Logo
Become a Client

At IDC, our analysts and data get a lot of the spotlight, and rightfully so. But behind every research report, every client relationship, and every strategic decision is a team of people making sure IDC can do what it does best. Renuka Drummond, IDC’s General Counsel, is one of those people. And this spring, the broader legal community took notice.

Renuka was named one of the Top 10 Corporate Counsel worldwide by the OnCon Icon Awards, a peer and community-voted recognition that honors professionals who have made a considerable impact on their organizations, shown innovation in their roles, and demonstrated exceptional leadership. It’s a meaningful distinction in a field where the best work often happens quietly, behind the scenes.

A career built on being close to the business

Renuka’s path to IDC started in Big Law in New York, where she spent roughly a decade advising private equity clients and global companies on complex, multi-jurisdictional transactions at Baker Botts and Akin Gump. But she felt drawn to something different: being inside the business, closer to strategy and the people responsible for execution.

That pull led her to Cognizant, a Fortune 200 global technology company, where she led M&A as Associate General Counsel, managing cross-border acquisitions and integrations across healthcare, financial services, and digital industries on a global scale. From there, she became Chief Legal Officer at MediaKind, where she helped the company shift from legacy business models toward more sustainable growth.

She came to IDC because it brought those threads together: technology, data, global operations, and a company with a strong reputation at the center of how tech decisions get made.

What the work actually looks like

As general counsel, Renuka leads IDC’s legal team, which includes privacy and compliance, and supports work across the entire company. That means commercial contracts, data privacy, intellectual property, AI governance, legal entity management, and employee matters. Day to day, her team works alongside sales, product, finance, HR, and senior leadership.

She also serves as Corporate Secretary to IDC’s board, helping navigate governance and serving as a bridge between management and the board of directors.

“The simplest way to describe my job,” Renuka says, “is that I help IDC move quickly while staying protected.”

Proud of what the legal team is building

When asked what she’s most proud of at IDC, Renuka points to the role her team is playing in IDC’s AI transformation. IDC’s business depends on the quality and trustworthiness of its proprietary research and data. As AI has changed how information is accessed and embedded in customers’ workflows, the legal team has had to think carefully: building legal frameworks for new products, modernizing customer agreements, developing responsible AI terms and disclosures, and supporting new ways for customers to use IDC’s research.

“I’m proud of that because it captures what legal does best,” she says, “which is protect the company’s core assets while helping the business grow at the same time.”

Advice worth passing on

For anyone early in a legal career, Renuka offers two pieces of guidance: be curious about the business, and be intentional about the people you learn from.

Technical legal skills matter, she says. But the lawyers who become truly indispensable are the ones who understand how a company grows, what customers care about, and what risks actually matter in that context.

She also encourages young lawyers to choose their teams carefully. Surround yourself with people who will challenge you, invest in you, and hand you hard problems before you feel completely ready for them. “That’s how you build judgment and confidence,” she says, “and the ability to become a trusted advisor.”

Christina Cardoza - Content Marketing Manager - IDC

LinkedIn
Christina Cardoza is a Content Marketing Manager at IDC, where she specializes in brand content and social media strategy. With a background in journalism and editorial leadership, she has a proven ability to transform complex technology topics into clear, actionable insights.

What Happened in India’s Smartphone Market in Q1 2026?

India’s smartphone market shipments declined 4.1% year over year to 31.0 million units in Q1 2026, according to IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. Rising memory prices drove brands to front-load channel inventory ahead of anticipated cost escalations, pushing shipment volumes above initial expectations. However, underlying consumer demand remained subdued — weighed down by a typical post-festive slowdown, elevated device prices, and cautious spending sentiment. Despite falling volume, the market grew 5.8% in value terms, underscoring India’s ongoing shift from volume-led to value-driven growth.

Why It Matters

The Q1 2026 data signals a structural turning point for one of the world’s largest smartphone markets. Brands, retailers, and investors should take note:

  • Device makers relying on entry-level volume face shrinking margins and reduced market viability as memory costs continue to rise.
  • Consumers in sub-US$100 brackets are being pushed upmarket by necessity rather than aspiration — a trend that reshapes demand forecasting for 2026 and beyond.
  • The gap between channel inventory and actual consumer demand points to a near-term correction risk, particularly in affordable segments.

Market Dynamics: What Drove the Outcome?

The market’s performance was shaped by three converging forces:

  • Memory cost inflation → entry-level collapse: A global memory shortage drove up component prices across newly launched and existing models alike. Brands could no longer sustain profitability in the sub-US$100 tier, leading to reduced model availability and weaker channel participation. Shipments in this entry-level segment fell 59% YoY, with segment share collapsing from 18% to just 8%.
  • Forced premiumization → mass-budget gains: Consumers who could no longer find affordable sub-US$100 options migrated upward. The mass-budget segment (US$100–200) grew 10% YoY, expanding its share from 39% to 45% — driven more by eroding entry-level value than deliberate upgrade intent.
  • Promotional pullback → constrained demand recovery: Rising input costs limited brands’ ability to deploy the aggressive discounting and channel-led promotions that historically fuel mass-market growth. With fewer price interventions, underlying consumer demand stayed soft, particularly online, where shipments fell 14% YoY and share declined from 42% to 38%.

Price Band Performance

  • Entry-level (sub-US$100): −59% YoY; share fell from 18% to 8%
  • Mass-budget (US$100–200): +10% YoY; share rose from 39% to 45%
  • Entry-premium (US$200–400): −3% YoY; share edged up from 26% to 27%
  • Mid-premium (US$400–600): +29% YoY; share rose from 6% to 8%
  • Premium (US$600–800): +32% YoY; share rose from 4% to 6%
  • Super-premium (US$800+): −1% YoY; 7% share maintained

India Smartphone Market at a Glance – Q1 2026

  • Total shipments: 31.0 million units (−4.1% YoY)
  • Average selling price (ASP): US$302 (+10.4% YoY) — a record high
  • Market value growth: +5.8% YoY despite volume decline
  • Offline channel: 62% share (up from 58%); +3% YoY
  • Online channel: 38% share (down from 42%); −14% YoY
  • Top five brands: vivo (#1), Samsung (#2), OPPO (#3), Apple (#4), Motorola (#5, new entrant)

Analyst Insight

“Average selling prices increased 10.4% YoY to a record US$302 in Q1 2026, driven by persistent memory cost inflation across both newly launched devices and existing models. Unlike previous quarters, aggressive discounting and channel-led promotional schemes remained limited, as rising input costs constrained brands’ ability to stimulate demand through pricing interventions. The current environment signals a broader structural shift in the market, where brands may increasingly need to rely on product differentiation, financing offers, and premiumization strategies rather than price-led promotions to drive demand through the remainder of 2026.” said Aditya Rampal, senior research analyst, Devices Research, IDC Asia Pacific.

Note: This chart/table shows data by IDC’s Brand field. Company ranking may differ where Companies own more than one Brand.

*Figures in tables/charts rounded to the first decimal point.

IDC Outlook: What’s Next?

The first half of 2026 is expected to remain relatively resilient as brands draw on existing component inventories to partially offset rising memory costs. However, brands are increasingly revising annual shipment targets downward, with channel inventory managed cautiously — especially in entry-level segments.

Recovery in the second half will depend on how effectively brands balance product innovation, pricing strategy, and cost management against sustained component inflation and uneven consumer demand.

  • What could accelerate growth? Stabilization of memory prices, new financing models, and festive-season promotional activity.
  • What could slow it down? A prolonged memory shortage, further rupee depreciation, and continued weakness in mass-market consumer confidence.
  • What should readers watch next quarter? Whether brands can close the gap between channel inventory and end user sales, and how second-half pricing strategies unfold.

“In a value-conscious market like India, consumers have traditionally delayed purchases in anticipation of festive discounts and promotional offers. However, that pattern is unlikely to hold in the current cycle. With the global memory shortage expected to continue into 2027 and rupee depreciation adding further cost pressure, smartphone prices are set to rise further across segments. Consumers considering an upgrade may find better value in purchasing sooner, as pricing pressures are expected to intensify over the coming quarters,” said Upasana Joshi, senior research manager, Devices Research, IDC Asia/Pacific.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did the market decline despite strong premium demand?

Growth in higher price bands could not offset the sharp collapse of the entry-level segment. While brands pushed inventory ahead of anticipated price hikes, weak consumer demand and limited promotional activity constrained actual market absorption, leaving supply-side momentum ahead of end-user demand.

Which brands benefited most in Q1 2026?

Motorola and OPPO were the only top-five brands to register YoY growth, with Motorola entering the top five for the first time. Apple held fourth place with a 9% shipment share while leading the market by value with a dominant 28% share. Notably, despite a 5% YoY decline in Apple shipments, the iPhone 17 alone contributed 4% of total smartphone volumes — underscoring Apple’s sustained premium strength amid broader demand softness.

What risks could impact the market in 2026?

A prolonged memory shortage, rupee depreciation, and weakening mass-market viability are the key near-term headwinds. Recovery will increasingly depend on brands’ ability to drive demand through financing and affordability-led models, rather than the aggressive price-led promotions that have historically fueled market growth.

-Ends-

About IDC

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of trusted technology intelligence, advisory services, and events. With more than 1,000 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 100 countries. IDC’s analysis and insights help IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. To learn more about IDC, please visit  www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.

All product and company names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders.

Upasana Joshi

Upasana Joshi - Research Manager

Analyst Profile
Upasana Joshi is an Research Manager for Channel Research at IDC India. Based in Delhi, Upasana is primarily responsible for City Level Smartphone Tracker in India. The research involves analyzing the trends within Smart Phone domain, market sizing, brand performance…
Aditya Rampal

Aditya Rampal - Senior Research Analyst

Analyst Profile
Aditya Rampal is a senior research analyst for the India mobile market at IDC. He is responsible for end-to end mobile devices market research involving both primary and secondary research for smartphone and feature phones. Aditya analyzes trends within the…

Digital sovereignty is becoming a strategic priority across EMEA, reshaping how governments and enterprises choose infrastructure and network partners. This blog explores what the shift means for telcos, sovereign cloud, and AI infrastructure. 

Around the early 2010s, data residency was already part of the policy debate, but the infrastructure landscape was still more fragmented, and the issue had not yet become as central to cloud, AI, and national digital strategy as it is today. Telcos, regional ISPs, and a long tail of independent providers ran most of the hosting. The policy debates of the time already touched on carrier-neutral internet exchange points, peering, net neutrality, and data residency – how traffic moved between networks, where data was hosted, and who had jurisdiction over it. 

That picture has since changed twice over. 

First, market gravity shifted. A handful of hyperscalers and major social platforms absorbed most of the workloads, the storage, and the user attention. Hosting that used to sit inside national operators’ data centers consolidated into a few global clouds. 

Then policy caught up. Across EMEA, governments and regulators have moved data privacy, residency, and infrastructure control out of the compliance file and into national and regional strategy, with AI sovereignty layered on top, and geopolitical sovereignty sitting above all of it. 

For telcos, this is no longer a niche or optional conversation. It is actively shaping how enterprises and governments choose their network and infrastructure partners. 

How digital sovereignty is influencing buying decisions in EMEA 

The signal is clear. IDC’s EMEA Enterprise Communications and Collaboration Survey 2025 shows that, in response to geopolitical uncertainty, 28% of organizations are now more likely to use network service providers based in their own region, 27% are increasing their use of sovereign network services, and 26% are diversifying their network providers. Network infrastructure sits at the center of this shift, 70% of organizations cite sovereign controls over network infrastructure software as the most important component of technical sovereignty.  

The shift is showing up in budgets too. IDC’s 2025 Future Enterprise Resiliency & Spending Survey shows that nearly 30% of telcos plan to migrate applications from public cloud to country sovereign cloud infrastructure in 2026, with cybersecurity, regulatory compliance, and operational resilience among the top drivers of increased telco spending. 

Where AI and digital sovereignty converge 

AI has become a central thread in sovereignty conversations. The connection between cloud and AI needs has tightened, and sovereignty is now a recurring factor in both. IDC’s Worldwide AI and Generative AI Spending Guide Forecast (August 2025) projects AI and GenAI spending in EMEA telecommunications growing at a CAGR of 32% between 2024 and 2029, with telco AI spending set to treble by 2028. On the demand side, 53% of EMEA governments plan to increase their use of sovereign cloud for AI solutions, putting telcos squarely in the frame as infrastructure partners in sovereign AI ecosystems. 

The infrastructure shift is concrete. Among telcos, expanding data center capacity, AI inferencing (58%) and LLM training (54%) are the workloads driving most of the new build. Where these facilities sit, who certifies them, and who governs them is becoming a first-order strategic question. 

The role of telcos in sovereign cloud and AI ecosystems 

Governments across EMEA are pushing sovereign cloud and AI initiatives to take greater control of digital infrastructure and compute, and that is sharpening what buyers expect from their providers. 

Enterprise and public sector buyers are increasingly evaluating providers based on capabilities such as: 

  • In-country or in-region data centers  
  • Country-level certifications  
  • Freedom from lock-in 
  • Solutions to support operational resilience 
  • Sovereign controls of infrastructure  

Telcos are well placed to answer this list. National operators already own most of the underlying assets: in-country and in-region data centers, a regulatory and certification footprint, established government and enterprise relationships, and the connectivity layer itself. This is where telcos hold something cloud providers don’t; sovereign control over data in transit and the network layer itself. The bigger opportunity isn’t supplying pieces of someone else’s sovereign build. It’s pairing with sovereign cloud providers to deliver an end-to-end sovereign stack, data at rest and in motion, that neither side can credibly offer alone. 

What sovereignty looks like across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa 

Sovereignty is not a single play. The operator playbook looks different by sub-region. 

In Europe, regulation matters; and most of it now sits at EU level rather than national, but the top driver has shifted to protecting against extra-territorial data requests. Operators with strong domestic positions and certified infrastructure are best placed for both. 

In the Middle East, sovereignty is being driven top-down as national strategy. Governments are pairing sovereign cloud and AI ambition with serious capital, often through national champions, with major operators positioned as primary infrastructure partners. Established data localization regimes in some markets give operators a head start on dedicated capacity. 

In Africa, the story is data localization meeting infrastructure scale. National data protection frameworks are increasingly pushing data inside national borders, and pan-regional operators are expanding capacity that doubles as a sovereign-cloud foundation. 

Across all three, the playbook converges on regional infrastructure, certifications, simpler portfolios, and active ecosystem participation. Operators are also working with fewer, more strategic partners, ones that can take end-to-end accountability. 

Why sovereignty is becoming a default expectation 

Sovereignty has moved from a compliance topic to procurement criterion. It now sits alongside performance, cost, and scalability. AI and platform-based models only sharpen the demand for control, transparency, and resilience. 

For telcos, this isn’t a niche compliance discussion. It’s a strategic play, redefining what credible infrastructure looks like across EMEA, and where operators sit in the sovereign cloud and AI stack. 

Explore the broader telecom trends shaping 2026 
 
Sovereignty is one of several trends shaping the telecom market. In the IDC eBook State of the Telco Market 2026, you’ll find detailed data, forecasts, and analysis on topics including sovereign AI, infrastructure investment, and evolving business models. 

Download the eBook to explore the data behind these developments and better understand how the telco landscape is evolving. 

If you’re currently evaluating how sovereignty requirements will impact your network, infrastructure, or partner strategy, our experts are happy to exchange perspectives. Whether you’re at an early stage or already executing, we welcome the conversation. Get in touch with our team to continue the discussion. 

Tolga Yalcin

Tolga Yalcin - Research Director, Telecoms and ICT Regulations, IDC Middle East, Turkey, and Africa (META)

Analyst Profile
Tolga oversees the telecommunications and ICT policy and regulations side of IDC’s syndicated research, custom consulting, and advisory services in the Middle East, Turkey, and Africa region. Tolga plays an integral role in all IDC telecommunications-related initiatives in the Middle…

For three decades, the IT and business services industry has run on a familiar formula: scale headcount, drive utilization, price work by time and materials. That model built a $1.6 trillion industry. It will not carry the next one.

Agentic AI is changing the economics, the contract, and the control point of the services market. Service providers that recognize the shift early will redesign their portfolios around platforms, productized IP, and measurable outcomes. Those that wait will find themselves competing on price for work that is rapidly being automated, productized, or absorbed by software vendors and AI-native challengers.

This is not simply about doing the same work more efficiently. It is a fundamental shift in how services are built, sold, and delivered.

The three waves and why the next one is different

The services industry has evolved through distinct waves of value creation.

  • Outsourcing and systems integration created value through labor arbitrage.
  • Managed services and cloud migration created value through operational efficiency.
  • Digital transformation created value through business innovation.

The next wave breaks that pattern. Agent-enabled service delivery creates value through automation, intelligence, and measurable outcomes, and it rewrites the value equation on three axes at once. Buyers are moving from time and materials to outcomes and impact, from expertise access to insight and enablement, and from project delivery to platform-based action. What remains human moves up the stack: relationships, strategic judgment, and contextual understanding.

IDC data backs this up. By 2029, IDC expects 30% of all contractual engagements with service providers to be outcome-based, and 30% of IT services to be delivered as modular, platform-enabled products.

What is a SPAAP and why it matters

That shift is creating a new asset class. IDC calls it the Service Provider Agentic AI Platform, or SPAAP: a proprietary platform built, operated, and maintained by firms whose primary business is services, not software. SPAAPs are the AI-native expression of the Services as a Product model, and they are quickly becoming the strategic core of how a modern services firm scales.

These platforms serve two purposes, often simultaneously. They can function as internal delivery platforms that industrialize how a service provider designs and delivers services at scale. They can also be client-facing platforms that complement or replace business and technical processes inside the client environment, persisting after the engagement ends.

The industry is bifurcating and the gap is widening fast

The services industry is splitting into two camps. Winners are rebuilding their business models around client outcomes. Everyone else is defending legacy structures.

Winners run productized portfolios aligned to industries, domains, and buyer personas. They invest in proprietary, modular platforms with orchestration, governance, observability, and interoperability. They build smaller, higher-value teams of humans and agents. They price on outcomes, with clear IP and data ownership and shared risk structures. They earn trust by being transparent and auditable.

The losing profile looks different: broad menus of generic capabilities, fragmented delivery tooling, pyramid talent models, and time-and-materials pricing. Black-box solutions. Deflected accountability. The gap between the two groups is widening and fast.

Two new competitor types are entering the arena

Service providers face two distinct new categories of competitor.

AI-native firms like Harvey, Sierra AI, Hyperscience, and others promise 60% to 80% automation of traditional SOW work with outcome-based pricing. They are not trying to replicate the full services model. They disintermediate specific high-value workflows, often the ones that previously went to BPO firms and lower-tier SIs.

Platform players like AWS, Microsoft, Google, SAP, ServiceNow, Salesforce, Palantir are moving differently. They are bundling software, tokens, and forward-deployed engineers into outcome-priced offers. The contract is not just price-competed. It is structurally redesigned around the product.

The strategic battleground is no longer service execution. It is the workflow and outcome layer and whoever owns that layer owns the customer relationship.

Where established service providers have a structural advantage

It is easy to assume that hyperscalers, ISVs, and AI-native firms will simply absorb the services market. They will not. Service providers hold a real structural advantage across three layers of the agentic stack: build and deploy, govern and operate, and orchestrate.

Portability is the most visible piece. No enterprise wants lock-in to a single foundation model, a single hyperscaler, or a single agent framework. Buyers want freedom to swap models as they improve, move workloads as economics shift, and integrate agents across platforms they already own. Service providers are the only vendor category whose business model rewards staying open on those choices while remaining accountable for the outcome.

Governance is the more durable piece. Agentic delivery raises the stakes on identity, observability, auditability, and risk controls. Enterprises need explainable behavior, evidence trails for regulators, and clear human accountability when an agent acts autonomously. Service providers sit closest to the client’s process, the people in the loop, and the contractual liability for the outcome, which is exactly where agentic governance has to hold. Governance declared in a product spec and governance operationalized inside a client environment are two different things.

Orchestration is where the advantage compounds. Enterprise work spans ERP, CRM, ITSM, data platforms, custom applications, and cloud workloads. Agentic delivery has to coordinate across all of them, often with agents built on different frameworks and run by different teams. Cross-system, cross-vendor integration is what service providers do for a living. Extending that into multi-agent orchestration, A2A and MCP interoperability, and the workflow layer that ties internal delivery agents to client-side agents is a natural extension, not a pivot.

Underneath all three layers sits the differentiator hyperscalers and horizontal ISVs find hardest to replicate: industry depth. Workflows, regulations, KPIs, and the definition of a good business outcome differ sharply across banking, healthcare, manufacturing, retail, and the public sector. Service providers have spent decades embedding that context into delivery teams. They are now encoding it into agentic platforms through vertical playbooks, domain ontologies, and persona-targeted agent suites. The substrate can be built quickly. The industry context is what turns agent activity into measurable business outcomes.

Three priorities for services leaders

Three moves should be on every services leader’s agenda right now.

Productize delivery. Treat your agentic platform as a product, not an internal accelerator. Give it a roadmap, dedicated engineering, security hardening, transparent pricing, and clear IP and data ownership terms. Buyers are already asking whether providers will maintain proprietary platforms the way a software vendor would. Adoption increases when the answer is yes.

Modernize the commercial model. Outcome-based, fixed-fee, and consumption pricing should sit alongside time and materials as first-class options. Build the instrumentation, KPIs, and reporting that make outcomes credible to buyers. Reinvest cost savings from automation into the next round of platform R&D.

Differentiate beyond the core platform. As agentic tooling commoditizes, the edge moves to vertical playbooks, ISV-specific accelerators, domain packs, and persona-targeted agent suites. Business context, workflow logic, and compliance depth are encoded most deeply here, and general-purpose platforms cannot easily follow.

Agentic AI is rewriting the economics, the contract, and the control point of the services industry. The providers that win the next decade will productize delivery through proprietary agentic platforms, treat governance and interoperability as differentiators, and price on client outcomes.

For the platforms, archetypes, and strategic moves shaping that shift, explore IDC’s new research domain: Service Provider Agentic AI Delivery Models and Platforms.

Dina Capelle

Dina Capelle - Senior Research Analyst, Service Provider Agentic AI Platforms

Analyst Profile
Dina Capelle is a Senior Research Analyst on IDC’s Worldwide Services team and leads the Service Provider Agentic AI Delivery Models and Platforms program. Her research tracks the global market for agentic AI platforms built by IT and business services…

The EMEA IT market continues to grow in 2026. But the real story is not growth alone. It is how that growth is evolving under pressure. 

In our latest State of the Market webinar, IDC analysts Andrea Siviero, Stephen Minton, Ewa Zborowska and Lapo Fioretti explored how AI acceleration, geopolitical developments and rising resilience priorities are reshaping IT spending across the region. 

Here are five key takeaways that define where the EMEA IT market is heading next. 

1. IT spending in EMEA is growing, but becoming more selective 

IT spending across EMEA remains on a growth path, supported by strong momentum in software and infrastructure. At the same time, the market is becoming more selective. Devices are expected to decline in 2026, while software, infrastructure and IT services continue to benefit from changing enterprise priorities and AI-related demand. 

This reflects a broader shift in how organizations are allocating budgets. Growth is still there, but investment decisions are being made with more scrutiny. Geopolitical pressure, regulation and economic uncertainty are no longer background factors. They are directly shaping where technology spend goes and which initiatives get prioritized. 

2. AI is accelerating and reshaping IT spending across EMEA 

AI is now one of the clearest growth engines in the market. In EMEA, AI spending is expected to reach $319 billion in 2026, growing 19.2% year over year and expanding more than three times faster than total IT spending. 

But the significance of AI is not only its growth rate. It is how deeply AI is starting to influence budget allocation, vendor strategies and enterprise priorities. Organizations are no longer asking whether AI matters. They are asking where it creates measurable value and how quickly it can be embedded into the business. 

3. The shift from AI pilots to AI at scale is underway, although slow with AI Value blocked by Execution, not Interest 

The AI conversation in EMEA is moving from experimentation to execution. Organizations are becoming less focused on launching new pilots and more focused on improving, scaling and operationalizing the AI initiatives they already have in place. 

This is where the market becomes more complex. Nearly 48% of organizations are prioritizing investment in customized AI agents to automate business processes. But scaling AI requires more than enthusiasm or access to tools. It depends on infrastructure, data readiness, governance and skills. The bottleneck is no longer AI ambition. It is execution capability. 

4. AI Focus Still High on Efficiency, with Rising Expectations for Innovation and Growth 

For many organizations, the first wave of AI value is still rooted in efficiency. AI is being used to automate workflows, improve productivity and reduce operational friction. 

But the opportunity is expanding. 93% of organizations now see AI as a source of new revenue, not just efficiency gains. That shift matters because it moves AI from a cost-saving discussion into a growth discussion. The next phase will be defined by organizations that can turn AI into new products, services, business models and customer value. 

5. Resilience, governance and AI sovereignty are shaping IT strategy 

Resilience is becoming a central filter for technology investment in EMEA. It is now the number two business priority for CEOs in the region, second only to growth. 

That has major implications for AI. As organizations scale AI, they need stronger governance, clearer data control, better infrastructure resilience and trusted deployment models. AI sovereignty is also moving higher on the agenda, especially as organizations consider where AI systems are built, hosted, governed and operated. 

The message from the webinar was clear: AI scale is not just a technology challenge. It is a trust, governance and resilience challenge. 

What this means for technology providers in EMEA 

The EMEA IT market is entering a more demanding phase. Growth opportunities remain strong, but they are increasingly tied to execution readiness. 

For technology providers, this means helping customers move from AI experimentation to AI at scale. It means supporting data, infrastructure and governance readiness. And it means positioning AI not only as an innovation investment, but also as a resilience investment. 

In 2026, competitive advantage will come from helping organizations turn ambition into operational impact. 

Watch the webinar on demand 

If you want to go beyond the headlines, the full webcast offers a deeper dive into the data, regional dynamics and real-world examples discussed by our analysts. 

You will get a clearer view of where growth is actually materializing, how AI maturity is evolving across EMEA, and what is separating organizations that are scaling successfully from those that are not. 

Watch the recording here. 

And if you would like to explore what these trends mean specifically for your business, our experts are always happy to continue the conversation. Simply reach out via the contact form. 

Stephen Minton - Group Vice President, Data & Analytics - IDC

Analyst Profile
Stephen Minton is a group vice president with the IDC Data & Analytics group, focusing on ICT spending and macroeconomics. Mr. Minton is responsible for Worldwide ICT Spending programs, including the Worldwide Black Book, Worldwide 3rd Platform Spending Guides, and Worldwide Telecom Services Tracker. Mr. Minton's research expertise includes global ICT and economic analysis, and he tracks market data across hardware, software, services, telecom and emerging technologies. He is the author of papers that focus on the economic impact of IT, and is a regular speaker on the subject of IT spending. In 2002 he addressed the United Nations in New York, speaking to UN ambassadors on the subject of the Information Society. Mr. Minton previously worked with Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), before joining IDC in 1998. Originally from Hartlepool in the North of England, he graduated from the University of Salford in 1995. He has also worked in the field of consumer market research with Millward Brown International.

Andrea Siviero - Senior Research Director, MacroTech, Digital Business, and Future of Work - IDC

Analyst Profile
Andrea Siviero leads IDC's European Digital Business and Future of Work Research group. The group provides market research insights to foster a purposeful and fair adoption of technologies supporting digital societies, businesses and workforce and empower tech providers in strategic decision making, planning and go-to-market activities. Siviero also co-leads the IDC Worldwide MacroTech Research program, focused on the intertwined connection between the Economical and Digital worlds - analyzing the impact key MacroEconomic factors have on the digital landscape and viceversa, how technologies are impacting economies around the world.

Ewa Zborowska - Research Director, AI, Europe - IDC

Analyst Profile
Ewa Zborowska is an experienced technology professional with 25 years of expertise in the European IT industry. Since 2003, she has been a member of the IDC team, based in Warsaw, researching IT services markets. In 2018, she joined the European team with a specific emphasis on cloud and AI. Ewa is currently the lead analyst for IDC’s European Artificial Intelligence Innovations and Strategies CIS.

Lapo Fioretti - Senior Research Analyst - IDC

Analyst Profile
Lapo Fioretti is a Senior Research analyst in IDC Digital Business Research Group, leading the European Emerging Technologies Strategies research. In his role, he advises ICT players on how European organizations leverage new technologies to create business value and achieve growth and analyzes the development and impact of emerging trends on the markets. Fioretti also co-leads the IDC Worldwide MacroTech Research program, focused on the intertwined connection between the Economical and Digital worlds - analyzing the impact key MacroEconomic factors have on the digital landscape and viceversa, how technologies are impacting economies around the world.

Salesforce在今年的开发者大会TDX上，正式发布了名为Headless 360的新举措，旨在使得Salesforce平台上的所有功能，均可通过API（应用程序接口）、MCP（模型上下文协议）服务器或CLI（命令行界面）命令的形式对外暴露，从而支持编程智能体或面向特定客户需求的自定义智能体进行调用。

Salesforce的这一动作，并不仅仅是一次产品能力开放，更反映出企业软件正在发生一个根本性变化：应用的核心对象，正在从“人”转向“AI”。当越来越多系统开始以开放接口、连接器以及Agent相关协议而非UI作为主要交互方式时，企业软件的竞争逻辑、产品形态与商业模式，也正在被重新定义。

从应用到Agent，竞争格局与商业模式重塑

企业软件市场正经历一场深刻变革。AI Agent不仅是技术升级，更是市场竞争、商业模式和生态体系的全面重置。IDC最新调研显示，2026年全球72%的企业已将AI Agent投入生产，51.6%已将Agent嵌入核心业务流程。Agent正成为企业软件的“新入口”，未来三年内，Agent接口将超过一半，传统接口将迅速降低接近至零。

传统软件厂商以功能和UI为核心竞争力，如今则被“结果导向、自动执行”的Agent所取代。Agent能够跨系统自动编排任务，推动业务流程从“人操作”转向“意图驱动、自动完成”。IDC预测，到2027年，Agent自动化将增强40%以上的企业应用能力，重塑三分之一的业务流程和工作流。

IDC的核心判断是：Agent并不是一次功能升级，而是在重构企业应用的形态。

应用正在“退居后台”：Agent成为新的执行层

在传统模式下，企业应用的价值建立在“界面+流程”之上。用户进入系统、触发操作、完成任务，软件围绕“人如何使用系统”来设计。

但Agent改变了这个前提。

它可以基于上下文理解需求、跨系统调用能力，并直接完成任务。在越来越多场景中，用户不再需要进入某一个具体系统，任务已经在后台被执行。

这意味着一个关键变化：应用不再是工作的入口，Agent才是。

一旦入口发生变化，应用的角色也随之改变——从“交互界面”转向“能力提供者”，从前台走向后台。

应用边界开始消失：竞争从产品走向生态

当Agent可以跨系统完成任务时，原本清晰的应用边界开始变得模糊。

同一个业务流程，可能同时调用CRM、ERP和供应链系统；而对用户来说，这一切被封装在一次“请求”之中。应用不再以单独系统的形式被感知，而是作为能力被调用。

关键影响在于：竞争逻辑正在发生改变——除了“谁的功能更强”，还需要考虑“谁更容易被调用和整合”。

这也是为什么当前市场中，开放接口、连接器以及Agent相关协议（如MCP、A2A）迅速升温。厂商不仅仅是构建产品，而需要争夺“进入Agent调用链”的位置。

如果无法进入这个链条，即使功能完整，也可能被绕过，逐渐边缘化。

定价体系被重写：从“使用权”到“结果价值”

相比产品形态的变化，更深远的影响正在商业模式层面显现。

过去几十年，企业软件的定价建立在“使用权”之上——按用户数、按模块、按许可收费。但在Agent模式下，这种逻辑开始失效。

一个Agent可以替代多个用户执行任务，自动化程度越高，企业获得的价值越大，但座席数量反而可能下降。

这带来一个根本性问题：当“使用量”不再等于“价值”，软件应该如何收费？

目前市场已经出现一些过渡模式，例如在座席基础上叠加Agent调用量或自动化流程计费，形成混合定价结构。

但更关键的变化在于：

软件行业正在从“为工具付费”，转向“为结果付费”。

而谁能够定义“结果”，并将其转化为可计量、可收费的单位，谁就有机会在这一轮变革中掌握价值分配权。Agent定价需简化，避免复杂结构成为创新和试点的障碍。

IDC观察：三条正在形成的主线

从当前市场演进来看，这一轮变化并不是单点突破，而是沿着几条清晰的主线展开。

首先，企业软件正在从“工具导向”走向“结果导向”。软件不再只是支持人完成工作，而是直接交付结果。

其次，集成逻辑正在从系统层上移到Agent层。过去复杂的系统集成，正在被Agent编排所替代。

更重要的是，竞争的核心正在从功能能力转向价值捕获能力。厂商之间的差距，不再只体现在“能做什么”，而在于“如何从结果中获得收入”。

谁会受益，谁面临风险？

在这一过程中，市场分化已经开始出现。

具备平台能力和生态控制力的厂商，更容易成为Agent的调度中心，从而掌握流量与价值入口。而那些依赖单点功能、定价僵化或生态封闭的厂商，则面临利润下滑和客户流失，被边缘化的风险——即使产品本身依然存在，Agent会绕过其产品，其不再处于用户路径之中。

换句话说，未来的竞争不只是“有没有Agent”，而是“是否在Agent体系中占据关键位置”。

结语：这不是一次技术升级，而是一次价值重构

Agent的快速普及，表面上看是AI能力在企业软件中的延伸，但其更深层的影响在于，它正在改变应用的形态、重塑竞争边界，并重新定义价值的获取方式。

这不是一次简单的技术升级，而是一场围绕“执行权”和“价值权”的重构。

对于软件厂商而言，真正的挑战不在于是否引入Agent，而在于——在一个由Agent主导的体系中，自己的产品究竟处于什么位置。Agent不仅是自动化工具，更是业务流程、行业应用和迁移的“新软件”，厂商可通过Agent快速扩展市场份额和收入。

与此同时，企业用户也需要重新评估自身的应用架构、自动化路径以及供应商选择策略，为Agent驱动流程、数据准备和跨应用编排做好组织准备，以确保在这一轮变革中持续获得业务价值与竞争优势。

IDC更多相关研究

如果您希望进一步了解Agent在企业软件中的落地路径、市场演进趋势或对自身业务的具体影响，欢迎与IDC分析师团队联系。IDC将基于持续的市场跟踪与研究，提供更具针对性的洞察与建议，支持企业与厂商在这一轮变革中做出更有前瞻性的决策。

请点击此处与我们联系。

Lizzie Li

Lizzie Li - Associate Research Director

Analyst Profile
Lizzie Li is Associate Research Director of IDC China's Enterprise System and Software Research that focuses on research and analysis of the China Datacenter, Cloud Computing, and IT infrastructure markets. She also provides intelligence and consulting services in customized projects for…

日本のテクノロジー市場で事業展開するベンダーやサービスプロバイダーにとって、AIインフラが成長するかどうかは既に決着した問題です。問題は、AI向けサーバーやストレージで構成される国内AIインフラ市場が1兆円の壁を超えようとする中で、どれだけ速く、どのような形で、そして誰がその市場を獲得できるかということです。

IDCの最新データと予測は、市場成長について明確な答えを示しています。以下は、このエコシステムのすべてのベンダーが理解すべき戦略的視点です。

1兆円への道筋：市場機会を定義する3つのマイルストーン

IDCは、今後5年間で国内AIインフラ市場が明確かつ力強い成長軌道を描くと予測しています。特に注目すべきマイルストーンは3つあります。

これらは楽観的な予測ではありません。政府の政策、エンタープライズのデジタル化への圧力、ハイパースケーラーのコミットメント、そしてAIの日本経済への不可逆的な統合という構造的な力に裏づけられており、その流れが反転する兆候はありません。

国内AIインフラの現在地：この成長を可能にする土台

これから起きることの規模を理解するには、日本のAIインフラ市場がいかに速く動いてきたかを把握する必要があります。2025年、国内市場は6,700億円に達しました。アクセラレーター搭載サーバーに限れば、2023年から2025年の3年間のCAGRは200%に迫り、世界平均を大きく上回っています。

この成長は偶然ではありません。政府の経済安全保障政策と国内資本の動員が意図的に重なり合った結果です。政府の技術的自立を推進するクラウド関連政策の下、国内資本のサービスプロバイダーや通信キャリアが、日本市場では稀に見るスピードで大規模なAIインフラ整備に乗り出しました。

物理的な変化も目覚ましいものがあります。かつての2U GPUサーバーから、ラックスケールシステムや水冷を前提とした複数ラック構成が標準的になり、データセンター全体がAIワークロードを中心に設計される時代へ向かっています。2025年の6,700億円規模の市場はこの土台の上に成り立っており、2030年の1兆円市場はその次に来るものの上に築かれます。

ベンダーが理解すべき市場の構造的ダイナミクス

2025年の国内AIインフラ市場は、ハイパースケーラーを含むサービスプロバイダーに大きく集中しており、市場支出全体の90.6%を占めています。この数字には、2030年に向けた競争環境を形成する3つのダイナミクスがあります。

・拡大を続けるハイパースケーラー： 投資シェアは2022年の39.8%から2025年には58.9%に急増し、3年間で19ポイントの上昇となりました。ハイパースケーラーのプラットフォームとロードマップへの対応は、この市場における存在感を維持するための前提条件であり続けます。

・戦略的重要性を持つ国内サービスプロバイダー： 政策支援を受けた国内サービスプロバイダーや通信キャリアを含むその他のサービスプロバイダーは、ハイパースケーラーの急拡大にもかかわらず、2025年のシェアを31.6%と維持し、2022年の31.8%からほぼ横ばいです。このセグメントは、純粋な価格競争よりもローカルな信頼、法規制対応、継続的なパートナーシップを重視する、強靭な顧客基盤です。

・次の成長フロンティアとなるエンタープライズの直接投資：現在9.4%という市場シェアながら、エンタープライズのAIインフラ直接投資は2022年比で絶対額が倍以上に拡大しており、成長の萌芽は確実に生まれています。現時点では大多数のエンタープライズが生成AIサービスやSaaSを通じてAIを利用していますが、AIへの野心が深まり、消費から保有へと移行するにつれて直接投資は加速します。今エンタープライズとの関係を構築するベンダーが、この波を最も有利な立場で捉えられます。

セミソブリンAIモデル：日本を特徴づける戦略的アーキテクチャ

2026年4月、マイクロソフトは2026年から2029年にかけて日本へ約1.6兆円を投資する計画を発表しました。これと合わせて、国内パートナー2社が国内で運用するAIインフラをAzureから利用可能にする構想が示されました。国内サービスプロバイダーの保有するAIインフラが、グローバルなハイパースケーラーのサービスレイヤーに接続されます。

IDCはこの構造を「セミソブリンAI」と捉えており、日本のAIインフラ戦略の特徴的なモデルとして急速に確立されつつあります。外国資本のハイパースケーラーへの完全依存でもなく、完全独立の国内AIインフラという過大なコストを強いるものでもない、現実的かつ政治的にも持続可能な折衷案です。

ベンダーにとって、このモデルは制約ではなく構造的な機会です。セミソブリンAIは、インフラ設計、システムインテグレーション、マネージドサービス、コンプライアンス対応、そして日本固有のAIプラットフォーム開発において、豊かで拡大し続ける市場を生み出します。このモデルを深く理解し、その中に意欲的に自社を位置づけるベンダーやインテグレーターが、2030年以降の日本AIインフラ市場の競争環境を定義することになります。

ベンダーへの示唆：動くなら今

国内AIインフラの基盤を築いた政策主導のアプローチは、需要主導の成長段階へと移行しています。もはや、適切なAIインフラが存在するかどうかは中心的な質問にはなりません。問うべきは「誰がエンタープライズのAI活用を、測定可能なビジネス価値を生む形へスケールさせるのか」です。この市場で競争するベンダーには、3つの行動指針が求められます。

• エンタープライズのエンゲージメントの加速：現在9.4%というエンタープライズのシェアが、明日の成長ストーリーになります。エンタープライズとの関係構築、日本特有のユースケース開発、ROI実証フレームワークに投資するベンダーが、この10年で最大の需要の波に乗る準備を整えられます。

• セミソブリンAIモデルへの適合： 国内のAIインフラ所有者、ハイパースケーラーのサービスレイヤー、政府の政策フレームワークの相互作用を理解することは、持っていたほうが良い背景知識ではありません。この市場で勝つための戦略地図です。

• 規模だけではない市場理解： 国内市場は持続的な地域へのコミットメント、深い技術的専門性に加え、日本の商習慣にも理解を示すベンダーを評価します。1兆円のチャンスは単なる取引量だけでは捉えられません。

ベンダーシェアや需要構造の詳細はIDC Worldwide Quarterly AI Infrastructure Trackerで継続的に分析しています。

関連する調査やご相談について

より詳細なインサイトや市場動向については、当社アナリストへお気軽にご相談ください。

Shinya Kato - Senior Research Manager, Enterprise Infrastructure, Data & Analytics, - IDC Japan

Analyst Profile
Shinya Kato is a Senior Research Manager at IDC Japan and is responsible for the data analysis and forecasting team of Japan enterprise infrastructure market. He analyzes the impact of product technology, service offerings, and marketing strategies on enterprise infrastructure market and provides market forecasts, focusing on the domestic enterprise storage systems market. Through understanding technology adoption trends, he also provides insight into emerging devices such as flash, accelerators, and quantum computing. In addition to researching the HPC and AI infrastructure markets, he is also investigating new consumption models such as Hardware-as-a-Service, to help stimulate the market. Prior to joining IDC, he spent more than 10 years at Silicon Graphics, which was later acquired by HPE, where he held various domestic positions in sales, marketing, and business development. He has covered a wide range of businesses, from infrastructure hardware and container-based data center facilities to digital asset management, industrial virtual reality, and software for media & entertainment. He also served as a product manager for enterprise internet security software and appliances at the emerging vendor. He holds a Bachelor of Economics degree from Rikkyo University.

2025年中国企业级MaaS市场经历了从试点到规模化应用的关键转折。无论是Token调用量还是实际营收，各个统计口径都呈现出倍数级的增长，同时Token消耗的快速攀升正在重新定义企业使用人工智能的方式。然而，在这一轮高速增长的背后，市场仍然面临性能、安全合规、回答质量等多重实际约束。IDC认为，MaaS厂商的竞争焦点正在从过去单纯的价格比拼，转向“价格、性能与工具链支持”的综合能力竞争。

市场总体规模：调用量增长16倍，但需理性看待基数效应

2024年，中国企业级MaaS市场按调用量统计的规模仅为114万亿Tokens，而到2025年，这一数字跃升至1944万亿Tokens，同比增长约16倍。在营收口径下，2025年中国公有云MaaS市场的规模达到30.7亿元人民币。与此同时，面向传统政企客户的大模型私有化部署市场也保持活跃，尤其在政务、金融、能源等领域形成了独立的采购与交付体系。

IDC预计2026年全年Token消耗量约为40,000万亿次，较2025年进一步增长约20倍。这一加速增长的主要驱动因素，是多模态大模型的逐步成熟以及Agent类应用的规模化落地。换句话说，市场正在从“文本生成”向“多模态理解与自动执行”扩展，每一次交互所消耗的Token量级也相应大幅提升。

Token消耗快速增长，但不同场景之间差异巨大

Token消耗的整体走势非常明确：2025年1月全市场日均消耗约为1.6万亿Tokens，到2025年12月底，这一数字已经攀升至9.6万亿Tokens。随着多模态大模型的进一步成熟，日均Token消耗的增长曲线将会变得更为陡峭。

不过，不同应用场景之间的Token消耗量级存在巨大差异，这一点往往被笼统的市场总量数字所掩盖。例如，一家投资机构在合同摘要场景中，一次处理几十个合同文档，单次消耗的Tokens可达200万。一家教育机构在其在线培训场景中，高峰使用期日均消耗高达2000亿Tokens。而使用多模态产品生成一个视频，也会消耗上千万Tokens。这些差异意味着，企业在评估MaaS服务时，不能只看单位Token的报价，还必须结合自身场景的实际消耗特征来判断总成本。

从应用场景的分布来看，当前公有云上MaaS的主要应用群体集中在泛互联网行业（游戏、娱乐、教育）、智能办公赛道、智能硬件赛道（智能汽车、手机、智能眼镜）以及大消费赛道。主要的应用场景包括角色扮演、短剧生成、市场营销、搜索、数据处理、数据分析和文档处理。而在传统政企的私有化部署项目中，应用场景相对收敛，主要集中在智能办公、数据处理与分析、市场营销等几个方向。

竞争格局：公有云头部集中，私有化部署市场更为分散

在公有云MaaS市场，按调用量计算，2025年火山引擎占据了接近一半的份额，其次是阿里云、百度智能云、硅基流动以及移动云。其他值得关注的厂商还包括腾讯云、商汤科技、华为云、天翼云等。

如果按营收口径来看，火山引擎仍然占据40%以上的市场份额，阿里云、百度智能云、智谱以及移动云位列前五。不同厂商在单位Token定价、折扣策略以及高价值场景的占比上存在显著差异。例如，某些厂商可能在低单价、高调用量的场景中占优，而另一些厂商则在高单价、专业场景中获得了更高的营收贡献。

在私有化部署市场上，格局则完全不同。传统政企客户出于数据安全、合规可控等考虑，仍然将私有化部署作为第一选择，也因此培育了众多的大模型平台私有化厂商。2025年IDC追踪到的头部厂商包括百度智能云、商汤科技、电信AI、中关村科金、创新奇智、星环科技以及中国电子云。相比公有云市场，私有化部署市场的集中度更低，这与政企采购的区域性、行业性特征有直接关系。

企业落地大模型时，性能、合规与质量优先于成本

高速增长的数字背后，企业在大模型落地过程中仍然面临一系列现实挑战。根据IDC的调研数据，影响大模型落地的Top5因素依次是：模型性能、安全合规要求、回答质量、在AI平台可用性以及成本效益。其中，性能指的是企业部署上线后的稳定性、并发数和可靠性；安全合规既要求模型在中国市场可以合规使用，也要求模型生成的内容本身合规；回答质量则直接决定了模型能否被大规模上线应用。

值得注意的是，成本效益在当前阶段排在第五位，并非企业最优先考虑的障碍。这一结果在一定程度上说明，企业当前更关注“模型是否能用、是否安全、是否稳定”，在这些前提条件满足之后，才会进入精细化的成本比较。然而，原文也明确提示了一种中长期风险：随着大模型应用场景的持续渗透，以及算力紧缺状况的延续，大模型的投资预算终将成为关键挑战。换句话说，成本问题目前还没有爆发，但它迟早会来。

MaaS市场的竞争要素正在发生结构性的变化

随着Token经济的兴起和市场参与者的迅速增加，MaaS市场的竞争规则也在发生变化。IDC认为，未来制胜的核心要素将集中在三个方面：价格与成本优化、性能、以及工具链与应用开发的支持。

在价格与成本方面，企业Token的日均消耗正在快速增长，尤其是各类Agent类产品的出现，进一步放大了Token的使用规模。随着规模化智能的到来，厂商需要关注的不是单纯降低单位Token的价格，而是帮助用户降低整体成本，同时确保输出的是高质量、有效用的Tokens。

在性能方面，大量行业场景对并发数和吞吐量有很高要求，与此同时算力紧缺的现状短期内难以根本缓解。能够通过底层算力优化来提升模型训练和推理效率的厂商，将在用户选型中获得明显的优势。

在工具链与应用开发支持方面，过去两年的MaaS市场中，买方选型的首要因素几乎都是价格，而且由于大模型迭代速度太快，买方通常选择直接调用大模型API，而不进行二次调优。但未来，企业将有更多垂直场景落地，这些场景离不开智能体的开发。因此，MaaS平台在工具链（如调试、评测、智能体编排）上的完备性，在用户选型中的重要性将不断提高。

展望：2026年预计20倍Token增长，但需注意情景依赖

基于现有数据和趋势，IDC对MaaS市场给出了明确的预测：2026年中国MaaS市场的Token消耗量将达到约40,000万亿次，按营收规模计算将达到约186亿元人民币。2024年至2030年的年复合增长率约为1154.9%，但这一数字是基于高增长情景得出的。

需要特别提示的是，如此高的复合增长率高度依赖于一系列前提条件：多模态模型的持续成熟、Agent类应用的大规模落地、算力供给不出现严重瓶颈，以及合规政策保持稳定。上述任何一个条件发生变化，实际增速都可能显著低于高增长情景。对于行业参与者和企业买方而言，在看到巨大市场机遇的同时，也有必要对风险保持清醒的认知。

对厂商与买方的建议

基于上述分析和IDC的调研数据，我们可以对MaaS厂商和企业买方分别提出几点建议。

对于MaaS厂商而言，在价格竞争的同时，应当优先解决高并发场景下的性能稳定性和合规推理能力。工具链能力（调试、评测、智能体编排）正在成为差异化竞争的关键，不可忽视。此外，可以考虑在垂直场景（如合同处理、视频生成、教育陪练）中建立深度优化能力，而不是在所有场景中采取同质化的竞争策略。

对于企业买方而言，在当前阶段应当优先验证模型的回答质量、安全合规性和并发稳定性，成本可以放在次优级的位置上。在选择MaaS厂商时，建议关注其工具链的成熟度，而不仅仅是API的单次调用价格。从长远来看，建议尽早建立Token成本的评估机制，避免业务规模扩张后出现成本失控的局面。

关于数据：本文所有数据和图表均来自IDC《中国AI软件市场半年度追踪，2025H2》。调用量口径统计企业通过公有云MaaS平台调用大模型API产生的Token数量；营收口径统计企业实际支付的公有云MaaS服务费用（不含私有化部署）；私有化部署市场统计面向政企客户的大模型平台软件及相关授权收入。

进一步交流

MaaS市场的爆发才刚刚开始，IDC将持续追踪这一市场的格局变化与技术演进。如需获取完整报告、订阅后续研究，或针对特定厂商与行业进行定制化分析，欢迎与IDC中国人工智能研究团队联系。

请点击此处与我们联系。

Yanxia Lu

Yanxia Lu - Research Director

Analyst Profile
  Yanxia Lu is a research director, focusing on big data and artificial intelligence (AI). Her responsibilities include big data information management platform, and big data analytics and applications. She is also involved in research on AI technology and enterprise…

The foundational question for any vendor or service provider operating in Japan’s technology market today is no longer whether AI infrastructure will grow. That is settled. The question is how fast, in what form, and most importantly who will capture the value as Japan’s AI infrastructure market, consisting of servers and storage for AI, approaches and surpasses the ¥1 trillion threshold.

IDC’s latest data and forecasts provide a clear-eyed answer. What follows is the strategic view every vendor in this ecosystem needs to understand.

The road to ¥1 trillion: Three milestones that define the opportunity

IDC projects Japan’s AI infrastructure market will follow a clear and compelling trajectory over the next five years. Three milestones stand out:

These are not optimistic projections. They are grounded in structural forces – government policy, enterprise digitalization pressure, hyperscaler commitments, and the irreversible integration of AI into Japan’s economic fabric – that show no signs of reversing.

Where we are today: The foundation that makes this possible

To appreciate the scale of what lies ahead, it helps to understand how quickly Japan’s AI infrastructure market has already moved. In 2025, the domestic market reached ¥670 billion. For accelerator-equipped servers alone, the three-year CAGR from 2023 to 2025 approached 200%, significantly outpacing the global average.

This growth was not accidental. It was driven by a deliberate convergence of government economic security policy and domestic capital mobilization. Under cloud-related policy frameworks designed to advance Japan’s technological sovereignty, domestically capitalized service providers and telecommunications carriers launched large-scale AI infrastructure buildouts at a pace rarely seen in the Japanese market.

Physically, the transformation is equally striking. Rack-scale systems and multi-rack liquid-cooled configurations are becoming the new standard. What was once a 2U GPU server is evolving into an infrastructure architecture where entire data centers are purpose-designed around AI workloads. The ¥670 billion market of 2025 is built on this foundation, and the ¥1 trillion market of 2030 will be built on what comes next.

The structural dynamics vendors must understand

Japan’s AI infrastructure market in 2025 is heavily concentrated in service providers, who accounted for 90.6% of total market spend. With that figure, three dynamics will shape the competitive landscape through 2030:

  • Hyperscalers will continue to expand. Their investment share surged from 39.8% in 2022 to 58.9% in 2025, a 19-point gain in three years. Alignment with hyperscaler platforms and roadmaps will remain a prerequisite for relevance in this market.
  • Domestic service providers will remain strategically critical. Other service providers including policy-backed Japanese service providers and telcos held 31.6% share in 2025, essentially unchanged from 31.8% in 2022 despite the hyperscaler surge. This is a resilient customer segment that values local trust, regulatory compliance, and sustained partnership over pure price competition.
  • Enterprise direct investment is the next growth frontier. At 9.4% of the market today, enterprise direct AI infrastructure investment has more than doubled in absolute terms since 2022, yet it remains nascent. Most large enterprises currently consume AI through generative AI services and SaaS platforms. As enterprises deepen their AI ambitions and move from consumption to ownership, direct infrastructure investment will accelerate. Vendors who build enterprise relationships now will be best positioned to capture this wave.

The semi-sovereign AI model: Japan’s defining strategic architecture

In April 2026, Microsoft announced plans to invest approximately ¥1.6 trillion in Japan between 2026 and 2029. Alongside this commitment came a plan to make AI infrastructure operated domestically by two partner companies available through Microsoft Azure, domestically built and owned infrastructure, connected to a global hyperscaler’s service layer.

This is what IDC describes as “Semi-Sovereign AI” and it is rapidly emerging as the defining model for AI infrastructure strategy in Japan. It represents a pragmatic and politically viable middle path: neither complete dependency on foreign hyperscalers, nor the prohibitive cost of fully independent domestic AI capability.

For vendors, this model is not a constraint. It is a structural opportunity. Semi-Sovereign AI creates a rich and expanding set of market roles in infrastructure design, systems integration, managed services, compliance, and the development of Japan-specific AI platforms. The vendors and integrators who understand this model deeply, and position themselves within it deliberately, will define the competitive landscape of Japan’s AI infrastructure market through 2030 and beyond.

What this means for vendors: Act now, not later

The policy-driven supply wave that built Japan’s AI infrastructure base is transitioning into a demand-driven growth phase. The central question is no longer whether the infrastructure exists, it does. The question is who helps enterprises put it to work, at scale, in ways that generate measurable business value. Three imperatives stand out for vendors competing in this market:

  • Accelerate enterprise engagement. The 9.4% enterprise share of today is the growth story of tomorrow. Vendors who invest in enterprise relationships, Japan-specific use cases, and ROI demonstration frameworks now will be positioned to ride the most significant demand wave of the decade.
  • Align with the Semi-Sovereign AI model. Understanding the interplay between domestic infrastructure owners, hyperscaler service layers, and government policy frameworks is not optional background knowledge. It is the strategic map for winning in this market.
  • Build for depth, not just scale. Japan’s market rewards vendors who demonstrate sustained local commitment, deep technical expertise, and an understanding of Japanese enterprise culture. The ¥1 trillion opportunity will not be captured by volume alone.

Ongoing vendor share and demand analysis is available via the IDC Worldwide Quarterly AI Infrastructure Tracker. For more detailed insights and market trends, please contact our analysts by completing this form IDC | Identifying Market Opportunities – Contact Us.

Shinya Kato - Senior Research Manager, Enterprise Infrastructure, Data & Analytics, - IDC Japan

Analyst Profile
Shinya Kato is a Senior Research Manager at IDC Japan and is responsible for the data analysis and forecasting team of Japan enterprise infrastructure market. He analyzes the impact of product technology, service offerings, and marketing strategies on enterprise infrastructure market and provides market forecasts, focusing on the domestic enterprise storage systems market. Through understanding technology adoption trends, he also provides insight into emerging devices such as flash, accelerators, and quantum computing. In addition to researching the HPC and AI infrastructure markets, he is also investigating new consumption models such as Hardware-as-a-Service, to help stimulate the market. Prior to joining IDC, he spent more than 10 years at Silicon Graphics, which was later acquired by HPE, where he held various domestic positions in sales, marketing, and business development. He has covered a wide range of businesses, from infrastructure hardware and container-based data center facilities to digital asset management, industrial virtual reality, and software for media & entertainment. He also served as a product manager for enterprise internet security software and appliances at the emerging vendor. He holds a Bachelor of Economics degree from Rikkyo University.

The Middle East War is no longer just a regional risk for technology leaders. It is becoming a global economic stress test — affecting energy prices, supply chains, inflation, business confidence, and IT budget decisions across Asia Pacific.

For CIOs, CFOs, and technology suppliers, the question is not simply whether IT spending will continue to grow in 2026. The sharper question is: which investments will still earn approval when volatility hits the budget?

That is the central signal from IDC’s latest webinar, Asia Pacific IT Spending Outlook 2026: Where to Win Amid Market Volatility. The market is not freezing. It is filtering.

This matters because the disruption is emerging against a market with strong underlying momentum. The opportunity is still there. The rules for winning it are changing.

The Middle East War is the shock

IDC’s earlier point of view on the Middle East War’s impact on IT spending outlined the broader global pressure points, from energy price volatility to supply chain disruption and cloud resiliency.

In Asia Pacific, those pressures are showing up in practical ways. Higher oil and electricity costs can raise operating expenses. Supply chain disruption can increase hardware costs and delay availability. Currency and pricing pressure can make approvals harder. As uncertainty rises, organizations move faster into contingency planning.

The first effect is not always a budget cut. More often, it is hesitation. Organizations start asking which projects are necessary, which can be phased, and which need to prove value faster.

As I noted during the webinar: “IT spending is likely to remain more resilient than in previous downturns because AI investment continues to support both the IT industry and broader economic growth.”

Resilience matters. It keeps the outlook from becoming a slowdown story. But resilience does not remove risk. The longer energy prices and supply chain disruption remain elevated, the more likely selective delays become targeted cuts.

Budget rotation is the signal

The most important shift is not how much organizations spend, but what they are willing to defend.

In a more volatile environment, buyers are becoming more risk-averse. ROI thresholds are rising. Procurement cycles involve more stakeholders. Vendors are seeing longer deal cycles, greater pricing pressure, and less predictable pipelines.

The visual above captures the core market signal: APAC IT spend is rotating, not disappearing.

Large transformations, experimental initiatives, and hardware-heavy refreshes are more likely to be deferred or reduced unless they are directly tied to productivity gains. Enterprise platform upgrades, GenAI pilots, and data and analytics programs are still in play, but they face tighter scrutiny and phased rollouts.

What remains protected? Investments tied to measurable outcomes. AI with clear ROI. Cloud optimization that supports flexibility and cost control. Cybersecurity that reduces risk and supports regulatory compliance. Infrastructure resiliency that helps organizations absorb disruption.

My colleague Vinayaka Venkatesh, summarized the shift directly: “The deals are not disappearing, but they are taking longer and require more effort to close.”

For technology suppliers, that line is the market cue. In 2026, vendors will not win by selling transformation in broad terms. They will win by helping buyers make the case for action now.

AI remains resilient, but proof matters more

AI remains central to the Asia Pacific technology agenda. IDC’s Asia/Pacific AI and GenAI spending outlook shows continued growth momentum as organizations invest in automation, productivity, and new business models.

But resilience does not mean every AI project gets a free pass.

One of the more important nuances from the webinar is the gap between AI infrastructure investment and enterprise AI execution. Hyperscalers and service providers continue to invest aggressively in AI infrastructure. At the same time, some enterprise AI initiatives are being de-scoped, delayed, or challenged on measurable outcomes.

This is where the “year of reckoning” for AI becomes real. AI use cases tied to cost savings, automation, customer experience, risk reduction, and operational efficiency will be easier to defend. Weak GenAI pilots, unclear operating models, or projects without a credible path to production will face more scrutiny from CFOs and cross-functional decision-makers.

AI for AI’s sake will not win the next budget cycle. AI with measurable business impact will.

What to remember for H2 2026 planning

As technology leaders plan for the second half of 2026, three takeaways matter most:

1. APAC IT spending is being disrupted, not derailed
The Middle East War is creating real pressure through energy costs, inflation, supply chain disruption, and weaker business visibility. But priority investments continue to support the market, especially AI infrastructure, cybersecurity, resiliency, and cloud optimization.

2. Budgets are rotating toward measurable value
Lower-priority initiatives, long-payback projects, and unclear business cases are facing delays. Investments that reduce risk, improve efficiency, support compliance, or deliver near-term ROI are better positioned for approval.

3. AI remains resilient, but the proof bar is rising
AI investment remains strong, but enterprise projects need clearer outcomes, stronger business cases, and a faster path from pilot to production.

The path forward is not about spending more for the sake of momentum. It is about knowing where to spend, what to protect, and what to pause.

Register for the on-demand webinar

The Middle East War is the shock. Budget rotation is the signal. Measurable value is the next move.

Register for the on-demand webinar, Asia Pacific IT Spending Outlook 2026 to see IDC’s latest scenario analysis, buyer data, and guidance on where IT spending is holding, where it is slowing, and what it means for H2 2026 planning.

Stephen Minton - Group Vice President, Data & Analytics - IDC

Analyst Profile
Stephen Minton is a group vice president with the IDC Data & Analytics group, focusing on ICT spending and macroeconomics. Mr. Minton is responsible for Worldwide ICT Spending programs, including the Worldwide Black Book, Worldwide 3rd Platform Spending Guides, and Worldwide Telecom Services Tracker. Mr. Minton's research expertise includes global ICT and economic analysis, and he tracks market data across hardware, software, services, telecom and emerging technologies. He is the author of papers that focus on the economic impact of IT, and is a regular speaker on the subject of IT spending. In 2002 he addressed the United Nations in New York, speaking to UN ambassadors on the subject of the Information Society. Mr. Minton previously worked with Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), before joining IDC in 1998. Originally from Hartlepool in the North of England, he graduated from the University of Salford in 1995. He has also worked in the field of consumer market research with Millward Brown International.
Vinayaka Venkatesh

Vinayaka Venkatesh - Senior Market Analyst

Analyst Profile
Vinayaka Venkatesh is a senior market analyst for the IDC Asia/Pacific IT Spending Team based in Bangalore, India. He currently works as a vertical analyst, covering multiple spending guides for Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan and China) (APEJC). He joined IDC in…