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Persona: Tech Vendors

At the IDC Quanta launch webinar, Joe Bradley, CTO at IDC, made the case for why trusting an AI-powered answer shouldn’t require faith; it should require an architecture you can actually inspect. You’ve heard “AI-powered” enough times this year that a healthy dose of skepticism is the right response. Fair. So instead of asking you to trust that IDC Quanta gets its answers right, here’s what Bradley says is actually happening under the hood when it does.

Bradley breaks it down into two layers. The first is an MCP server: essentially a pipe that gives Claude direct access to IDC’s data, the trackers, the forecasts, the market figures. It also carries instructions for how that data is structured and how to use it. The second is IDC’s own Claude plugin, which goes further, Bradley explains. It shapes how the AI reasons about that data, tells it what’s relevant for what purpose, and requires it to surface a source before handing over any answer. Put together, when someone asks a question, Claude isn’t searching a phrase in a database, Bradley says. It’s reasoning with IDC’s own methodology built into the process.

That’s the theory. Here’s what it looks like in practice.

The Moment It Earned Trust

In the product demo, Bradley walked through a scenario: an FP&A analyst building a market forecast ahead of a CFO review, projecting 16% growth in a segment his company competes in. He asked IDC Quanta to check that number against an external benchmark, right inside Excel.

In under a minute, Quanta surfaced IDC’s actual forecast for that market: 12.1% growth through 2029, with the category decelerating to single digits in the later years. His model hadn’t caught up to where the market was actually headed. That’s the payoff of the architecture above. The answer arrived with its source attached.

Why Even Build an App

Technical buyers reasonably ask why IDC needs its own app when Claude and ChatGPT already exist. IDC isn’t positioning itself as a competitor to the assistants people already use daily. It’s building something with a narrower job.

The case for IDC Quanta comes down to control over how IDC’s own data gets handled and delivered. It exists because of what only a dedicated app can guarantee: a single place that collects everything relevant across an IDC relationship, a direct line to a live analyst when the automated answer isn’t enough, and data handling built on tenant isolation, enforced access controls, and audit logs that capture every user action. Which raises the next question technical buyers ask first.

Provenance You Can Check Yourself

Bradley’s last test for anyone skeptical of AI-generated answers is provenance. Can you verify where it actually came from? In a second demo, he showed IDC Quanta processing a strategy document sent over email, then breaking its answer down into cited data cuts, each one tied explicitly to the filters and definitions behind it.

Nothing here is asserted without a source attached, and nothing requires trusting the AI’s summary over the underlying data itself. That’s the actual answer to “how do you know it’s not confidently wrong”: you don’t have to take Quanta’s word for it. You can check.

See It Yourself

The architecture, the demo, and the sourcing are easier to evaluate firsthand than to take on faith. Request a demo, or talk to your IDC account team if you already have one.

Ryan Smith - Content Marketing Director - IDC

Ryan Smith is the Director of Content Marketing at IDC, where he leads brand-level content and social media strategy, aligning research insights with compelling storytelling to engage technology decision-makers. With a background in both IT and marketing, Ryan brings a unique blend of technical understanding and creative strategy to his work. He’s also a seasoned storyteller, speaker, and podcast host who believes the right message, told the right way, can drive both trust and transformation.

This is the second post in Meet IDC Quanta, a short series showing what the product actually does, starting with the portal, then your inbox, then wherever you’re already working in Claude.

It’s 4:47 PM. You’re prepping for tomorrow’s board meeting, and a question just landed that wasn’t on your list: how does your cloud infrastructure position compare to what’s shifted in the market over the last two quarters. You could open a portal, log in, run a search, filter by date, read three reports, and synthesize an answer. Or you could pull up your phone in the elevator.

Most executives don’t have a research workflow. They have an inbox. IDC Quanta was built on that premise: the fastest tool for a time-pressed leader is the one they never have to open, because it’s already open.

What it actually does

IDC Quanta in email lets you ask a question and get a sourced IDC answer back in about 60 seconds. It works the way you’d already expect email to work, which is exactly the point.

Emailing Quanta
  1. Compose an email to brief@quanta.idc.com, from your phone, your laptop, whatever’s in front of you.

  2. Ask the question in plain language. No query syntax, no keyword tricks. “Which cloud infrastructure vendors gained share in EMEA in the past 12 months?” is a complete request.

  3. Send it, and keep moving. A structured, sourced answer arrives in about 60 seconds, fast enough that you can send the question walking into a meeting and have the answer before you sit down.

  4. The reply carries its own receipts. Every claim in the answer traces to a specific IDC source. If you want to go deeper, “View in IDC Quanta” drops you straight into the full portal conversation, context intact.
A sample email response from IDC Quanta

No login screen to remember, no new app for IT to vet. And no tab-switching mid-meeting. The intelligence comes to the inbox. The inbox doesn’t change to accommodate it.

Where this earns its keep

The mechanic is simple. What makes it valuable is what it replaces across a week of an executive’s actual work:

  • Before the call.
    A prospect meeting is in twenty minutes and you need a current read on their competitive positioning. Email the question on your way to the conference room. The answer’s there before you sit down, cited and ready to use.

  • Benchmarking your own thinking.
    Attach a competitive deck or account plan to your email along with your question. IDC Quanta reads it alongside its own research base and flags where your internal view and IDC’s tracked data disagree. You’re getting your own analysis checked against the numbers.

  • The follow-up nobody has time to chase.
    Someone asks a sharp question in a meeting and the honest answer is “let me get back to you.” Now that follow-up takes one email and about a minute. Who else on your team wishes they had that?

  • Board and investor prep, compressed.
    The night-before scramble for one more data point doesn’t need the whole deck reopened. One email, one sourced answer, dropped straight into the slide.

Why this isn’t just a fast AI reply

A lot of tools will answer an email question with confidence. Confidence isn’t the same as being right, and it isn’t the same as being defensible in a room full of people who will ask where the number came from. Every IDC Quanta answer draws on IDC’s research base: 1,000+ analysts across 100+ countries, tracking 15B+ data points and 800K+ companies annually. That’s the citation trail behind every answer. It’s what makes an answer dropped in your inbox worth repeating in the room.

Get it in your inbox

If you’re already an IDC Quanta customer, brief@quanta.idc.com is live. Send the question you didn’t have time to research properly and see how fast a sourced answer actually moves.

If you’re not yet a customer, request a demo, and we’ll show you what it looks like when your inbox starts acting like a research team.

Ryan Smith - Content Marketing Director - IDC

Ryan Smith is the Director of Content Marketing at IDC, where he leads brand-level content and social media strategy, aligning research insights with compelling storytelling to engage technology decision-makers. With a background in both IT and marketing, Ryan brings a unique blend of technical understanding and creative strategy to his work. He’s also a seasoned storyteller, speaker, and podcast host who believes the right message, told the right way, can drive both trust and transformation.

At the IDC Quanta launch webinar, Jamie Fiorda, SVP of Product Marketing at IDC, laid out why the gap between how fast markets move and how fast organizations understand them is becoming the defining challenge for companies trying to act before conditions shift again. He also laid out where AI-powered intelligence tools fit into closing it.

Fiorda’s starting point was access: who actually gets to use the intelligence a company already has. In most organizations, the market intelligence a company already invests in tends to serve a narrow slice of the business (a research team, maybe a strategy analyst or two), while the insights that could sharpen decisions elsewhere in the company never reach the people making them.

That’s the pattern Fiorda described: intelligence that exists, but sits in a portal most of the organization has no reason to open. The problem isn’t the quality of the research. It’s that the value of it is being rationed by who has access, right as every function in the business is under pressure to move faster on planning that used to have more runway.

Positioning AI as an Intelligence Layer, Not Another Tool

Fiorda’s case for IDC Quanta wasn’t framed as a new subscription or a new dashboard to learn. It was framed as infrastructure: a layer that sits beneath the tools an organization already uses, making the intelligence within them actionable and defensible.

Organizations already have plenty of AI tools. What most of them can’t do is prove their answers are trustworthy. That gap shows up largest in finance: nearly a third of global enterprises still run their finance analytics function with no formal structure at all, department by department, which is exactly where an M&A assumption or a market-sizing input gets challenged first by a board, an investor, or an auditor. Fiorda’s argument centers on embedding intelligence directly into the workflows where strategy is developed, backed by a source a leadership team can point to when that challenge arises.

What This Looks Like Across a Business

Fiorda walked through what that shift means function by function, not as a feature list, but as a picture of how fast an organization can move when intelligence isn’t gated to one team.

A market intelligence team doesn’t change what it does, just how quickly it does it: sizing markets and benchmarking with intelligence flowing directly into the tools they already use.

Finance picks up a use case that’s often entirely new: market sizing inside their own models, risk analysis, revenue validation, all backed by third-party data at the point of decision. IDC research points to real upside here: cognitive technologies applied across due diligence and predictive analytics are projected to drive a 25% increase in M&A returns by 2027, largely because AI-enabled screening surfaces viable targets faster than traditional methods can.

Product gains competitive benchmarking and roadmap validation the same way. Marketing builds segmentation and messaging grounded in actual demand trends instead of assumptions a real shift for CMOs navigating today’s pressure to justify every dollar: IDC research found 52% are already leaning harder into scenario-based planning and 41% report increased pressure to justify marketing ROI, both signs that assumption-driven messaging is no longer good enough. And sales walks into a room with validated, current talking points instead of a battlecard built last quarter.

The strategic point is that all five are pulling from the same source of truth, at the same time, without waiting on each other.

The Question Leaders Must Consider

Fiorda’s close reframed the pitch as a single question for leadership to sit with: if the intelligence an organization already values could reach five functions instead of one, what would that be worth? It’s worth sitting with the scale of that gap: IDC research shows nearly 60% of Chief Data Officers say their organizations need to rethink how they use analytics in decision-making, and only about a third of executives are active users of the intelligence tools already in place. That’s not just a research quality problem. It’s strategic value sitting untouched, simply because of where information lives.

In a landscape changing this quickly, the organizations that move fastest will be the ones where that research actually reaches every team that needs it.

Learn More

Organizations already working with IDC can talk to their account team about which teams could get access next. Those exploring IDC Quanta for the first time can request a demo at idc.com/quanta to see where this fits for your team.

Ryan Smith - Content Marketing Director - IDC

Ryan Smith is the Director of Content Marketing at IDC, where he leads brand-level content and social media strategy, aligning research insights with compelling storytelling to engage technology decision-makers. With a background in both IT and marketing, Ryan brings a unique blend of technical understanding and creative strategy to his work. He’s also a seasoned storyteller, speaker, and podcast host who believes the right message, told the right way, can drive both trust and transformation.

You need a defensible answer in minutes, but the research to get there properly would take hours you don’t have. So you open a generic AI tool, get an answer that sounds confident, and move on. Maybe it’s right. Maybe it’s built on outdated data and a market definition that doesn’t quite match your business. You won’t find out until someone in the room asks you to defend it.

That’s the gap IDC Quanta was built to close. Today, it launched.

What Is IDC Quanta?

IDC Quanta is IDC’s technology intelligence fabric. It runs on 60 years of proprietary research and 15 billion data points, built directly into the tools your team already uses: Excel, email, Claude, idc.com. Five things separate it from a general-purpose AI tool. It meets your team where they already work instead of sending them to a portal. It draws on your organization’s own data to make answers specific to your situation. Every document stays behind AES-256 encryption and SOC 2 certification, with automatic 90-day deletion. It runs continuously in the background, so intelligence reaches you before you ask for it. And every answer is checked against IDC’s proprietary data through a multi-agent verification system, with citations you can trace back to the source. Most AI tools don’t hand you that receipt.

That last part matters most. An answer without a source is a guess wearing a confident tone. An answer with one is evidence you can put in front of a CFO.

Watch It Work: A Forecast That Almost Made It Into a CFO Review

Here’s what that looks like in practice. In the launch demo, an FP&A analyst is building a market forecast ahead of a CFO review, projecting 16% growth for a security segment his company competes in. His director gave him one instruction before signing off: validate the number against an external benchmark, because the CFO will ask.

He asks IDC Quanta the question, right inside Excel. In under a minute, Quanta surfaces IDC’s own forecast for that market: 12.1% growth through 2029, with the category decelerating to single digits in the out years. His number was running well above where the market is actually headed — and now he knows it before the CFO does.

A generic AI tool would have given him a number. IDC Quanta gave him a number, a source, and the time to find out what the number was actually missing. Which one would you rather walk into that meeting with?

What Early Customers Are Saying

None of this matters if it doesn’t hold up outside a demo. During the beta, IDC Quanta went into the hands of more than 175 customers, and the pattern in what came back was consistent.

“As soon as I used it, I knew it. Confidence comes from trust of the vendor. I trust IDC to give me good information,” said Mark Terranova, Global Head of Analyst Relations at Kyndryl.

“An AI backed by IDC’s research gives me a lot more confidence in the answers,” said Philip Langeberg, CTO of the Resorts Companies.

Jolene Peixoto, VP of Corporate Communications at Relex, put it simply: it helps her team get value from IDC research even faster.

Get Started

This is a first look, not the full story. Quanta is going into every workflow we can reach, one integration at a time. If you want to see it for yourself, request a demo at idc.com/quanta, or reach out to your IDC account team directly. Or catch the full launch webinar on demand — the replay is live now.

Ryan Smith - Content Marketing Director - IDC

Ryan Smith is the Director of Content Marketing at IDC, where he leads brand-level content and social media strategy, aligning research insights with compelling storytelling to engage technology decision-makers. With a background in both IT and marketing, Ryan brings a unique blend of technical understanding and creative strategy to his work. He’s also a seasoned storyteller, speaker, and podcast host who believes the right message, told the right way, can drive both trust and transformation.

I spent much of my career helping organizations operationalize customer and employee intelligence. During that time, I watched an entire industry emerge around dashboards.

Companies invested billions collecting customer feedback, employee sentiment, operational metrics, and business intelligence. Entire software categories were built around helping organizations visualize that information and drive action.

The model worked extraordinarily well.

Companies like Qualtrics, Medallia, Tableau, Salesforce, and many others helped define a generation of enterprise software. But over time, a pattern emerged.

The problem was never collecting the data; the problem was getting people to use it.

Organizations spent years trying to encourage executives, managers, and frontline employees to regularly log into dashboards, review reports, identify issues, and take action.

Adoption became a business problem unto itself. The intelligence existed, but the behavior did not.

The hidden cost of dashboards

The challenge with dashboards is simple: they require users to interrupt their workflow.

Every dashboard assumes a user will:

  1. Stop what they are doing.
  2. Open a separate application.
  3. Find the relevant information.
  4. Interpret it.
  5. Decide what to do next.

That process creates friction, and friction is the enemy of adoption.

Today, most professionals spend the majority of their time in a handful of environments:

  • Email
  • Teams
  • Slack
  • CRM platforms
  • ChatGPT
  • Claude
  • Productivity applications

These have become the operating systems for modern work. Every additional application competes for attention against those environments, and most lose.

AI changes the equation

Large language models have created a new interface for work, allowing users to interact with intelligence through natural language rather than reports, dashboards, and portals. For the first time, intelligence no longer needs to live in a separate destination. Instead, it can travel directly to the user.

An executive can ask a question inside ChatGPT.

A seller preparing for a customer meeting can instantly surface market trends, competitive threats, and analyst insights directly within Salesforce.

A product leader can receive market insights through Teams.

A strategist can query complex research through an AI assistant.

The user never leaves their workflow, because the intelligence comes to them. This represents more than a user experience improvement: It’s about introducing a fundamentally different operating model.

The goal isn’t simply better intelligence. It’s reducing the friction between intelligence and action.

Why proprietary data matters more than ever

Many organizations believe AI itself is the competitive advantage. I believe the opposite.

As models become increasingly accessible, the differentiator will be intelligence.

Organizations that possess unique, proprietary, trusted data will have a significant advantage because they can combine AI with insights that cannot be found on the open internet. That’s exactly what makes this moment so rich with potential.

At IDC, we have decades of proprietary market intelligence: market sizing data, competitive positioning, technology adoption trends, vendor performance data, industry forecasts, and strategic research.

These are the datasets organizations use to make billion-dollar decisions. Historically, customers accessed that intelligence through reports, portals, and analyst interactions.

Today, AI allows us to reimagine how that intelligence is consumed.

From intelligence systems to decision systems

The next evolution is bigger than dashboards, and it’s bigger than reports. It’s even bigger than AI assistants.

The real opportunity is creating a technology intelligence layer that connects:

  • Market intelligence
  • Customer intelligence
  • Operational intelligence
  • Financial intelligence
  • First-party enterprise data

When those signals come together, organizations gain a more complete view of their markets, customers, competitors, and business performance. At that point, we are no longer talking about a research platform, but a new decision system.

IDC Quanta was built around this idea: bringing trusted technology intelligence directly into the workflows where decisions are made.

The organizations that win in the next decade will not necessarily have the most data, but they will have the least friction between intelligence and action.

Dashboards are dead because intelligence no longer needs a destination. It can travel directly to the moment of decision.

Nick Mercurio - Chief Revenue Officer - IDC

Chief Revenue Officer As Chief Revenue Officer of IDC, Nick Mercurio leads the company’s global commercial organization, including Sales, Customer Success, and Revenue Operations. He is responsible for accelerating growth, expanding customer value, and advancing IDC’s position as the technology intelligence layer of the AI economy.

Right now, the world is generating more than seven petabytes of data every second. That’s roughly the equivalent of producing 17 billion books every second. By 2029, that number will more than double. And that’s before more than a billion AI agents come online, each one generating, consuming, and amplifying information at machine speed. [IDC Global DataSphere Forecast, 2025–2029]

We’re drowning in information.

But more data doesn’t mean more clarity. In fact, it’s quite the opposite. Most of what’s flooding in isn’t even original; it’s copies, reprints, and regurgitations. And AI can make even bad data look very convincing.

In a world where noise is growing and clarity is fading; the biggest challenge enterprises face is discerning what’s real from what’s just an echo.  The winners won’t be the organizations with the most data. They’ll be the ones with frictionless access to the truth — and the confidence to act on it.

Today, IDC is delivering that with IDC Quanta, the technology intelligence fabric of the AI-enabled enterprise. For more than 60 years, organizations around the world have trusted IDC to help them navigate technology decisions and deliver data-backed intelligence to sharpen business strategies.

IDC Quanta takes the same structured, sourced, defensible insights, pairs them with your data and context, and puts them inside the tools your teams already use. A process that previously required disjointed systems, manual synthesis, and endless hours is now relevant, citable, and frictionless.

Intelligence embedded where you work

IDC Quanta lives inside email, inside Anthropic’s Claude AI, and inside the custom AI tools and workflows enterprises are building right now. No portal or separate login required. No need to leave the tools or workflows you’re already in. Instead, IDC Quanta gives you the ability to call on its intelligence the moment you need it — whether that’s a competitive client deal on the line, a board presentation, a roadmap under review, or vetting a new software platform.

Intelligence built on your context

Upload your own data and documents, and IDC Quanta synthesizes and visualizes them alongside IDC’s research in a single session. Adding to that is an extensive memory layer that ensures every conversation deepens what IDC Quanta knows about your role and your priorities, making each answer it returns sharper than the last. Your business context, combined with IDC’s, gives you a fuller picture than either could produce on its own.

But there’s something else important to note when it comes to context, and that’s security. With more than 175 beta customers helping us shape IDC Quanta’s development, the questions we heard most were simple: is loading data and documents secure, and are those documents used to train the model? The answers are “yes” and “no, respectively. Every upload lives in a private workspace with AES-256 encryption, enterprise-grade compliance and privacy controls, is automatically deleted after 90 days, and is never used to train IDC’s models. That means the confidence IDC Quanta gives you never comes at the cost of what you shared to get it.

Intelligence you can defend

Every response IDC Quanta gives runs through a multi-agent system that validates it against IDC’s 15B proprietary data points and expert-led research before it ever reaches you. An expandable reasoning panel shows exactly how the answer was built and includes detailed citations for answers you can stand in the boardroom and defend.

Intelligence on your schedule

IDC Quanta doesn’t wait to be asked. Automated scheduling capabilities enable IDC Quanta to proactively deliver the intelligence you need to monitor with regularity and then goes a step further, surfacing anonymized peer signals and related follow-up questions you didn’t know to ask.

An exciting future

IDC Quanta is live today and available to all current and new IDC customers. It was Amarok CIO Ashley Spicer who said it best:

“We are getting ridiculous, previously unimaginable value from IDC Quanta.  If you had told me 20 years ago that I would have access to something like this in my lifetime, I would have said no way. Our team is creating massive value by fielding questions and guiding understanding for critical decisions and strategic programs.”

With more integrations, more use cases, and packages tailored specifically for CIOs and IT leaders arriving this August, we’re just getting started. Intelligence will never be the same.

Visit www.idc.com/quanta to see it for yourself.

 

Lorenzo Larini - Chief Executive Officer - IDC

Chief Executive Officer of IDC, responsible for leading the company’s global strategy, operations, and growth. Lorenzo brings more than two decades of experience across the Research, Advisory Services, Enterprise Software, and AI sectors, most recently serving as CEO of Mint.ai, where he led the development of AI-driven workflow solutions. Previously, he served as CEO of Ipsos North America, where he led transformative growth for one of the world’s top market research and data analytics firms. He has also held global senior executive roles in Gartner’s technology division, including SVP of Executive Programs, advising global CIOs and enterprise leaders on digital transformation and operational excellence.

What Happened in India’s PC Market in Q1 2026? 

India’s traditional PC market (encompassing desktops, notebooks, and workstations) delivered a standout performance in Q1 2026, with total shipments reaching 4.4 million units, representing 31.1% year-over-year growth, according to IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. Notably, this marked the third consecutive quarter in which shipments exceeded the 4-million-unit threshold, a milestone that underscores the market’s sustained momentum. The growth came even as PC prices continued to rise due to component shortages. Nonetheless, this reflects strong demand across both consumer and commercial segments, fuelled by digital transformation, enterprise investment, and large-scale education procurement. 

Why It Matters 

The Q1 2026 results signal the resilience of India’s PC market in the face of structural pricing pressures. Here’s what stakeholders should take away: 

  • Vendors should limit dependency on education-led demand and monitor the durability of government procurement pipelines. ELCOT was a major volume driver this quarter, but such big volume projects are rare.   
  • Rising prices are accelerating premiumisation, but they also risk squeezing out price-sensitive buyers in the consumer and SMB segments if unchecked. 

Market Dynamics: What Drove the Outcome? 

Three converging forces shaped the quarter’s strong performance: 

  • ELCOT education project led to notebook surge: The execution of the Tamil Nadu government’s ELCOT education procurement programme was the single largest growth catalyst. It drove the education segment to an exceptional 455.2% YoY growth and propelled the overall notebook segment to 3.3 million units, or a 55.4% YoY increase. 
  • Enterprise investment providing commercial resilience: Sustained domestic and global enterprise spending supported 24.2% YoY growth in the enterprise segment. Workstations, driven by high-performance computing needs in engineering and design, rose 31.8% YoY. 
  • AI adoption and premium segment expansion: Rising demand for AI-capable notebooks helped drive the premium notebook segment (above US$1,000) up 70.1% YoY. Consumer demand for premium devices outpaced commercial, growing 92.4% versus 56.1% YoY. 

Segment Snapshot: Winners and Laggards 

Notebooks: 3.3 million units | +55.4% YoY | Majority of total shipments 

Workstations: +31.8% YoY | Driven by engineering, design, and data-intensive sectors 

Desktops: −13.5% YoY | Elevated prices led to order deferments and cancellations 

Premium Notebooks (>US$1,000): +70.1% YoY | Consumer: +92.4% | Commercial: +56.1% 

AI Notebooks (total): +96.1% YoY  

India PC Market at a Glance: Q1 2026 

  • Total shipments: 4.4 million units (+31.1% YoY) 
  • Third consecutive quarter above 4 million units 
  • Commercial segment: 2.8 million units | Education: +455.2% YoY | Enterprise: +24.2% YoY 
  • Consumer segment: +11.7% YoY | eTailer: +23.1% YoY | Traditional retail: +8.7% YoY 
  • Top five vendors: HP Inc. (#1), Acer Group (#2), Lenovo (#3), Dell Technologies (#4), ASUS (#5) 

Analyst Insight 

“Despite persistent upward pressure on PC prices due to rising component costs, particularly DRAM and GPUs, consumer demand has remained resilient. With prices having increased over the past two quarters and expected to rise further in the coming months, proactive and transparent communication from vendors, partners, and channel stakeholders has encouraged early purchase decisions, thereby helping sustain overall market demand.” 

— Bharath Shenoy, Research Manager, Devices Research, IDC 

Vendor Landscape: Who Won the Quarter? 

HP Inc. retained the top spot with 26.6% market share, driven by ELCOT execution and solid enterprise demand (+27% YoY in commercial). Consumer growth was steady at 8.2% YoY, supported by strong large format retail (LFR) traction. 

Acer Group surged to second place with 21.3% market share, overtaking both Lenovo and Dell. ELCOT billing in the commercial segment, where it captured 25.5% share, was the key driver. A marginal 1.2% YoY dip in consumer shipments due to entry-level supply constraints was the only blemish. 

Lenovo held third with 18.3% market share. Commercial grew 32.3% YoY on enterprise and SMB strength, while consumer grew 20.8% YoY, bolstered by a gaming portfolio surge and e-commerce shipments up 58% YoY. 

Dell Technologies ranked fourth at 15.9% market share. Enterprise demand drove a 37.5% YoY segment increase, with overall commercial growing 38.7% YoY partly from ELCOT fulfilment. Consumer shipments grew 17% YoY despite pricing pressures. 

ASUS rounded out the top five at 6.9% market share. Gaming notebook demand lifted consumer growth 31.9% YoY, and an exceptional 241.1% YoY commercial surge reflected rising SMB momentum. 

IDC Outlook: What’s Next? 

The first half of 2026 is expected to sustain positive momentum, supported by favourable supply allocations, aggressive channel stocking, and front-loaded procurement ahead of anticipated price hikes. However, the second half presents a more cautious picture. 

  • What could sustain growth? Strong enterprise and SMB pipelines would drive 2Q 2026, continued AI notebook adoption, and successful rollout of products like Apple’s mass-market MacBook Neo (launched March 2026) might be some positive drivers for 2H 2026. 
  • What could slow it down? Inventory corrections in Tier 1 and Tier 2 channels, supply-side constraints, rising DRAM and GPU costs, and budget pressures in government and education segments. 
  • What should readers watch next quarter? Whether channel inventory levels normalise, how consumer demand responds to further price increases, and the pace of AI notebook adoption in SMBs. 

“Vendors have so far benefited from favourable supply allocations and are currently managing relatively high inventory levels across Tier 1 and Tier 2 channels. While enterprise and SMB segments continue to support volume-led procurement, shipments might decline in second half of the year. The government and education sectors could face challenges amid rising device prices and constrained budget allocations. The consumer segment may also witness a decline in the second half of the year unless pricing stabilizes. At the same time, Apple’s launch of the mass-market-focused MacBook Neo in March is expected to strengthen its position and potentially expand its presence across both consumer and SMB segments.” 

— Navkendar Singh, AVP, Devices Research, IDC 

Frequently Asked Questions 

Why did the PC market grow so strongly despite rising prices? 

The primary catalyst was the ELCOT education procurement project, which alone drove the education segment up 455.2% YoY and turbocharged notebook shipments. This institutional demand, combined with enterprise investments and early purchasing by both enterprises and consumers ahead of further price increases, more than offset the headwinds from elevated pricing. 

What risks could impact the PC market in 2026? 

The key risks include prolonged component cost inflation (especially DRAM and GPUs), potential inventory overhang in distribution channels, and weakening budget availability in government and education. If prices continue to climb, consumer spending moderation could also temper growth. 

About IDC 

International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of trusted technology intelligence, advisory services, and events. With more than 1,000 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 100 countries. IDC’s analysis and insights help IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC Asia/Pacific on X at @IDCAP and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights. 

All product and company names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders. 

For more information, contact Bharath Shenoy, Research Manager — Devices Research, or Navkendar Singh, AVP – Devices Research. 

Bharath Shenoy

Bharath Shenoy - Senior Market Analyst

Analyst Profile
Bharath Shenoy is a Senior Market Analyst at IDC India. Based in Bangalore, Bharath is responsible for tracking and analyzing market trends of PCs and Printers for Bangladesh. Prior to joining IDC, Bharath has worked with Dataxis as a Telecom…
Navkendar Singh

Navkendar Singh - Associate Vice President, Client Devices & IPDS, IDC India

Analyst Profile
Navkendar Singh is a Associate Vice President with IDC India, based in Gurgaon. His research domains encompass deep-dive research and insights in and around mobile devices, smart homes, PCs, tablets, wearables, and the printing market in India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka.…

The EMEA IT market continues to grow in 2026. But the real story is not growth alone. It is how that growth is evolving under pressure. 

In our latest State of the Market webinar, IDC analysts Andrea Siviero, Stephen Minton, Ewa Zborowska and Lapo Fioretti explored how AI acceleration, geopolitical developments and rising resilience priorities are reshaping IT spending across the region. 

Here are five key takeaways that define where the EMEA IT market is heading next. 

1. IT spending in EMEA is growing, but becoming more selective 

IT spending across EMEA remains on a growth path, supported by strong momentum in software and infrastructure. At the same time, the market is becoming more selective. Devices are expected to decline in 2026, while software, infrastructure and IT services continue to benefit from changing enterprise priorities and AI-related demand. 

This reflects a broader shift in how organizations are allocating budgets. Growth is still there, but investment decisions are being made with more scrutiny. Geopolitical pressure, regulation and economic uncertainty are no longer background factors. They are directly shaping where technology spend goes and which initiatives get prioritized. 

2. AI is accelerating and reshaping IT spending across EMEA 

AI is now one of the clearest growth engines in the market. In EMEA, AI spending is expected to reach $319 billion in 2026, growing 19.2% year over year and expanding more than three times faster than total IT spending. 

But the significance of AI is not only its growth rate. It is how deeply AI is starting to influence budget allocation, vendor strategies and enterprise priorities. Organizations are no longer asking whether AI matters. They are asking where it creates measurable value and how quickly it can be embedded into the business. 

3. The shift from AI pilots to AI at scale is underway, although slow with AI Value blocked by Execution, not Interest 

The AI conversation in EMEA is moving from experimentation to execution. Organizations are becoming less focused on launching new pilots and more focused on improving, scaling and operationalizing the AI initiatives they already have in place. 

This is where the market becomes more complex. Nearly 48% of organizations are prioritizing investment in customized AI agents to automate business processes. But scaling AI requires more than enthusiasm or access to tools. It depends on infrastructure, data readiness, governance and skills. The bottleneck is no longer AI ambition. It is execution capability. 

4. AI Focus Still High on Efficiency, with Rising Expectations for Innovation and Growth 

For many organizations, the first wave of AI value is still rooted in efficiency. AI is being used to automate workflows, improve productivity and reduce operational friction. 

But the opportunity is expanding. 93% of organizations now see AI as a source of new revenue, not just efficiency gains. That shift matters because it moves AI from a cost-saving discussion into a growth discussion. The next phase will be defined by organizations that can turn AI into new products, services, business models and customer value. 

5. Resilience, governance and AI sovereignty are shaping IT strategy 

Resilience is becoming a central filter for technology investment in EMEA. It is now the number two business priority for CEOs in the region, second only to growth. 

That has major implications for AI. As organizations scale AI, they need stronger governance, clearer data control, better infrastructure resilience and trusted deployment models. AI sovereignty is also moving higher on the agenda, especially as organizations consider where AI systems are built, hosted, governed and operated. 

The message from the webinar was clear: AI scale is not just a technology challenge. It is a trust, governance and resilience challenge. 

What this means for technology providers in EMEA 

The EMEA IT market is entering a more demanding phase. Growth opportunities remain strong, but they are increasingly tied to execution readiness. 

For technology providers, this means helping customers move from AI experimentation to AI at scale. It means supporting data, infrastructure and governance readiness. And it means positioning AI not only as an innovation investment, but also as a resilience investment. 

In 2026, competitive advantage will come from helping organizations turn ambition into operational impact. 

Watch the webinar on demand 

If you want to go beyond the headlines, the full webcast offers a deeper dive into the data, regional dynamics and real-world examples discussed by our analysts. 

You will get a clearer view of where growth is actually materializing, how AI maturity is evolving across EMEA, and what is separating organizations that are scaling successfully from those that are not. 

Watch the recording here. 

And if you would like to explore what these trends mean specifically for your business, our experts are always happy to continue the conversation. Simply reach out via the contact form. 

Stephen Minton - Group Vice President, Data & Analytics - IDC

Analyst Profile
Stephen Minton is a group vice president with the IDC Data & Analytics group, focusing on ICT spending and macroeconomics. Mr. Minton is responsible for Worldwide ICT Spending programs, including the Worldwide Black Book, Worldwide 3rd Platform Spending Guides, and Worldwide Telecom Services Tracker. Mr. Minton's research expertise includes global ICT and economic analysis, and he tracks market data across hardware, software, services, telecom and emerging technologies. He is the author of papers that focus on the economic impact of IT, and is a regular speaker on the subject of IT spending. In 2002 he addressed the United Nations in New York, speaking to UN ambassadors on the subject of the Information Society. Mr. Minton previously worked with Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), before joining IDC in 1998. Originally from Hartlepool in the North of England, he graduated from the University of Salford in 1995. He has also worked in the field of consumer market research with Millward Brown International.

Andrea Siviero - Senior Research Director, MacroTech, Digital Business, and Future of Work - IDC

Analyst Profile
Andrea Siviero leads IDC's European Digital Business and Future of Work Research group. The group provides market research insights to foster a purposeful and fair adoption of technologies supporting digital societies, businesses and workforce and empower tech providers in strategic decision making, planning and go-to-market activities. Siviero also co-leads the IDC Worldwide MacroTech Research program, focused on the intertwined connection between the Economical and Digital worlds - analyzing the impact key MacroEconomic factors have on the digital landscape and viceversa, how technologies are impacting economies around the world.

Ewa Zborowska - Research Director, AI, Europe - IDC

Analyst Profile
Ewa Zborowska is an experienced technology professional with 25 years of expertise in the European IT industry. Since 2003, she has been a member of the IDC team, based in Warsaw, researching IT services markets. In 2018, she joined the European team with a specific emphasis on cloud and AI. Ewa is currently the lead analyst for IDC’s European Artificial Intelligence Innovations and Strategies CIS.

Lapo Fioretti - Senior Research Analyst - IDC

Analyst Profile
Lapo Fioretti is a Senior Research analyst in IDC Digital Business Research Group, leading the European Emerging Technologies Strategies research. In his role, he advises ICT players on how European organizations leverage new technologies to create business value and achieve growth and analyzes the development and impact of emerging trends on the markets. Fioretti also co-leads the IDC Worldwide MacroTech Research program, focused on the intertwined connection between the Economical and Digital worlds - analyzing the impact key MacroEconomic factors have on the digital landscape and viceversa, how technologies are impacting economies around the world.

レガシーシステムが稼働し続けるたびに、競合他社が優位を築いていく。日本の2.1兆円規模のITモダナイゼーション市場は待ってくれない—変革を急ぐ企業も同様である。

主要指標

1,304億円 — ITモダナイゼーションサービス市場規模（2025年）

10.2% — 年平均成長率（2025〜2030年）

2,123億円 — 市場規模予測（2030年）

約80% — 依然としてレガシーシステムを稼働させている大企業・中堅企業の割合

なぜ日本は世界を上回るペースで成長しているのか

日本のITサービス市場は2024年から2029年にかけて年平均6.6%成長すると予測されており、世界平均の3.6%のほぼ2倍にあたる。その背景には構造的な要因がある。日本は特有の重いレガシー資産を抱えている——長年にわたる汎用機（メインフレーム）やオフィスコンピュータなどへの投資、複雑な個別開発システム、そしてそれらを長年維持してきた人材がある。今、これら三つに起因する課題が重なり合う中、ITモダナイゼーションが避けられないものになっている。

富士通メインフレームのサポート終了

2022年、富士通はメインフレームおよびUNIXサーバー製品の販売・サポートの2030年前後の終了を発表した。この発表により、1,000社以上の企業が後戻りのできないカウントダウンに入り、日本市場全体でITモダナイゼーションの取り組みが加速している。

AIへの対応という至上命題

AIの活用には、緊密に統合されたデータパイプラインと近代的なビジネスプロセス基盤が前提となる——まさにレガシーシステムはこれらの実現を阻む要素となっている。AI競争力を維持したい企業にとって、ITモダナイゼーションはもはや選択肢ではない。

人口動態の圧力

日本のレガシーシステムを構築・維持してきた世代のエンジニアが退職しつつある。そのノウハウや技術が失われてしまう前に、知識とインフラを移行できる時間は着実に縮まっている。

モダナイゼーションへの三つのアプローチ

IDCはITモダナイゼーションサービスを三つの実行タイプに分類しており、それぞれがサービス企業に異なる意味をもたらす。

リホスト

既存のアプリケーション資産を維持しながら、レガシー以外のプラットフォームへリフト＆シフトする。予算や移行期間に制約を抱える企業にとっての入口となる手法である。

リライト

ビジネスロジックを変えずに、レガシーのソースコードを現代的な言語に変換する。管理された変革のための中間的なアプローチである。

リビルド

プロセス、データモデル、アーキテクチャをゼロから再定義する。最も高い価値をもたらす一方、最も複雑なアプローチでもある。

短期的には、リホストはリビルドに次ぐ2番目に大きなセグメントであり、メインフレームなどのEOL（End of Life）に対し早急な対応を要するに企業による支出が市場を牽引している——ただし既に成熟期を迎えており、今後はマイナス成長が予測されている。中長期的な成長機会は、アプリケーションのモダナイゼーション——リライト、リファクタリング、マイクロサービス化やクラウドネイティブアーキテクチャの採用——にある。

国内ITモダナイゼーションサービス市場 支出額予測：　2025年～2030年

Source: IDC Japan, 2/2026

企業がサービスプロバイダーに本当に求めているもの

IDCの調査では、レガシー依存度が相対的に高い大企業・中堅企業は、単なる技術的な実行だけを求めているのではなく、変革のパートナーを求めていることがわかった。セキュリティは基本的な前提として期待される一方、上位のニーズにはビジネスプロセス変革の支援やクラウド活用支援が挙がっている。

需要のシグナルはセクターによっても明確に異なる。

金融サービス

クラウドネイティブなアプリケーション開発能力、すなわち近代的なインフラ上で素早くイノベーションを起こす能力を優先している。

製造・流通

ビジネスプロセスの変革を優先している。基盤となる技術を刷新するだけでなく、業務に効率性とインテリジェンスを組み込むことを重視している。

全セクターを通じて、IDCは企業の期待に一貫した変化を観察している。ビジネス上の成果が主要な購買基準になりつつある。技術的な能力は当然のこととして見なされ、価値の創出が差別化要因となっている。

今、勝てるポジションを築くために

サービス企業にとって、競争上の必要性は明確だ。この市場で勝利する最良のポジションにある企業は、次の三つを実行する。

1. レガシーモダナイゼーションの実績を体系化する

過去の案件は活用されていない資産だ。サービス企業は、達成したビジネス成果——コスト削減、リードタイムの改善、AI対応力の解放——を体系的にまとめた資料を構築し、これを市場への訴求の核にすべきである。

2. AIの時代に向けた業種別のリファレンスアーキテクチャを開発する

汎用的なモダナイゼーションの提案は説得力を失いつつある。企業は自社のセクター、規制環境、そしてAIへの志向に合わせたシステムアーキテクチャと実装ロードマップを求めている。

3. 需要に先行してアプリケーションモダナイゼーション能力に投資する

リホストの波は既にピークに差し掛かりつつある。高い利益率をもたらす機会——リライト、リファクタリング、リビルド——がその後に続いている。クラウドネイティブとマイクロサービスの深い能力を培ったサービス企業こそが、2030年に向け企業から選ばれる存在となる。

IDCが提供するレポートのご紹介

IDCでは、国内ITモダナイゼーション市場の動向を詳細に分析したレポートを発行しています。

2026年 国内ITモダナイゼーション市場動向
 

本調査レポートは、IDCの国内サービス市場予測における主要な成長促進要因の一つであるレガシーシステム（老朽化・陳腐化、肥大化・複雑化、ブラックボックス化したシステム）のITモダナイゼーションについて、市場規模の中期予測を示すと共に、国内企業（ITバイヤー）の取り組み動向や、それを支援するサービスベンダーの動向を分析しています。国内ITモダナイゼーションサービス市場予測では、サービスセグメント別、実行タイプ別（リホスト、リライト、リビルド）、システムタイプ別、産業分野別に予測しています。これらの分析から、国内企業のITモダナイゼーション支援におけるニーズ変化や市場機会、サービスベンダーの支援サービスの特徴や戦略を包括的に把握できます。

関連する調査やご相談について

より詳細なインサイトや市場動向については、当社アナリストへお気軽にご相談ください。

Masaru Muramatsu - Senior Research Analyst, Software, Services, and IT Spending, IDC Japan - IDC Japan

Analyst Profile LinkedIn
Masaru Muramatsu is a senior research analyst, responsible for research and analysis of the Japanese IT services market, including IT consulting, systems integration, business services. Prior to joining IDC, Masaru worked to help digitalize local government in Japan, implementing software as a service (SaaS) in the education and taxation sectors. He also acquired experience in domestic and international sales/marketing with his work for a company that provided materials for electronic devices like smartphones, PCs, and printers. Masaru Muramatsu earned a master’s degree in engineering from Chuo University, Japan.

中東での紛争激化は、すでに脆弱さを抱える世界のテクノロジー環境に対し、新たなマクロ経済・地政学的な変動要因をもたらします。

IDCは政治的な力学についてコメントしませんが、テクノロジー産業への影響は即時的で、定量的にも捉えられるものです。初期の地域インテリジェンスとIDCのマクロ経済モデリング・フレームワークに基づき、IDCはIT支出に対する主な影響要因を次の6つのベクトルとして整理します。エネルギー価格の変動、クラウドおよびデータセンターのレジリエンス（回復力）、ソブリン（主権）インフラの加速、サイバーセキュリティ、サプライチェーン、消費者および企業の投資心理の変化です。

本件は初期段階で急速に状況が変化しているため、IDCのシナリオ分析と予測は、中東に限定された戦争が3か月未満で終結するケースに主眼を置いています。現時点では、より長期に及ぶ場合のシナリオデータは公表しません。今後も状況を注視し、長期化の蓋然性がより明確かつ重要になった段階で、追加の分析を検討します。

紛争が最大3か月続く場合の「下振れシナリオ」では、IT支出への影響は測定可能である一方、相対的には中程度にとどまる見込みです。マクロ環境が弱含む局面でも、サービスプロバイダーはグローバル規模でのAIインフラ投資を引き続き積極的に維持する可能性が高いとIDCは見ています。短期の戦争は、クラウドサービスやエンタープライズソフトウェア需要への直接的影響は限定的ですが、再燃するインフレ圧力によってデバイスの更新（買い替え）や裁量的支出にブレーキがかかり得ます。
この下振れシナリオでは、2026年の世界IT支出成長率は、IDCのベースライン予測である約10%成長に対して、約9%成長に低下すると見込みます。戦争が長期化した場合は影響がより顕著になる可能性がありますが、現時点では予見が難しい状況です。
中東・アフリカ（MEA）地域のIT支出は2025年に1,550億米ドル（世界市場の4%）で、2026年は5%増が予測されています。これは、同地域のIT支出におけるデバイス比率が相対的に高く、メモリ価格上昇圧力の影響を受けやすいことから、世界平均より低い伸びとなっています。

紛争が3か月以内に収束する場合の「下振れシナリオ」では、MEAのIT支出成長率は2026年に3～4%へ低下し、短期的に企業・投資家心理へマイナスの含意が生じ得ます。国別の影響は、原油供給の力学などにより極めてまちまちとなる見通しです。長期化すれば影響はより大きくなります。

ただしIDCは現時点で、紛争は短期に終わり、混乱度合いも比較的低いというベースラインの前提を維持しています。AIインフラ展開、クラウド移行、継続中のデジタルトランスフォーメーション（DX）といった基礎的需要への影響は限定的である、という想定です。IDCは状況の進展に合わせて、継続的にモニタリング、およびアップデートを行う予定です。
以下は、IDCによる中東および世界のIT支出に関する短期～中期の構造化評価です。

原文：2026年3月2日公開（英語）｜日本語版監修： 寄藤 幸治

1. エネルギー価格ショック：最も主要な波及メカニズム

紛争激化の直後、原油価格は7～8%上昇し、ブレント原油は70～80米ドルレンジへ向かいました。IDCのIT支出モデルでは原油価格のベースライン平均を65～75米ドルとしています。IDCのモデルは、3か月の紛争を前提に平均原油価格が75～85米ドルへ上昇すると想定し、さらに長期化した場合は100米ドル前後、またはそれ以上へ近づく可能性があると見ています。

供給側の懸念を増幅させているのが、アラムコの製油所生産停止で、報道ベースでは日量約50万バレルに影響が出ています。またカタール・エナジーは一時的にガス生産を停止し、欧州のガス価格は40～50%高となりました。戦争が長期化すれば、中東からのガス・石油への依存度が高い国々（日本を含むアジアにも波及し得ます）で投入コストが大きく上昇します。

エネルギー価格の変動は、2026年のIT支出前提に影響する最重要のマクロ波及経路です。エネルギー価格の上昇は新たなインフレ圧力を生み、中央銀行の金融政策にも大きな影響を及ぼす可能性があります。近年の高インフレ局面を経て、企業・消費者の信頼感は依然として脆弱である一方、IT製品もメモリ部材不足によるインフレ圧力を抱えています。価格上昇は、支出の先送りや配分見直しにつながり得ます。

IT支出への影響

グローバル（世界）
• エネルギー価格高は、データセンター運用、半導体製造（ファブ）、物流、製造のコストを押し上げます。
• インフレが長引けば利下げが遅れ、企業ITプロジェクトの資金調達環境がタイト化し、IT購買に対する企業・消費者心理も悪化し得ます。
• 投入コスト上昇により、AIやDX施策の優先順位見直しが起こり得ます。

中東地域
• 紛争長期化と防衛支出の増加が、原油高による余剰収入を相殺し、テクノロジー投資を先送りする可能性があります。
• 事業継続、サイバーセキュリティ強化、ソブリン（主権）インフラ導入など必須領域への支出が優先されます。
• 湾岸の富裕国では政府主導のDXプログラムが維持され得る一方、他国では優先順位の見直しが起こり得ます。

2. クラウド＆データセンターのレジリエンスが戦略課題に

今回の戦争は、主要クラウド事業者のリージョンおよびアベイラビリティゾーン（AZ）が現実の戦闘地域で稼働するという、初めての事例となります。紛争初期に、あるグローバルクラウド事業者の複数AZにまたがる施設が相次いで攻撃を受けたことで、アーキテクチャのレジリエンスが示される一方、長期的紛争局面におけるクラウド環境の脆弱性も浮き彫りになりました。IDCは、クラウド、ストレージ、データセンター・アーキテクチャへの投資が優先事項になると見ています。ただし、データセンター建設は資本集約的で年単位の取り組みであり、建設費や資金調達コストの上昇、サプライチェーン摩擦が、実行のスケジュールを遅らせる可能性があります。

構造変化

• パブリッククラウドを利用する企業およびSaaS事業者にとって、マルチAZが最低限の標準となり、マルチリージョンはベストプラクティスとなります。
• 多国籍企業のクラウド配置におけるリスクモデリングは、国単位から、より広域のレジリエンスの枠組みへ拡張されます。

中東への影響

IDCでは以下のような影響が表れるものとみています。

• 冗長性を有する、自国資本のソブリンクラウドおよび国内データセンター投資の加速
• ハイパースケーラー（大手クラウド事業者）による、物理分離を伴うマルチAZ構成（例：単一AZから3-AZ設計へ）へのコミット強化

世界への影響

今回の事象は、以下のような事項に関する期待値の見直しを迫ります。

• クラウドのリカバリープランニング
• レジリエントなデータセンター基盤
• 地理的分散戦略
• インフラ投資判断に織り込まれるリスクプレミアム

長期的にはクラウド投資が増える可能性がある一方で、短期的には企業がアーキテクチャを再評価する中で、プロジェクトの進捗が遅れる場合があります。

3. ソブリン（主権）インフラと「戦略的自律性」

デジタル主権は、湾岸地域の各国が組織と市民のデジタル自己決定を重視する中で、この地域におけるクラウド戦略の主要潮流として、すでに定着しつつありました。紛争の初期段階においても、湾岸の政府、とりわけ資本余力のある国々は、俊敏性、レジリエンス、長期的な持続性を強化するため、ソブリン・デジタルインフラや分散クラウドモデルへの投資を加速する可能性があります。焦点は以下です。

• ソブリンクラウド・プラットフォーム
• 国家レベルのパブリックAIインフラ
• 政府機関によるサイバーセキュリティ強化と対応実務

各国は、より広い「戦略的自律性」への動きと整合する、重要インフラのレジリエンス・モデルの構築にも注力し、海外インフラ事業者への過度な依存を低減しようとします。代表的なモデルは次の通りです。

• Shared public：インフラ共有、運用はグローバル
• Dedicated public：占有リージョン、運用はローカルパートナーと共有
• National public：ローカルのクラウド事業者が保有、運用
• Managed private：顧客向けに事業者がホストし、事業者が管理
• Air-gapped private：分離（エアギャップ）された環境を顧客が運用

ただし財政要因は重要です。紛争初期だけでも数十億規模と推定される軍事支出は、予算配分のトレードオフを生みます。紛争期間が、ソブリンIT投資の加速を決めるのか、一時的な優先順位変更に留まるのかを左右します。

4. サプライチェーン：メモリ供給、スマート兵器、半導体への圧力

中東は、エネルギーの動脈であると同時に、物流・積み替え（トランシップ）拠点として、グローバル・テクノロジーサプライチェーンで重要な役割を果たしています。ホルムズ海峡の閉鎖、あるいは持続的な混乱は、頻度は低いものの影響が極めて大きいショックとなり、世界のIT市場へ実質的な影響をもたらし得ます。

ホルムズ海峡は、世界の原油輸送の約20%と、相当量のLNG（液化天然ガス）輸送を担います。同海峡が混乱した場合の最も即時的な影響は、エネルギーコスト増を通じて、欧州やアジア（日本を含む）におけるガス価格上昇、データセンター運用費増、半導体製造のエネルギーコスト増を招くことです。また、物流面では、保険料・航空／海上輸送費の上昇、消費者向けテクノロジーの組立・流通に向かう部材の遅延、アフリカや欧州の一部地域への出荷の停滞が見込まれます。

同海峡は、Jebel Ali（UAE）、Dammam（サウジアラビア）、Hamad Port（カタール）など湾岸主要港を支える航路でもあり、アフリカ、南アジア、欧州の一部地域への再輸出における重要ノードです（テクノロジー製品・部材を含む）。

世界のメモリ市場は、紛争激化以前から逼迫していました。本紛争は、タイトな需給環境をさらに悪化させ、世界のITハードウェア・エコシステムに波及し得ます。レノボのサウジアラビアでの製造拡張のような生産地域化の動きは、中東がグローバル・テックサプライチェーンで存在感を増していることを示しています。

主なリスクは次の通りです。

• 湾岸航路を通る物流の混乱
• 新たな製造ハブ立ち上げの遅延
• 保険・運賃コストの上昇

紛争が長期化すると、スマート弾薬やドローンシステムで先端半導体・メモリの軍事用途消費が急増し、国家安全保障の観点から半導体供給確保に向けた追加の国家介入が起こり得ます。これはDRAM/NAND価格、AIアクセラレータのメモリ構成、エンタープライズストレージ基盤コストに上押し圧力となり、AI導入を計画する企業がプロジェクト順序を見直す要因になり得ます。消費者デバイス価格もリスクに晒されます。

全体への影響は、戦争の期間と地理的な封じ込めに左右されます。数週間で収束すれば短期混乱の後に迅速な回復が見込まれますが、長期化すると地域・世界の市場条件により深刻な影響を及ぼします。

5. サイバーセキュリティ：即時の緊張上昇と構造的な支出増

地政学的な紛争は、サイバーリスクを実質的に高めます。国家支援や代理勢力によるサイバー活動は、軍事的緊張の高まりとともに増えることが多く、主な標的は以下です。

• エネルギーインフラ
• 金融サービス
• 通信
• 政府システム
• クラウド基盤およびSaaSプロバイダー

中東は高度持続的脅威（APT）の焦点地域であり、エスカレーションは攻撃頻度と高度化の両面を押し上げます。

直近のIT支出への影響

1）セキュリティ予算の加速
不確実性が高い局面でも、セキュリティは削減されにくい予算の一つであり、この文脈では増加する可能性が高いと考えられます。企業・政府は次の領域で支出を増やすでしょう。

• マネージド検知・対応（MDR）
• セキュリティオペレーションセンター（SOC）のモダナイゼーション
• ゼロトラスト・アーキテクチャ
• エンドポイント検知・対応（EDR）
• クラウドワークロード保護
• ID/アクセス管理（IAM）

2）インフラの堅牢化
重要インフラ事業者（エネルギー、公益、輸送）は次へ投資を増やします。

• OT（制御／運用技術）セキュリティ
• ネットワーク分離（セグメンテーション）
• エアギャップ型復旧環境
• バックアップ／サイバー復旧用ボールト

3）クラウドセキュリティの引き上げ
クラウドが戦略的標的になるにつれ、企業は次を進めます。

• CSPM（クラウドセキュリティポスチャ管理）への投資拡大
• マルチリージョンバックアップ戦略の拡充
• ハイパースケーラーに対し、レジリエンスやインシデント対応に関する透明性向上を要求

地域別の影響

中東

• 政府主導のサイバーセキュリティ・プログラムは拡大
• ソブリンなサイバー防衛能力への追加予算
• サイバーレジリエンスが国家DXに組み込まれる

世界

• 他地域に展開している多国籍企業は防衛投資を拡大
• サイバー保険コストが上昇し、リスク低減投資を後押し
• 防衛関連のサイバーセキュリティ／セキュア通信市場が成長

マクロ環境が弱含み、経済成長が鈍化しても、サイバーセキュリティは相対的に成長する領域となり得ます。紛争長期化のシナリオでも、セキュリティ投資は比較的底堅いと見込まれます。

6. 消費者向けテクノロジー支出と心理

消費者向けIT支出は、インフレの長期化とメモリ起因のデバイスコスト上昇で、すでに圧力を受けていました。紛争激化はこれに以下を上乗せします。

• 消費者心理の悪化（消費者信頼感は依然として脆弱）
• 投入コスト増によるデバイス価格上昇
• サプライチェーン混乱リスク

中東はJebel Aliなどを通じた積み替え拠点でもあるため、中東域内に加え、アフリカや欧州への物流にも波及します。供給網の混乱は、地域内外でPC、スマートフォン、各種デバイスの供給に影響する可能性があります。

また、高級不動産や観光といったエンターテインメントや高級品にかかわる産業では支出が一時停止し、関連する企業IT投資にも間接的影響が及び得ます。

中東域外でも、脆弱な消費者支出は、大幅または長期の価格上昇に耐えにくい状況です。エネルギーコスト上昇は、PC・タブレット・スマートフォン等の購入先送りを促す可能性があります。これらのカテゴリはメモリ供給不足によってすでに価格上昇が進んでおり、消費者が買い替えを待つ傾向をさらに強めるでしょう。

IT支出・投資への影響（IMPACT ON IT SPENDING & INVESTMENT）

AI投資：加速か、一時停止か？

投入コスト上昇とマクロ不確実性が、特に紛争長期化の場合、一部企業にAIの本番展開を再検討させる可能性があります。消費者心理と同様に、企業心理も依然として脆弱で不確実です。実体経済の減速が見え始めれば、短期的にプロジェクトの延期や縮小が起こり得ます。

一方で、ROIが実証され、測定可能な成果が迅速に効率改善をもたらす領域では、マクロでの逆風への対応としてAIがより積極的に導入される場合もあります。IDCの調査では、マクロ圧力への戦術的対応としてITを活用しようとする組織が増えている傾向が一貫して見られます。これは、外部環境の軟化兆候が見えた際に、IT支出削減が最優先の対応となりがちだった過去の景気後退局面とは異なる変化です。

総じて、比較的短期の紛争は多くの組織のAI／IT支出計画を大きく崩す可能性は高くありません。基礎需要は強く、近年の関税や他の地政学的対立といった外部ショックに対してもレジリエンスを示してきました。AIは引き続き優先度が高く、2026年はビジネスインパクトを高めるためのスケール展開が焦点となります。

最大のリスクは、紛争が長期化し、インフレ圧力とサプライチェーン混乱で資本・リソース制約が強まるケースです。AI支出は他投資より底堅い可能性がある一方で、最悪シナリオでは免疫ではありません。

相反する2つの力学

抑制要因（Constraining Forces）

• インフラコスト上昇
• 資金調達環境のタイト化
• メモリ不足

加速要因（Accelerating Forces）

• サイバーセキュリティ需要の増加
• 防衛関連のAI／アナリティクス投資
• 湾岸諸国におけるソブリンAI構想

どのような影響を受けるかは地域で異なります。

• 湾岸諸国：国家主導のAI投資が継続する可能性
• 欧州・アジア（日本を含む）：マクロへの感応度がより高い可能性
• グローバル企業：ROI精査がより厳格化

IT支出の3シナリオ見通し（Three-Scenario Outlook for IT Spending）

IDCのIT支出予測は、最新のマクロ経済・業界データを反映し毎月更新されます。この月次予測には、テクノロジー市場と経済条件の変化に対する感応度の歴史的相関に基づくシナリオが含まれます。

直近のベースライン予測は2月27日に公表され、原油価格やサプライチェーン要因の一定の変動をすでに織り込んでいます。今回IDCは、地域紛争が最大3か月続く（シナリオ1）または2026年の大半まで続く（シナリオ2）場合の影響を評価するため、2つの新シナリオを作成しました。

数週間で収束する短期の混乱はあり得るものの、IDCは現時点で、2月27日時点の「Black Book」予測（※IDCの月次予測）を改定する計画はありません。短期で収束すれば、より速い反発と年内の投資・プロジェクト再開が見込まれるためです。状況は流動的であり、次回の定例予測リリースである3月30日までに、ベースライン前提が変わる可能性があります。

2つのシナリオのうち、より可能性が高いのは3か月以内に収束するケースです。この「数か月」続くケースでは、IT支出により明確な影響が出て、年間成長率が約1.0ポイント下押しされる可能性があります。影響の大半は、デバイスと裁量的プロジェクト支出に集中します。他の外部要因がない限り、サービスプロバイダーがAI投資計画を大きく縮小するとはIDCは見ていません。

2000年代初頭のイラク戦争など過去の軍事衝突と比べ、IT産業は過去20年で大きく変化しました。企業IT支出におけるOPEX（運用費）・サブスクリプション比率が高まり、インフラ投資のより大きな部分がサービスプロバイダー側に集中しています。

企業IT支出に対する主要リスクは、政治そのものではなくマクロ経済要因であり、とりわけ原油高の長期化が企業・消費支出と金融政策の両面に影響する点です。紛争が3か月を超えるシナリオ2では、ITプロジェクトやデバイス更新の先送りが増え、IT支出への影響は1.0ポイント超となる可能性があります。

MEAでは影響はより複雑で、政治動向の不確実性も相まって変動しやすい見通しです。ただし、地域のAI戦略投資は継続する可能性が高く、下振れ影響は主に企業・消費支出の先送りに集中するとIDCは見ています。

IDCのMEAにおける2026年ベースライン（5%成長）は、シナリオ1（数か月継続）では3～4%に低下し得ます。スマートフォン市場はメモリ価格上昇の影響もあり、もともと減少が見込まれていましたが、改善前に一段と悪化する可能性があります。スマートフォンはMEAのIT支出に占める比率が相対的に高く、これが2026年の地域成長率を押し下げる要因となります。

ただし、最悪シナリオで3か月を超えて長期化しても、地域のクラウド／AI導入の基礎需要は強く、状況が落ち着けば比較的速く回復する可能性があります。

3つのシナリオ（要約）

ベースライン：紛争が封じ込められる（数週間）

• 一時的な原油スパイク
• 地域プロジェクトの軽微な停滞
• 世界IT成長見通しの修正は最小限

シナリオ1：地域不安定が継続（3か月未満）

• 原油は85～95米ドルで推移
• インフレ圧力により世界IT成長は0.5～1.0ポイント下押し
• ソブリンクラウド構築が加速
• 消費者向けデバイス回復が鈍化

シナリオ2：エスカレーションとエネルギーショック（6～9か月）

• 原油は100米ドル超
• 金利正常化が遅延
• 消費者需要が大幅に縮小
• 企業はレジリエンス／サイバー／重要インフラへ再配分
• とりわけMEAでIT支出への影響がより顕著

IDCの戦略的見解（IDC’s Strategic View）

中東での戦争は単なる地域の地政学イベントではなく、デジタル経済のエネルギー依存、インフラのレジリエンス、サプライチェーンに対する構造的な試験といえます。

IDCが注視する主要テーマは以下です。

• エネルギー価格の持続性とインフレ軌道
• クラウド基盤リスクの再評価と冗長化投資
• 防衛需要と連動するメモリ市場の逼迫
• 防衛とDXの間で生じる政府財政のトレードオフ
• 消費者心理の変化とデバイス需要の価格弾力性

中東が直接の影響を受ける一方で、世界のIT産業も、エネルギーコスト、半導体供給、資本配分判断を通じて二次的影響を被ります。

短期的には、企業の意思決定は慎重姿勢とシナリオプランニングが中心となるでしょう。中期的には、本紛争が、ソブリンインフラ、サイバーセキュリティ、マルチリージョンのクラウドレジリエンスといった構造的投資を加速させる可能性があります。

IDCは、経済前提の変化に応じて支出見通しを精緻化し続けます。IT支出予測は、最新の市場データと動向を反映し、毎月月末の最終営業日に公表しています。今後数日～数週間のデータを注意深くモニタリングしていきます。

エグゼクティブサマリー（Executive Summary）

• 紛争激化は脆弱な世界のIT環境に新たなマクロ／地政学変数を追加する。IDCは政治ではなく、測定可能なテック市場への影響に注目
• 主な影響ベクトルは6つ：エネルギー価格変動、クラウド／データセンターレジリエンス、ソブリンインフラ加速、サイバーセキュリティ、サプライチェーン（メモリ／半導体／物流）、消費者／企業心理
• ベースケース：中東に限定され、3か月未満。長期シナリオのデータ公表は現時点では見送り
• 世界IT支出：ベースライン2026年約10%成長、下振れ（最大3か月）で約9%成長。弱含みは主にデバイスと裁量案件
• MEA IT支出：2025年1,550億米ドル（世界の4%）。2026年ベースライン約5%成長。下振れで3～4%成長、国別影響は混在
• エネルギーが主要な伝播経路：原油・ガスの変動が運用／投入コストを押し上げ、インフレを強め、資本をタイト化し、プロジェクトを遅らせ得る
• クラウドレジリエンスは必須：マルチAZ／国内冗長化／リスクモデリング拡張。短期は再評価でペース鈍化の可能性
• サイバーセキュリティは相対的にプラスの影響：MDR／SOC、ゼロトラスト、EDR、IAM、CSPM、OTセキュリティ、復旧環境への投資が加速

執筆者（Authors）

• Stephen Minton（Group Vice President, Data & Analytics, IDC）
• Laurie Buczek（GVP, Research, IDC）
• Rick Villars（Group VP, Worldwide Research, IDC）
• Lapo Fioretti（Senior Research Analyst, IDC）
• Andrea Siviero（Senior Research Director, MacroTech, Digital Business, and Future of Work, IDC）
• Thomas Meyer（General Manager and Group Vice President, IDC EMEA, IDC）
• Ashish Nadkarni（GVP/GM, Infrastructure Research, IDC）
• Simon Ellis（Program GVP, IDC）
• Ranjit Rajan（Research Vice President, Worldwide C-Suite Tech Agenda, IDC）
• Harish Dunakhe（Research Director, Software and Cloud, META IDC）
• Jebin George（Senior Research Manager, Software, Cloud, and Industry Transformation, IDC MEA）
• Jean Philippe Bouchard（Vice President, Data & Analytics, IDC）

原文：2026年3月2日公開（英語）｜日本語版監修：寄藤 幸治

出典：IDC Blog “IDC Point of View: First Look at the War in the Middle East and Its Impact on IT Spending in the Region and Globally”

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Yukiharu Yorifuji - Group Vice President and Chief Research Analyst - IDC Japan

Analyst Profile
Yukiharu Yorifuji is Group Vice President and Chief Research Analyst of IDC Japan. In this role, Yorifuji is responsible for all the research area of IDC Japan, including hardware, software, services, and innovation accelerators. He had been engaged in IT and business services research for more than 12 years as a part of IDC services research team, such as market forecast, competitive analysis, and users' buying behaviors. He now makes a research of enterprises’ organization, talent management, and selection of the partners in Digital Transformation era, and introduces these results via reports and presentations. He has over 30 year experience in the IT industry in various roles including sales, marketing, and market analyst. Prior to joining IDC Japan, Yorifuji worked for a local consulting firm responsible for strategic projects including new business planning, corporate governance, and financial strategy for large companies. He also worked for Fujitsu where he was involved in international sales, marketing, and brand management. He holds a BA from Department of Social Science and MBA from International Corporate Strategy, from Hitotsubashi University, Japan.