IDC FutureScape Figure

Figure: IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Banking 2023 Top 10 Predictions

Executive Summary

IDC FutureScape Predictions

Summary of External Drivers

Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers

Prediction 1: By 2026, 40% of Global Banks Will Have a Strategy of Standing Up a Digital Core Banking System Alongside Its Current Application, Without the Urgency of Replacing the Legacy System Entirely

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 2: In an Effort to Increase Global Resiliency and Scale, 30% of the World's Top Banks Will Be Sharing Data, Applications, and Operations in Multi-Industry Ecosystem Environments by 2025

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 3: By 2027, One in Five Global Banks Will Abandon the CSAT as a Measure of Customer Experience and Adopt the CES — Customer Effort Correlated to Outcomes as a Key Indicator of Journey Satisfaction and Success

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Business Impact

Guidance

Prediction 4: Ransomware and Other Cybersecurity Attacks Will Remain a Serious Threat and Will Increase by 20% from 2022 Through 2024, Mostly Because of Phishing Attacks and Weak Password Construction

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 5: By 2027, 10% of Attempted Identity Fraud Will Be Reduced Because of More Sophisticated AI/ML and Deep Learning Algorithms by Leveraging Available Data Through Open Banking Sources

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 6: Driven by Increasing Technical Complexity and Growing Numbers of Payment Rails, 50% of Global Banks Will Adopt Payments as a Service for Some or All Payment Processing Workloads by 2028

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 7: Fueled by Mobile BNPL Applications and Mobile Wallets, BNPL and Similar Installment Payment Methods Will Capture 7% of Online Purchase Transactions by 2026

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 8: By 2028, 50% of Corporates Will Practice Enterprise Liquidity Management Requiring Banks to Deliver API-Based, Real-Time Data Services and Transactional Services to Centralize Treasury Operations

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 9: By 2027, 50% of New Securities Issued Globally Will Be Issued as NFTs (or Blockchain-Based Tokens), as a Technology Channel for Private and Public Equities and Debt

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Prediction 10: By 2025, 50% of Lending Portfolios of Tier 1 Global Banks Will Be Clearly Linked to Sustainability

Associated Drivers

IT Impact

Guidance

Advice for Technology Buyers

External Drivers: Detail

Storms of Disruption — Accelerating, Interconnected Uncertainty

Cybersecurity and Risk — Scaling and Evolving Threat Environment

Digital Business — Stepping Stone to the Future Enterprise

Meaningful Intelligence — Differentiated Decision Power

Ecosystem-Based Innovation — Driving Enterprise Value

Mainstream ESG — Sustainability Is Measured and Mandatory

Everything as a Service — Thriving Through the Change

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