About six in ten organizations say their AI strategy is transforming the business. IDC’s 2026 MaturityScape Benchmark AI Survey measured whether their capabilities match that claim, and for roughly five in six they do not yet.
How did IDC measure AI maturity?
The May 2026 survey covers 1,900 organizations across 20 markets and asks two kinds of questions. The first is a self-assessment of the organization’s approach to AI, which IDC used to sort respondents into two groups.
Survivors describe either no enterprise AI strategy, with projects run independently by teams, or a strategy limited to select functions or business areas. Their descriptions correspond to the first three maturity stages.
Thrivers describe an enterprise AI strategy that either implements AI in every part of the business to transform the operating model, or advances AI use cases to redefine products and services. Their descriptions correspond to the top two stages.
The second is a set of detailed capability questions across four dimensions: strategy, governance, people, and technology. IDC scores those answers to place each organization in one of five stages. Comparing the two shows how closely what leaders say matches what their organizations can do.
What are the five stages of AI maturity?
The stages run from Ad hoc to Optimized, and the top stage is what IDC calls the AI-fueled organization.
Ad hoc: Disconnected pilots, with no enterprise strategy or central AI leader.
Opportunistic: An informal oversight group shapes a strategy around a few high-return use cases.
Repeatable: A center of excellence with a dedicated AI leader builds an enterprise roadmap, and governance becomes formal.
Managed: AI reshapes the operating model, and new AI-powered products and revenue streams appear.
Optimized: Autonomous agents become more prevalent, and governance is enforced in real time.
Where do most organizations sit on the AI maturity model?
Half of organizations sit at Opportunistic, and 61.3% sit in the two least mature stages. Only 12.8% have reached the two most mature stages. Of those, 3.1% sit at Optimized and the other 9.7% at Managed.
The average hides a split. The worldwide mean score edged up from 2.39 in 2025 to 2.43, while the share at Optimized rose from 0.4% to 3.1%, nearly eightfold. IDC reads that as a leading cohort beginning to separate from the pack, with the broad middle advancing slowly.
What happens when self-description meets the scorecard?
Of the 1,149 organizations that described themselves as Thrivers, about 60% of the sample, only 15.1% scored at Managed or Optimized. By IDC’s assessment, that leaves roughly five in six still operating like Survivors: the other 84.9% landed at Ad hoc, Opportunistic, or Repeatable.
The label still carries some signal. Thrivers are about 1.5 times as likely as Survivors to reach the top two stages, which IDC credits to having a coordinated enterprise strategy. Both shares are modest, though, and confidence and capability track only loosely: 10.1% of Survivors score into the top two stages anyway.
Why does AI ambition outrun AI capability?
In IDC’s analysis, strategy is the easiest dimension to declare and the hardest to deliver at scale. The shortfall shows up in the dimensions that are harder to overstate. IDC points to governance that hasn’t been formalized into enforceable controls, data and platform foundations that cannot support production at scale, and a workforce that hasn’t been brought along through reskilling and change management. That is how an organization can carry the narrative of an AI-fueled enterprise while its execution still resembles the Opportunistic stage.
The dimension scores point the same way. Technology is the least mature dimension, with 66.5% of organizations in its two least mature stages. People maturity clusters at Opportunistic (51.2%). Governance is furthest along and is where Thrivers pull ahead most: 20.1% of Thrivers reach the top two stages on governance, versus 12.2% of Survivors. Even so, 57.2% of all organizations still sit in its two least mature stages.
The distance between the stage you describe and the stage you score is specific to your organization, and so are the moves that close it. IDC Quanta pairs your own documents and data with IDC’s research to help you define practical steps from where you are to Managed or Optimized.
Ryan Smith - Content Marketing Director - IDC
Ryan Smith is the Director of Content Marketing at IDC, where he leads brand-level content and social media strategy, aligning research insights with compelling storytelling to engage technology decision-makers. With a background in both IT and marketing, Ryan brings a unique blend of technical understanding and creative strategy to his work. He’s also a seasoned storyteller, speaker, and podcast host who believes the right message, told the right way, can drive both trust and transformation.
Any organization that lets an AI system touch real data or real decisions needs an enforcement layer that sits outside the model, where the model cannot reach it or argue with it. The same holds for a mid-sized manufacturer using generative AI to draft procurement contracts and a healthcare provider running an agentic scheduling assistant, and it applies to frontier, generative, and agentic AI alike.
The first gap is the provider. Frontier developers are advancing capability faster than independent safety evidence is arriving. More than a dozen of them publish voluntary safety frameworks, and thresholds and evaluation rigor vary so widely that framework adoption alone tells a buyer little. Generative AI embedded in SaaS products and productivity tools adds dependencies that nobody scores, often with little visibility into which model and provider sit underneath. Agentic AI takes autonomous actions across multi-step workflows, sometimes for days, on systems that touch real data. EU AI Act enforcement against providers of general-purpose AI models, including fines of up to 3% of global annual turnover, began on August 2, 2026, which makes a provider’s regulatory posture a financial risk signal for any buyer’s vendor evaluation.
The second gap is architectural. Most organizations rely on the model itself to decide what it should and should not do, through system prompts, safety fine-tuning, and content filters that live in the same weights and context window the model uses for every other output. Those controls can be argued with, role-played around, encoded past, or overridden by a sufficiently creative prompt, because responsiveness to prompts is what makes the model useful. Prompt injection, jailbreaks, and tool-calling exploits are now a standing category of incident response, and attackers succeed by working inside a boundary that organizations assumed sat outside the model.
Putting enforcement inside the AI does not work. Every model, frontier, generative, or agentic, can find its way around controls embedded in its own context. The fix is the same regardless of AI type: an enforcement layer sitting outside the model, which the model cannot see, reach, or negotiate with. This is not optional infrastructure. It is the minimum viable governance for any organization deploying AI.
Both gaps come from treating governance as something the model participates in. The model provides the reasoning. The agent uses that reasoning to do work. The harness supplies the context, tools, and orchestration around the agent, along with the control points that shape how that work happens. Security boundaries have to be independent of the model’s decision-making, whether they sit at the agent level, the harness level, or in an external enforcement layer. A system prompt or safety fine-tuning instruction that the model is asked to follow cannot serve as one.
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Frontier AI providers have made real progress on safety frameworks, but voluntary commitments with inconsistent thresholds are not a substitute for verifiable evidence. Enterprises need to treat frontier, generative, and agentic model providers as the critical, systemically important vendors they have become, not as black boxes
Why the model cannot govern itself
The intuitive response to AI risk is better instructions: stronger system prompts, more restrictive fine-tuning, better content filters. Those are courtesy controls: the model follows them through the same mechanism it uses to follow every other instruction. Deterministic controls at the agent or harness level work differently. They run independently of the model’s decision-making while staying close enough to the agent to understand its context and act as the work happens.
Prompt injection: An attacker embeds instructions in content the model processes (a document, a webpage, a tool response) and overrides the system prompt’s constraints. The model cannot distinguish the attack from a legitimate instruction.
Jailbreaks: Role-play scenarios, encoding, and multi-step conversational sequences exploit the model’s instruction-following to bypass safety fine-tuning.
Tool-calling exploits: Generative and agentic systems that call tools and APIs or execute code create an attack surface that grows with capability. A compromised tool response or an ambiguous permission boundary can set off autonomous action that cascades across systems before a human reviewer sees it. A generative AI with file-access permissions is exposed to this as directly as a full agentic workflow.
Multi-agent amplification: When models or agents call each other without a human in the loop, one successful injection propagates down the chain. Generative AI feeding outputs to downstream agentic workflows carries the same risk without any formal multi-agent orchestration, and the problem compounds at every system boundary the output crosses.
Recent incidents show the exposure. In July 2026, a security incident at a widely used model-evaluation platform demonstrated how fragile third-party access controls for AI testing remain. An autonomous coding agent operated unsupervised for approximately a week before its own developer identified and attributed the activity. A brief export-control suspension of a newly released frontier model in June 2026 showed how quickly regulatory and geopolitical action can disrupt access to a model that an organization has already built a process around.
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AI cannot be responsible for enforcing the controls that govern its own behavior. As enterprises move toward autonomous agents, enforcement must remain architecturally independent of the model and informed by a continuously changing risk context. When the risk of an agent, model, or third-party dependency changes, what AI is permitted to do should change with it.
Independent controls and where they belong
Independent controls can sit at several layers, and most organizations will use all of them. Each must operate deterministically and outside the model’s reasoning, so the model cannot talk its way around it. Agent-level controls can enforce identity delegation and tool-call boundaries while keeping the context of the work in progress. Harness-level controls can enforce policy, manage orchestration boundaries, and log interactions without relying on the model to surface anything. External layers such as proxies and gateways provide independent boundaries where traffic naturally passes through them. The coverage gap is real: a gateway can act only on the interactions it mediates, and agents working across tools, identities, APIs, endpoints, browsers, and Model Context Protocol (MCP) connections will always have surfaces that no single gateway sees, so the layers have to be used together.
Independent controls enforce policy at the interaction level, in real time. The broader governance program covers AI model inventory, life-cycle management, provider risk assessment, continuous assurance, and reporting to leadership or a board, and it needs its own funding. Its shape scales with the organization, as the final section describes.
IDC recommends evaluating independent control architecture against five capability areas. Table 1 describes each area and why it has to be independent of the model to work as a security boundary. The five apply whether the implementation sits at the agent level, the harness level, or an external layer, and most deployments will combine all three. Treat them as a minimum: data sensitivity, regulatory environment, and deployment risk profile will call for additional controls, some of which the hub-and-spoke section below describes.
TABLE 1: Five Independent Control Capabilities: Applicable Across Frontier, Generative, and Agentic AI (Extensible by Organization)
Layer
Function
Why It Must Be Independent of the Model
Identity and Access
Authenticates every caller (human, application, or agent) against the enterprise identity provider and delegates only the calling user’s actual entitlements downstream
A model holding a standing service identity with broad permissions can be jailbroken into using those permissions. Delegated identity bounds the blast radius of any exploit to whatever the calling user was already permitted to do.
Request Inspection
Screens every inbound prompt and tool-call parameter for policy violations, data-classification conflicts, and prompt-injection patterns before the model sees them
Prompt-injection defenses built into model weights or system prompts are arguable. A request inspector running outside the model cannot be negotiated with or role-played around.
Policy Enforcement
Evaluates and enforces business rules, regulatory constraints, and data-handling requirements as code, not as instructions that the model is asked to follow
Instructions inside the model’s context window compete with every other input for attention. Policy running as code in an external layer has no attention mechanism to exploit.
Response Mediation
Screens, redacts, or blocks the model’s outbound content and tool-call authorizations before they leave the enforcement layer, regardless of what the model produced
A model that generates a non-compliant response cannot self-censor reliably. External mediation acts on the output regardless of the model’s own judgment about its content.
Audit and Telemetry
Logs every mediated request and response immutably outside the model’s environment; hosts the kill switch at three grains: session, user/application, and full deployment
Audit logs that the model can reach can be suppressed, rewritten, or influenced. External, immutable logging is the only basis for forensic investigation, and the only kill switch the model cannot cooperate with or obstruct.
Source: IDC, 2026
The hub-and-spoke MCP gateway pattern
For the highest-risk integrations, where traffic passes through a defined chokepoint, IDC recommends evaluating an MCP gateway in a hub-and-spoke topology as a strong technical substrate for external enforcement. A single hub centralizes policy, identity, and audit for the estate. Spokes deployed close to tools and data enforce that policy locally, so governance logic is not duplicated at every integration point. The pattern works best as one layer in a defense-in-depth architecture that also includes agent-level and harness-level controls, because no gateway mediates every interaction an agent has across its tools, APIs, browsers, and direct system connections.
Defining policy, identity, and audit once at the hub and enforcing them at every spoke avoids the redundancy and configuration drift that build up when each AI integration manages its own access controls. In high-volume or latency-sensitive environments, a well-designed hub-and-spoke enforcement layer can reduce total governance overhead compared with point-to-point control architectures, because inspection and policy evaluation happen at the spoke nearest the data source instead of through a central bottleneck. Where AI is embedded in operational workflows that cannot tolerate added latency, that property is a deployment prerequisite.
Two further considerations belong in any hub-and-spoke MCP evaluation. First, secure communications between AI systems and the hub, and between the hub and each spoke, are first-class architecture requirements that the network layer does not supply on its own. Most high-sensitivity deployments will need encrypted transport and mutual authentication between AI agents and the MCP gateway, integrity verification of messages between spokes and connected data repositories, and cross-agent session integrity validation, all as extensions to the five-layer stack. Second, data repository connections need their own enforcement: the spoke closest to a database, document store, or data lake should enforce access policy and log retrieval operations with the same rigor the identity and request layers apply to AI queries. The pattern does not yet cover skills, hooks, plugins, or direct API calls, so scope it to the high-risk chokepoints you can name today.
Specifying the kill switch
The audit and telemetry layer also hosts the kill switch, and it has to be specified deliberately. It should offer three suspension grains: a single session, a specific user or application, and the full deployment. Because it sits outside the model, it triggers instantly and needs no acknowledgment or cooperation from the model. Split authority over the enforcement layer across two administrative roles, one controlling policy and configuration and a separate one with sole authority to activate the kill switch. Neither role should hold both. Pair suspension with a defined rollback capability wherever the underlying system supports it, because halting future actions addresses only half the containment problem.
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We shouldn’t rely on the model to enforce the controls that govern it, but that doesn’t mean every control needs to sit outside the agent. Deterministic controls at the agent and harness level can act with the context of the work, while external controls provide independent enforcement at the boundaries they mediate. Enterprises need both, informed by a continuous understanding of how the agent is built, what it can access and how it actually behaves.
Rating the providers behind your AI
An enforcement layer governs how models behave inside your organization. Governing the providers whose models you depend on is a separate and equally urgent job, and it falls on every organization using AI, including those without a formal third-party risk management (TPRM) program. A company buying a generative AI writing tool has an AI provider relationship, and so does a development team embedding a frontier model in a customer-facing product. In each case the provider sits inside operational processes as an unscored dependency, evaluated, if at all, against generic software-vendor criteria that miss safety-framework maturity and concentration risk.
Provider risk assessment for AI is a basic organizational responsibility that scales with the depth of the dependency. IDC recommends that any organization depending on an AI model provider, directly or through software it procures, assess that provider across five dimensions. Table 2 maps each dimension to its decision gate and explains why it belongs in TPRM.
TABLE 2: IDC Five-Dimension TPRM Scoring Framework for AI Model Providers (Frontier, Generative, and Agentic)
Dimension
What It Measures
Decision Gate
Why It Belongs in TPRM
Safety-Framework Maturity
Whether the provider publishes a Frontier AI Safety Framework, how specific capability thresholds are, and whether commitments extend to deployment pauses
Onboarding
Framework adoption is a start, not proof. Threshold specificity and pause commitments distinguish genuine from performative frameworks.
Evaluation Transparency
Whether the provider permits independent red-teaming, publishes methodology and results rather than summary assurances
Onboarding / Contract
Summary assurances are unverifiable. Published methodology and results are auditable. Buyers cannot tell the difference without this dimension.
Incident Disclosure History
How quickly and completely the provider has disclosed past security incidents, model-weight exposures, or capability-tier reclassifications
Contract / Exit
A provider’s disclosure behavior under pressure is more informative about future reliability than its posture under normal conditions.
Regulatory Posture
EU AI Act Code of Practice adherence, engagement with other applicable frameworks, responsiveness to regulatory information requests
Contract
EU AI Act fines on general-purpose AI model providers of up to 3% of global turnover make regulatory posture a live financial risk, not a compliance checkbox.
Concentration and Dependency Exposure
How many of the enterprise’s other critical vendors embed the same provider’s models; whether infrastructure or capacity is shared across them
Exit / BCP
A single provider’s outage or incident can cascade simultaneously across vendors the enterprise never directly contracted with.
Source: IDC, 2026
The score should drive three decisions: whether to accept a new AI provider dependency, what terms to require before the relationship proceeds, and when score deterioration justifies evaluating alternatives. Smaller organizations can make these calls informally, and larger ones may have defined governance gates. Score on trigger events as well as on an annual cycle, because AI providers change materially between assessments in ways conventional software vendors usually do not. Generative AI embedded in SaaS tools can swap its underlying model without telling the customer, so require contractual disclosure of model version changes in any AI tool agreement. Concentration risk deserves particular attention from organizations that do not think they have it: the same handful of underlying providers often powers frontier, generative, and agentic deployments across an entire software stack.
What every organization using AI must do
The enforcement layer and the provider scoring framework complement each other, and both apply even where no governance, risk, and compliance (GRC) team exists. The enforcement layer governs real-time model behavior; the scoring framework governs the provider relationship. These actions apply at any scale:
Demand architectural separation from every AI vendor. A gateway or filter running as a plug-in inside the model vendor’s own console is still reachable by the model through shared memory or a persistent prompt. A terms-of-service promise that the model will not look is not evidence of separation either, so whether you are deploying one generative AI tool or a fleet of agentic workflows, ask for an architecture diagram showing no network path from the model to the policy engine, the audit store, or the enforcement configuration.
Require identity parity across every AI system. Extend the conditional access, multifactor authentication (MFA), and risk-based policies already running for human identities to every AI model, agent, and tool, using on-behalf-of delegation so the model acts only within the calling user’s entitlements.
Insist on model neutrality in the enforcement layer. You will run models from more than one provider, and an enforcement layer tied to a single vendor’s API becomes a second lock-in point.
Specify the kill switch in every AI vendor contract. Require session, user-application, and full-deployment suspension grains, a defined rollback capability for actions already taken, and a documented split between whoever configures policy and whoever can pull the switch. A small organization using one generative AI tool needs to know it can turn that tool off instantly. An organization running agentic workflows needs the same capability.
Score every AI model provider you depend on. Use the five-dimension framework whether or not you have a formal vendor risk program. Require software vendors to disclose which AI models sit inside the tools you have bought, with advance notice of model version changes. A generative AI model embedded in a productivity application you already license is a provider dependency even if nobody has mapped it.
Plan for simultaneous provider failure. Build concentration-risk scenarios into business continuity planning that assume your primary and backup model providers fail at the same time. Documented correlated outages and shared infrastructure across labs make this a planning requirement.
Size the governance program to your organization and build it around the enforcement layer. A large enterprise needs a formal AI governance program with dedicated ownership and board reporting, backed by continuous assurance. A mid-market company needs a named AI risk owner, a model inventory, and a quarterly review cadence. A smaller organization needs, at minimum, a list of every AI tool in use, with an approver and an off-switch for each.
What AI solution vendors must build
The enforcement obligation falls on the vendor side of the market as much as on buyers. Any company building, selling, or embedding an AI solution, whether a frontier model API, a generative AI feature in a SaaS product, or an agentic workflow platform, has to make external enforcement possible and, increasingly, provide it. Buyers who cannot enforce governance from outside the model are being failed by the products they buy. The build priorities:
Treat AI provider scoring as a native capability in GRC platforms. Frontier, generative, and agentic AI providers each need a distinct scoring category; a custom field on a generic SaaS questionnaire cannot supply one. The same scoring logic serves a Fortune 500 company with a dedicated GRC team and a mid-market organization managing vendor risk through a single analyst; the interface and workflow complexity can scale.
Offer fourth-party dependency discovery. Most enterprises do not know which foundation models sit inside the software they have already procured. A capability that traces embedded foundation models across a vendor portfolio and triggers scoring updates on version changes closes a gap that no generic TPRM questionnaire addresses today.
Separate the model from the enforcement layer at the network level. Any vendor selling an AI solution needs network-layer separation between the model and the policy engine, audit store, and configuration, demonstrable in an architecture diagram. This is the minimum architecture for any AI product whose output matters, and it should ship as a standard feature. Buyers in every market segment are starting to ask for the diagram, and vendors without one will lose evaluations.
Build chain-aware policy evaluation. Agentic and multi-agent workflows need policy engines that understand a session’s accumulated context and evaluate chains of related actions, beyond single requests in isolation. Generative AI with tool access creates shorter but still exploitable chains, and frontier models with external retrieval take on injection vectors at every hop.
Package concentration-risk modeling and continuous provider monitoring. Annual scoring is too slow for providers that can change materially between assessment cycles. Rescore on safety-framework updates, model version changes, and material incidents, and offer concentration-risk scenarios as a standing business continuity service.
Develop prebuilt EU AI Act Code of Practice scoring modules. Many buyers lack the in-house capacity to interpret the general-purpose AI (GPAI) Code of Practice. A prebuilt module that maps onto the regulatory posture dimension and updates as enforcement guidance evolves is a concrete differentiator now that enforcement has begun, on August 2, 2026.
Integrate AI risk indicators into existing GRC and continuous controls monitoring (CCM) platforms. The OWASP Top 10 for Agentic Applications for 2026 covers agentic risk. Generative AI embedded in enterprise tools needs its own content-policy and output-integrity control category, and frontier AI providers need capability-threshold monitoring as a standing signal. Each belongs in continuous monitoring as a native control category. Most large enterprises deploy all three today and need a unified view across them.
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A voluntary safety framework you cannot score is just a press release. And a system prompt you rely on as a security boundary is not a control; it is a courtesy. The principle is not that every control must sit outside the agent. It is that every control must operate independently of the model’s decision-making. Deterministic controls at the agent level, the harness level, and external enforcement boundaries each play a role. What no organization can afford is to have the model as both the worker and the referee of its own behavior.
Philip D. Harris, CISSP, CCSK - Research Director, Governance, Risk, and Compliance (GRC) Solutions
Phil Harris is Research Director for GRC Solutions at IDC, where he develops and promotes IDC's point of view on risk, advisory, privacy, and compliance services and software. He conducts research on business strategies and the impact of relevant offerings…
Most CTOs can describe their technology roadmap with total confidence. Fewer can say, with real evidence, whether that roadmap is ahead of the market or just ahead of last year’s version of itself.
IDC’s research on AI maturity puts a number on that gap. Across the organizations IDC tracked, 3.1% have reached true AI maturity, able to scale AI systems reliably and govern them at pace. 61.3% sit in the two least mature stages, still working out the basics of data foundation and governance. Most technology leaders don’t know which side of that split their own organization falls on, because nobody benchmarked it.
That’s the pattern with architecture bets generally, not just AI maturity specifically. A CTO commits budget to a platform, a data layer, an integration approach, based on internal conviction and a vendor’s roadmap pitch, with whatever due diligence time allowed. What’s usually missing is a fourth input: how that bet compares to what peer organizations are doing, backed by data that wasn’t self-reported by a vendor with something to sell.
The excessive-spending question makes the stakes concrete. 73% of organizations worldwide call excessive AI spending a major risk, climbing to 77% in healthcare and financial services. An architecture decision that looks sound in isolation can still be the thing driving that number up, if nobody checked it against how similar organizations are allocating.
This is what “benchmarked” should mean for a technology bet: not a survey taken once and reused all year, but continuously tracked market activity and the judgment of analysts who watch the category for a living. IDC Quanta is built on more than 1,000 experts across over 100 countries, tracking vendor activity and technology adoption as it happens rather than reconstructing it from a quarterly poll.
That evidence does double duty. The same benchmark that catches a bad platform bet early is also what’s already in hand the next time the board asks a CTO to defend the technology roadmap and the multi-year investment behind it.
None of this requires slowing down. A CTO who checks a platform bet against tracked peer data before committing budget gets an early warning inside IDC Quanta, well before the market delivers the same news the hard way. Charting your strategy faster starts with knowing, before you commit, whether the strategy is ahead.
Ryan Smith is the Director of Content Marketing at IDC, where he leads brand-level content and social media strategy, aligning research insights with compelling storytelling to engage technology decision-makers. With a background in both IT and marketing, Ryan brings a unique blend of technical understanding and creative strategy to his work. He’s also a seasoned storyteller, speaker, and podcast host who believes the right message, told the right way, can drive both trust and transformation.
Christina Cardoza - Content Marketing Manager - IDC
Christina Cardoza is a Content Marketing Manager at IDC, where she specializes in brand content and social media strategy. With a background in journalism and editorial leadership, she has a proven ability to transform complex technology topics into clear, actionable insights.
Lily is the Research Manager for China Robotics and Embodied Intelligence, specializing in market research on embodied intelligent robots. She has long focused on the development trends of China’s embodied intelligence robotics industry, systematically studying the evolution of robot hardware,…
A CTO explaining, for the third time this quarter, why the company runs five different models across four teams describes most enterprise AI programs heading into the new year. No one outside the AI group can name all five with confidence. Eighteen months ago, the question was simple: which frontier model to standardize on. Today the answer is a constellation of small, regional, and domain-specific models, each chosen for a defensible reason and none of them mapped against the others.
What worries the CTO now is accountability: who owns the five models already in production, and what happens to the roadmap when three of them get deprecated in the same product cycle. That’s a governance and org-design question, and right now it’s being handled like a procurement one.
Match the model to the mission
The instinct to default to the biggest, most capable frontier model for every task is the assumption worth retiring. IDC tracked 66 open language models released in 2024 alone, with 34 more in the second quarter of 2025, and the release pace hasn’t slowed. A meaningful share of that growth is smaller, domain-tuned, and regionally optimized models built to do one job well.
That matters directly for a model-selection decision happening this quarter. Model choice should follow the use case. A smaller or domain-specific model, sometimes a regional one, frequently wins on cost and fit for a given task, where a general-purpose frontier model pays for breadth the task never uses. The best model for the job is rarely the biggest one.
Who owns the growing model roster
That accountability question is getting harder to answer, because the roster it’s about keeps growing. Enterprises are entering what IDC calls a multimodel, multimodal, multiagent era, one that needs evaluation, architecture, and orchestration competencies that didn’t need to exist two years ago. A dedicated GenAI evaluation category has caught up fast enough that IDC’s 2025 MarketScape already assessed 13 vendors in it, a category that barely existed the year before.
That governance work doesn’t end once a model is approved. Approval isn’t the finish line. The evaluation category emerged specifically because the portfolio keeps changing after signature, and testing has to run alongside it, not just at procurement. Your engineering team can track any one model closely. The portfolio as a whole is the harder watch, and right now it’s nobody’s job specifically.
The organizational response to that growth is a named owner. IDC is tracking a new role, the Chief AI Officer, with a formal strategic mandate most org charts didn’t carry two years ago. The role exists specifically to own decisions that used to default to whichever engineering team shipped first. Enterprises without that named owner are accumulating sprawl and data debt, plus the integration risk that comes with both, none of it budgeted for.
Expect this to formalize rather than stay ad hoc: model-selection governance tied to use case, cost, and compliance, continued funding for evaluation tooling as its own budget line, and the Chief AI Officer, or an equivalent, picking up ecosystem-level decisions no single engineering team can make alone. None of that requires waiting for the title to exist on your org chart first.
Three questions worth asking this quarter
None of this sits apart from the governance questions already landing on the CFO’s and CISO’s desks. Choosing a model is no longer a one-time technical decision made at kickoff. It’s now tied to what it costs and who’s accountable for it, the same fight already playing out over AI budget ownership and agent audit trails elsewhere in the organization.
Whether or not the Chief AI Officer title exists yet in your org chart, three questions are worth asking now:
Who owns the model portfolio today, by name?
What’s the plan when a model your team depends on gets deprecated mid-cycle?
Is your evaluation process a one-time procurement gate, or an ongoing discipline?
You don’t choose a model anymore. You govern a constellation. That starts with naming an owner this quarter, before the next model gets added to the roster without one.
Curious how your model portfolio compares heading into the new year? Check out IDC Quanta for an independent, vendor-neutral read on where your approach stands relative to the market.
Ryan Smith - Content Marketing Director - IDC
Ryan Smith is the Director of Content Marketing at IDC, where he leads brand-level content and social media strategy, aligning research insights with compelling storytelling to engage technology decision-makers. With a background in both IT and marketing, Ryan brings a unique blend of technical understanding and creative strategy to his work. He’s also a seasoned storyteller, speaker, and podcast host who believes the right message, told the right way, can drive both trust and transformation.
Christina Cardoza - Content Marketing Manager - IDC
Christina Cardoza is a Content Marketing Manager at IDC, where she specializes in brand content and social media strategy. With a background in journalism and editorial leadership, she has a proven ability to transform complex technology topics into clear, actionable insights.
2026 年,随着生成式 AI 与企业核心系统的持续化融合,中国企业资源管理(Enterprise Resource Management,ERM)领域的 AI Agent 正从通用问答和单点辅助,走向核心业务流程的深度嵌入。市场竞争也从技术功能展示,转向可落地、可复用的完整业务闭环。对于财务、采购、人力等关键场景,企业关注的不再只是模型能否给出答案,而是智能体能否理解业务、调用服务、完成任务,并在权限与规则约束下持续创造经营价值。
近日,国际数据公司(IDC)发布《IDC MarketScape:中国企业资源管理市场 AI Agent 2026 年厂商评估》(Doc# CHC54441226,2026 年 9 月)研究报告。报告基于厂商调研与访谈、公开信息以及最终用户体验,从能力与战略两个维度展开综合评估,帮助技术提供者明确产品升级与交付重点,也为企业用户更新 AI Agent 选型标准、推进业务场景落地提供参考。 如需了解更多评估结果,可参考所发布的报告。
财务、采购、人力等低容错率场景,决定了 AI Agent 不能仅以单轮问答准确率衡量。报告显示,相关厂商正在采用业务程序与大模型配合的执行方式:确定性计算和关键校验交由传统程序或规则引擎完成,大模型主要承担意图识别、任务规划、流程编排和结果解读。配合原始单据溯源、置信度阈值、规则抽检与回归测试,可以降低模型幻觉与随机性对核心业务的影响。对异常和高风险动作,应通过人工确认、阻断或回滚机制控制风险。
Wenting Xu, senior research manager with IDC China's Enterprise Application Research, focuses on research and analysis of the China enterprise system and software area. She provides intelligence and consulting services for local and multinational corporation IT vendors. Wenting has developed a deep…
For the past few years, Meta Connect has been at the center of ongoing debates: is the Metaverse dead? Are AI glasses the next big thing? Will Zuckerberg’s latest bet pay off? This year answered a bit of all three. But the biggest news wasn’t one flashy new product. It was how many products Meta is now selling, at how many prices, in how many countries.
The VR glasses gamble
The headline reveal was Meta VR Glasses, Meta’s first real pair of VR glasses instead of a bulky headset. They weigh about 100 grams, five times lighter than a Quest 3, because the compute is separated from the headset into a puck that’s carried in the pocket rather than sitting on your face. They have a 5K screen, full color see-through video, support for Dolby Vision and Atmos, and about three hours of battery life. They launch in spring 2027 and cost $1,299.
That price says it all. This thing is priced like a PC, and it’s really part PC, part game console, part movie theater, which is exactly how Meta is pitching it. But the real point isn’t the spec sheet. Its standalone nature and high-fidelity experience give Meta its own platform, one that doesn’t need Apple, Google, or Microsoft. This is a product for consumers who are already sold on the category or enterprises looking to pilot VR, not the mass market that Meta is chasing with everything else it announced this week.
The pricing move matters as much as the platform argument. Meta has spent three headset generations racing to the bottom on price, so a device costing roughly four times as much as a base Quest is a deliberate step up-market, not a discount play. The data shows why the timing works in Meta’s favor: shipments of this passthrough-VR category, the group Quest and Vision Pro both sit in, peaked in 2024, then fell 44% in 2025 and a further 27% this year.
IDC already had the category turning in 2027, growing roughly 41% that year, so Meta VR Glasses is stepping into a recovery already built into the forecast, not one it’s creating from scratch.
That timing matters because Meta’s Quest-based headsets have taken the majority of this category’s unit sales every year since 2024, against under 7% for Apple’s visionOS, even though Apple’s average selling price runs above $3,000 against something that’s well below $1,000 for Android-based devices. Meta doesn’t need this device to win share it doesn’t have. It needs a flagship on shelves as the turn towards recovery arrives next year.
Filling out the price ladder
That mass-market push showed up everywhere else at the event as Meta launched multiple pairs of glasses and aims to have 100 designs available to consumers by the end of the year. First up is the Ray-Ban Meta Gen 3, starting at $449, with a 12MP camera, 3K video, nine hours of battery, and additional microphones compared to the previous gen that cut background noise by 90%. Below that is a new option: Ray-Ban Meta Audio, starting at $349. No camera, just an AI assistant, music, and calls, with 12 hours of battery. This is the pair of glasses that has a broader appeal due to its price point and sidesteps privacy concerns faced by Meta’s other glasses that are equipped with cameras. The reduction in price and the absence of the camera will likely help Meta find new users who are currently on the fence when it comes to buying smart glasses. However, the absence of the camera is also potentially cutting the product off at its knees, as many consumers buy smart glasses for the video/photo capabilities, and longer term, it also means missing out on multimodal AI capabilities that are enabled by an onboard camera.
These two products are sold in conjunction with Meta’s own glasses, no Ray-Ban name attached, which start at $249. Beyond these glasses, Meta also sells a special edition with Kylie Jenner and announced a new version with Blackpink’s Lisa. For the uncultured (like myself), these are big-name celebrity endorsements which help the glasses maker capture a fashion-forward and potentially younger audience. Meta now sells glasses from $249 all the way to $1,299. That’s a big change from having just one flagship product, unlike other brands. This puts Meta in a very strong position against the competition, letting it compare feature sets and prices across a wide audience.
Display glasses finally go global
The other big piece of news was regarding availability of the Ray-Ban Meta Display, the $799 pair with a built-in screen. These glasses are finally launching outside the US, in the UK, Canada, and parts of Europe this month. I posted about this on X when it broke: based on IDC’s findings, demand in the US has been so strong that Meta has struggled to keep enough in stock over the past year. Getting these to other countries matters for more than just people like me in Canada who want to try a pair. It shows Meta has finally fixed its supply chain enough to sell beyond its home market.
Muse expands its reach
Meta also gave more stage time to Muse, its AI assistant. Muse is getting a smarter model and new connections to other apps, and it’s moving onto the Ray-Ban Meta glasses themselves so it’s available all day, not just when you open an app. Meta also showed off Muse Charm, a small pendant gadget with a screen, speakers, mics, and a fingerprint sensor, meant to carry a “real-time voice and avatar” version of Muse with you. There’s not much detail yet, and more is coming later this year, but it’s clearly meant to tie the glasses lineup together with Meta’s bigger AI plans.
Putting Muse directly onto the glasses, rather than leaving it as something you open on a phone, is the more consequential move of the two AI announcements this week. A phone-based assistant only helps once you’ve stopped what you’re doing and pulled the phone out. An assistant built into glasses you’re already wearing can listen, watch, and help without any of that friction, translating a conversation or setting a reminder without a single tap. That shift, from an app you visit to an assistant that’s simply there, is what turns smart glasses from a nice camera into something people rely on daily, and gives them a reason to stay with one brand rather than treat glasses as a one-off gadget. Still, one of the challenges Muse faces is being confined to its glasses and keychain charm; Apple and Google have enabled their own AI assistants across multiple devices, including glasses, headsets, smartphones, PCs, and tablets. In those cases, Muse will likely be available as an application instead of part of the AI layer built into the operating system.
For now, IDC has this smart glasses category growing from around 13 million units this year to 25 million by 2030, a market worth roughly $7.5 billion, growing faster in units than in value as prices ease with scale.
That’s the business worth watching: it’s an order of magnitude larger in near-term units than the VR headset category, and Muse is the feature meant to make people stay in it.
What the IDC data says
Meta owned 68.7% of the XR glasses/headset market in 2026Q2. Nobody else is close. The bigger story is in the mix underneath that number. Display glasses like the Ray-Ban Meta Display grew to 14.3% of shipments, up from 11%. Headsets captured 15.4% and thin/light glasses with (or without) cameras represented the largest share at 70.3%. The market is clearly moving toward light, cheap, everyday glasses, which is exactly what Meta spent this event building out. Pricier headsets such as Meta’s VR glasses represent a small but dedicated audience despite the technological marvel that they are.
The bottom line is that Meta’s dominant position and Zuckerberg’s willingness to continuously invest in this category is likely to keep them in the lead despite upcoming products from competitors. By filling out the price ladder, Meta is ensuring that consumers of all sorts, and more importantly developers, continue to create or port their best XR experiences on Meta’s devices. And Meta’s Muse AI is trying to do something similar by offering extremely low-cost (free to start) access to end users for a highly capable AI agent.
Call it a real opportunity, but a defensive one. Meta isn’t trying to take a headset market it doesn’t already have; it’s defending one it already dominates, before lighter AR glasses from Snap, Google, XREAL, and eventually Apple make the whole idea of a headset feel dated. The smart glasses side of the business, priced from $249 to $449 and growing on units far faster than on value, is where Meta is actually playing to win.
Jitesh Ubrani - Director, Consumer Devices Research
Jitesh Ubrani is a Director at IDC leading a team of analysts within the Worldwide Consumer Device Trackers group, covering wearables, augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), tablets, phones, PCs, gaming, and smart home devices, with a focus on market…
Imagine being responsible for making sure market intelligence reaches the right decision-maker before a call gets made without it, at a global technology company that manufactures, delivers services, and funds serious R&D all at once. Now imagine doing it with a team of two. For years, that’s held up. It just doesn’t scale.
That’s the team the company’s Head of Information Management runs. Her group doesn’t produce research. It makes sure the research that already exists, inside the company and from partners like IDC, gets used. “We try and make information available and findable as easily and quickly as possible,” she said, “so that if somebody’s in a meeting, they can get to it quickly, or they can come to us and we can get to it quickly.”
Two people can stay close to maybe the top few hundred decision-makers in a company of that size. But everyone else is on their own. That is exactly the gap the company is trying to close with AI and tools like IDC Quanta.
A decade of using IDC to pressure-test decisions, not just source data
Long before AI entered the picture, one of the company’s regional strategy teams built a standing cadence with IDC analysts: a call every six weeks, with her team submitting the questions two days ahead so IDC could weigh in before the conversation even started.
That extra step mattered more than it sounds. “A lot of times what would come back is, ‘No, that’s not the questions you should be asking,'” she said. Her team would come in wanting data on one topic; the analysts would redirect them to a different one entirely. On numbers the company couldn’t break out itself, IDC analysts walked through the reasoning behind a breakdown, stress-tested the logic with the team, and told them plainly when their assumptions didn’t hold up.
It’s a pattern that shows up across the company’s engagement with IDC. The relationship delivers a second opinion sharp enough to change the question being asked, well beyond data on demand.
That’s the foundation IDC Quanta had to build on, and, as the company has found, a foundation that turns out to matter a lot once AI tools start competing for the same job.
The real cost of AI answers nobody can verify
As general AI tools spread across the organization, a new problem showed up alongside the old one: getting an answer got faster, but trusting it got slower. When a leader asks for information on a topic, her team has watched colleagues turn to whatever open AI tool is on hand, then come back with a case to make.
“I have to waste time going in and looking at who the analyst is, where they work, who they work for, is it a credible firm,” she said. “I can’t just say no, it’s not credible. I have to explain why.” In one recent instance, the firm behind numbers a colleague had pulled couldn’t even spell the company’s own name correctly.
For her, that verification tax, the time spent fact-checking an AI’s sources instead of using its answer, is the exact problem IDC Quanta removes. Because IDC Quanta’s answers are drawn from IDC’s own verified research and cite the report behind every response, her team no longer has to relitigate credibility before anyone can act on what it says.
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That’s where firms like IDC will really excel, being able to leverage the credibility you already have, so people don’t have to question whether they can trust the number.
The other detail that stood out to her: what IDC Quanta does when the answer isn’t fully available. Where some AI research tools simply decline to answer a question outside a client’s subscription, IDC Quanta tells her what it can share and names the specific reports that would close the gap. “That to me is so much more helpful,” she said. “If we’re working on a key strategic topic, well then let’s buy those two reports, and use IDC Quanta to keep pulling the data out from there.”
A partner, not just a provider
The company sees AI extending its analyst relationships further than two people could ever reach on their own. When the company rolled out AI internally, the number of questions landing on her personally dropped by half, because AI could get people most of the way to an answer without waiting on her team. She expects IDC Quanta to do the same for her own workflow: fewer questions she has to chase down herself, and more time for the harder problems that still need her judgment.
What she’s watching for next is smaller and more practical: a tool that can recognize an outdated chart she drops in and pull the updated version automatically, so she spends less time hunting for the right version and more time using what she already knows is true.
For her, that’s the real value of the relationship. “I think that’s what you need to be,” she said. “A partner, and not just a provider.”
Christina Cardoza is a Content Marketing Manager at IDC, where she specializes in brand content and social media strategy. With a background in journalism and editorial leadership, she has a proven ability to transform complex technology topics into clear, actionable insights.
Qualcomm flew members of the IDC team to Maui for this year’s Snapdragon Summit, and the theme of the week has been agentic AI. CEO Cristiano Amon used the day-one keynote to argue that the smartphone is moving from an app-centric model, where the user starts every task, to an agent-centric one, where software acts on the user’s behalf and is instant, dependable, and frictionless. “In the agentic age, the experience begins with intent,” he said. On day two, Qualcomm took that argument well past the phone, to PCs, glasses, watches, earbuds, and emerging form factors such as pendants.
Day one: The smartphone remains central
Amon was clear that the phone isn’t going away. His thesis is that it becomes more important, because it’s the device that knows you best and is always with you. He also set a practical bar for adoption: people will hand tasks to an agent only if they trust it and if it’s easier than doing the task themselves.
Google’s Rick Osterloh joined Amon on stage with numbers that show how much of this currently runs in the cloud. Gemini has reached 1 billion monthly users, and token usage is up 7x year over year. So what’s the value of running AI locally?
Qualcomm’s answer is the personal layer. Amon said an on-device agent needs personal knowledge, secure permissions, the ability to act on your behalf, persistent context, real-time reasoning, and multimodal input. Most of that depends on what the phone knows about you.
Qualcomm also teased a co-processor called High Bandwidth Compute (HBC) for Snapdragon that moves memory and AI compute closer together, headed for smartphones, laptops, glasses, and cars. In its datacenter accelerator cards and other datacenter implementations, the term HBC is a play on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) for servers and refers to a near-memory implementation for processing AI workloads. Integrating this into its device SoCs could make Qualcomm more competitive on on-device AI workloads, with faster performance and lower power consumption. More details are expected at Mobile World Congress in 2027.
Two new flagship smartphone chips
For the first time, Qualcomm split its top mobile platform in two: the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 and the 8 Elite Extreme Gen 6. Qualcomm’s thesis is that one part can’t serve a flagship tier that now spans slabs, Pro Max models, foldables, camera phones, and gaming devices. With memory pricing disrupting the status quo, offering a second option gives OEMs more room to manage cost while prioritizing higher efficiency or higher performance depending on the use case.
The Gen 6 is the mainstream flagship part, on a 2nm process with the Oryon CPU and LPDDR5. The Extreme is the more interesting of the pair. Qualcomm says its Oryon CPU is the first in mobile to break 5 GHz. It moves to LPDDR6, adds matrix cores inside the Adreno GPU, and puts a heat slug directly on the die, which Qualcomm says doubles how long the chip can hold peak performance.
Qualcomm says the Extreme’s Hexagon NPU can run 30-billion-parameter mixture-of-experts models directly from flash. Its redesigned Sensing Hub powers Personal Scribe, which builds a personal knowledge graph on the device. That’s the persistent context Amon said agents need.
Xiaomi’s 18 Pro uses the Gen 6, and the 18 Pro Max uses the Extreme, with Motorola, OnePlus, OPPO, vivo, and others in line. Qualcomm says the price gap between the tiers will likely land around $100.
Day two: Agents across more devices
Kedar Kondap, who runs Qualcomm’s compute business, boiled it all down to one question: Where should inference run? He said the cloud brings the largest models and the deepest reasoning, while devices bring low latency, privacy, and personal context. But at the scale Qualcomm is talking about, he argued, the economics of sending every token to the cloud simply don’t work. That’s a more defensible pitch than the AI PC claims of the last few years.
New PCs on Snapdragon X2
Kondap called the PC the anchor node, with the thermal headroom and memory to run larger models locally. More than 7,300 apps now run on Windows on Snapdragon, he said, across 170-plus designs.
Microsoft’s Brett Ostrum introduced the next Surface Pro 12-inch and Surface Laptop 13-inch, both on Snapdragon X2 Plus. Microsoft claims up to 95% faster on-device AI and more than 60% faster graphics gen-over-gen, plus 25% brighter displays. The Pro starts at $1,150 and adds an optional 5G model for business. The Laptop starts at $1,200 and is rated for up to 22.5 hours of video playback. Both ship October 13 in select markets, along with a new $80 haptic Surface Mouse.
Developers have wanted Linux on Snapdragon for years. Qualcomm said it’s now officially supported, starting with the X2 series. Debian arrives at the end of this year. Ubuntu certification from Canonical follows in the first half of next year, along with ASUS Zenbook A14 and A16 models running it. Kondap also pointed to HUMAIN’s Horizon Ultra, an X2 Elite PC unveiled at LEAP that runs a Linux-based agentic OS.
Googlebook: A new laptop category
Googlebook broke as its own announcement on Monday, and Google’s John Solomon filled in the details on stage. It’s a new laptop category that combines Chrome OS and Android, aimed at Android phone owners. Solomon pitched it as the end of the “toggle tax” between phone and laptop, with access to phone files, native desktop Android apps, full desktop Chrome, and Gemini features such as Magic Pointer.
On wearables, Qualcomm said Snapdragon AR1 and AR1+ are the first personal AI platforms to support multimodal 1-bit models, built on work with PrismML that cuts memory needs enough to run larger models on glasses.
Google’s Shahram Izadi showed the Snapdragon-based Pixel Watch 5 and Android XR devices from Samsung and XREAL. Google is also working with Gentle Monster and Warby Parker on AR1 glasses due later this year.
Qualcomm’s Snapdragon START program packages an AR1 module, software, and white-label designs to get glasses to market faster. UK eyewear maker Inspecs showed camera-equipped enterprise safety glasses and said it went from kickoff to working device in four months. Awear showed an agentic OS built around eyewear. Qualcomm also previewed a 5G personal AI pin reference design on Snapdragon Wear Elite, and formed a Personal AI Health Alliance around uses such as fall-risk prediction and clinical notes.
Snapdragon Sound Elite Gen 2 introduced
For earbuds, Qualcomm introduced Snapdragon Sound Elite Gen 2, which it calls the first premium audio platform built for personal AI. Versus the S7 Gen 1 Sound platform, Qualcomm claims a 30% smaller footprint, twice the AI performance, and up to 40% lower power. It also adds integrated micro-power Wi-Fi, so earbuds can reach cloud services and agents without a phone.
That enables a Snapdragon Sound Apps and Agents ecosystem, starting with MicroEJ, Cinemo, and Roon. HP, Bose, and Cleer are developing products.
Software: Memory layers and developer tools
Liquid AI, whose models already run in Mercedes-Benz cars on Snapdragon silicon, announced Liquid Context, a memory layer that lets agents share context across devices. And Chris Lattner, who joined Qualcomm through its Modular acquisition, said Modular’s stack, including the open-source Mojo language, is coming to Snapdragon and Qualcomm’s Dragonfly datacenter chips. Mojo is intended to reduce friction for developers and challenge NVIDIA’s CUDA moat.
Across both days, Qualcomm made it clear that it wants to be the agent’s endpoint on every device a person carries, working alongside the cloud rather than against it. The open questions are which of these new form factors people will buy and which developers will prioritize. We’ll be watching.
Tom Mainelli - Group Vice President, Device & Consumer Research
Tom Mainelli heads the Device & Consumer Research Group, overseeing a wide array of hardware and technology categories catering to both home and enterprise markets. His team's research spans PCs, tablets, smartphones, wearables, smart home devices, thin clients, displays, and…
Phil Solis - Research Director, Computing Systems Platforms and Technologies, Enterprise Infrastructure
Phil Solis is Research Director within IDC's enterprise infrastructure global research domain, part of the computing systems, platforms, and technologies subdomain. He focuses on client computing and connectivity, with coverage spanning semiconductors for PCs, media tablets, and smartphones, as well…
Kiranjeet Kaur is an associate research director for IDC Asia/Pacific. She is involved in building IDC’s successful research tracker programs and producing core market data used across all of IDC's Asia/Pacific research reports and consulting projects. Based in Singapore, Kiranjeet…
Jitesh Ubrani - Director, Consumer Devices Research
Jitesh Ubrani is a Director at IDC leading a team of analysts within the Worldwide Consumer Device Trackers group, covering wearables, augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), tablets, phones, PCs, gaming, and smart home devices, with a focus on market…
Antonio Wang - Vice President, Client System Research, Imaging, Printing & Document Solution Research, and Research Operation Center, IDC China
Antonio Wang is currently the vice president for IDC China's Client System Research; Imaging, Printing & Document Solution Research; and the Research Operation Center. He leads the personal devices business and product team. With more than 18 years of experience…
A couple of months ago I was at Siemens Realize LIVE in Amsterdam, and over dinner at the media and analyst reception, a conversation with Tony Hemmelgarn, CEO of Siemens Digital Industries, took a turn I did not expect. From industrial AI to why a Delhi intersection, and a UK roundabout arrive at the same result through completely opposite means.
Somewhere in there the UK driving exam came up too (that thing is brutal!). Tony had lived in the UK for a while himself, so he knew exactly what that experience is like. Stay with me, it made more sense than it sounds.
I grew up in India and have lived in the UK for several years now, which means I have spent enough time driving in both places to appreciate just how different they really are. I also happened to be back home in Delhi this summer for the holidays.
If you have driven in Delhi, you know exactly what I mean. There is a kind of ‘beautiful chaos’ to it. Cars, bikes, buses, auto-rickshaws, pedestrians, delivery guys on scooters, all making their own decisions at the same time, somehow without a plan. There are traffic lights and lane markings, sure, but anyone who has actually spent time on those roads knows the rulebook is only half the story. You are reading the situation constantly. A gap opens, someone takes it. Someone else has already anticipated that. A scooter appears out of nowhere on your left. You adjust. And somehow, everyone just keeps moving.
Now put that next to driving in the UK. Almost comically different. Everything is explicit here. Lane discipline. Signalling. Right of way. Mirrors, always the mirrors. Anyone who has sat the UK driving test knows that knowing how to drive and proving you can drive by the book are two very different things. It took me more than one test (meh!) to pass the exam. Unlearning Delhi’s driving and then learning the UK’s is not a joke.
The UK runs on predictability and rules. Delhi has rules too, but what really keeps things moving is interpretation, anticipation, and a kind of collective improvisation. Being neck deep in all things ‘industrial AI’, I couldn’t stop seeing the parallel, because the real question underneath both is who’s in charge when the rulebook and the improvisation are happening at the same time. That’s basically the orchestration problem, just with more scooters!
What Happens When Rules Fail: The Real-World Orchestration Problem
My last blog was about why the context layer is becoming such a big battleground in industrial AI. The next part to this is what happens after a system actually has that context. Knowing what is going on is one thing. Deciding what to do about it, especially when nobody has seen the situation before, is a different problem entirely.
For decades, industrial automation has been really good at that second part, as long as we can write the rules down. If X happens, do Y. Temperature crosses a threshold, trigger the alert. Machine stops, stop the line. Inventory drops below a level, reorder. That is honestly why automation has worked so well for so long. We take messy physical processes and turn them into decisions that repeat the same way every time. Nothing wrong with that at all, when the world is predictable, rules are genuinely powerful.
But what happens when the world is not predictable?
A machine starts behaving differently because the material batch changed. A supplier is late. Energy prices spike overnight. A production order gets rewritten at the last minute. An operator does something slightly different because they know something the system was never told. Or, my personal favourite, three unrelated things go wrong at exactly the same moment, and now it is not one system’s problem to solve. It is a question of who is in charge, and who decides.
Usually, the problem is not that the system does not have enough data. It might be drowning in it. The problem is that nobody wrote this particular situation into the rulebook, because nobody thought to.
Scaling AI Adoption: Why Most Pilots Don’t Translate to Production
Scaling AI, automation, and digital transformation is now the single biggest business priority for manufacturers globally, ahead of cutting costs, ahead of innovation, ahead of supply chain resilience from IDC’s own Worldwide Manufacturing 2026 Survey. And yet only around one in five manufacturers have actually gotten AI to scaled production use across multiple workflows or sites. Most are still piloting, or stuck running it in a limited corner somewhere. That gap between what people say they want and what is actually running on the floor is, in my mind, that same problem playing out at scale.
Blending Rules and Improvisation: A New Model for Industrial AI
We tend to talk about AI in manufacturing through use cases. Predictive maintenance. Quality inspection. Scheduling. Forecasting. All fine, all useful, but underneath all of that sits a much simpler question: can a system make a good call when the situation was never anticipated in the first place? That, to me, is really the line between automation and autonomy. Automation runs a known response. Autonomy has to read a situation, weigh a few options, and decide what happens next.
This is where the traffic thing earns its place, I think. Delhi has not beaten the UK at this. The UK has not beaten Delhi either. Both systems genuinely work, they just carry complexity differently. The UK gives industrial AI something it cannot do without: rules, constraints, predictability. You do not want an agent treating a safety requirement as optional, or skipping a maintenance step because it spotted a quicker path. Delhi gives you the other half of the lesson, which is that the real world does not always follow the plan, and when it does not, something needs to be able to interpret and adapt in the moment.
Traditional automation asks what should happen when a condition occurs. AI lets us ask something harder: given everything happening right now, what should happen? The first question can be programmed in an afternoon. The second needs judgement, including knowing when to ask a human. It also needs an understanding that the locally smart move can quietly create a bottleneck or a maintenance headache somewhere else entirely.
The decision stops being about one machine or one KPI. It becomes about the whole system, which is probably why I think the next real fight after the context layer is orchestration, agents working across ERP, MES, EAM, supply chain and energy together, not just sitting inside one application doing their own thing.
So maybe the future of industrial AI needs a bit of both: the UK’s rules and Delhi’s improvisation, with AI doing the very unglamorous job of figuring out which one a moment is asking for, across every system involved, not just the one closest to the problem.
The Path Forward
Underneath all of this sits a broader challenge: how intelligence works across systems, processes, people, and increasingly other agents. That’s orchestration. And as industrial AI moves from individual use cases into day-to-day operations, it is becoming harder to ignore.
For manufacturers, I think this changes the discussion slightly. Most organisations already have plenty of AI ideas, pilots, and use cases. What feels less clear is what happens when those systems need to work together. How does an AI-driven decision in one part of the operation affect everything else that sits downstream? Who is coordinating across ERP, MES, EAM, supply chain, and energy systems? And when things do not go according to plan, how does the system decide whether to act on its own or pull a human into the loop?
Those feel like the more interesting questions because they are not really about AI models at all. They are about how intelligence, whether human or machine, is orchestrated across the operation. And that may be one reason why so many organisations still struggle to move from promising pilots to something that operates at scale.
Contact our experts to explore how industrial AI orchestration applies to your manufacturing strategy.
Gunjan Bassi has more than 14 years' experience working in the logistics and transportation sector. Before joining IDC, she worked with Transport Intelligence (Ti), a transportation and logistics research firm based in Bath, England, where she was responsible for vertical…
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