic models, knowledge graphs, or industrial data fabrics, vendors are racing to build operational knowledge layers that sit beneath AI capabilities.
Schneider’s acquisition of Cognite. Siemens pursuing its vision through Intelligence Center X, which surfaced repeatedly in conversations at Realize LIVE as part of Siemens’ effort to connect industrial data, engineering knowledge, and AI into a unified operational intelligence layer. Bosch’s Manufacturing Co-Intelligence push, which Norbert Jung was framing to me in Berlin as a “third layer of intelligence” sitting above the shop floor. Autodesk buying MaintainX. Velotic forming. Different roads, same destination: everyone’s racing to build the contextualized data foundation, the semantic layer, the knowledge model, the digital twin underneath the AI.
The emerging battle is no longer simply about delivering AI capabilities. It is about owning the context layer that makes those capabilities useful.
AI assistants vs. AI agents in industrial software
One data point which is relevant here: AI assistants are already everywhere in enterprise software, IDC estimates over 60% of enterprise apps now have some assistant or advisory capability baked in, while roughly 20% are pushing further into actual agent territory, systems that can independently perceive, evaluate, and act. That difference is not small. Assistants help people do the work. Agents start doing the work themselves.
And that has real implications for how enterprise software gets built. For decades, applications were designed around humans: log in, navigate a workflow, move data from one system to another. In an agentic world, that whole model starts to break down.
Why orchestration, not automation, is the real disruption
Instead of opening five dashboards, a user might just say: “optimize tomorrow’s production schedule while minimizing energy costs and avoiding maintenance conflicts.” An orchestration layer then pulls together specialized agents across scheduling, asset management, supply chain, and energy to actually get it done. It’s roughly the vision I kept hearing sketched out on the show floor at Smart Manufacturing Week and other industry events, just from different vendors, each convinced they’d own the orchestration layer.
So no, I don’t think the disruption here is automation. Industry has automated processes for decades already. The disruption is orchestration. Agents are becoming the connective tissue between applications, processes, and outcomes.
That doesn’t mean SaaS is going away, not even close. ERP, MES, EAM, APM, historians, supply chain systems, these stay critical because they are what agents read from and act through. But the value is migrating upward, away from the application itself and toward the orchestration and context layers sitting above it.
This is basically why I don’t buy the “SaaSpocalypse” narrative that’s been making the rounds. What’s actually happening looks less like the death of software and more like software evolving from a system of record into a system of intelligence.
For industrial software vendors, that raises an uncomfortable strategic question: if everyone can plug into the same foundation models, where’s the differentiation going to come from?
My take: Domain intelligence. Process models. Engineering expertise. Decades of operational history. Digital twins. Openness and interoperability. Contextualized industrial knowledge that’s been built up over years, not scraped off the internet.
Key questions for the future of industrial AI
The last decade was about digitizing operations. The next one is likely going to be about operationalizing intelligence. The data already exists. The models are becoming available to everyone. Context is emerging as the industry’s most defensible and strategically valuable asset.
Which leaves me with a few open questions I’d genuinely love to hear other views on:
Will the next generation of industrial platform leaders be the ones with the best AI, or the ones with the richest operational context?
Does the real control point end up living inside the application, or in the orchestration layer above it?
As agents become the primary “users” of software, how should vendors be rethinking product design and pricing?
Will industrial organizations trust a single vendor’s context layer, or will neutral data foundations end up winning out?
And perhaps the biggest one: as we move from automation to autonomy, who actually owns the decision?
Gunjan Bassi has more than 14 years' experience working in the logistics and transportation sector. Before joining IDC, she worked with Transport Intelligence (Ti), a transportation and logistics research firm based in Bath, England, where she was responsible for vertical…
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