Personal Computing Devices Market Share
Updated: 22 September 2022
Forecast Data Overview
Worldwide PCD shipments declined 10.7% year over year to 111.3 million units in the second quarter of 2022 (2Q22). Both traditional PCs and tablets declined in the quarter with PCs posting a decline of 15.7% year over year to 71.1 million units and tablets with a much smaller decline of 0.2% year over year to 40.3 million units. Growth in tablets was better than expected as there were smoother deployments into education projects. Several promotional sales, such as the "618" online promotion days in China and Amazon's Prime Day in the U.S further added to the boost in shipments and even new vendors like Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and realme performed beyond expectations. For PCs, this was the second consecutive quarter of lower shipments following two years of growth. The decline was worse than expected as supply and logistics further deteriorated due to the lockdowns in China and persistent macroeconomic headwinds.
The tablet market performed better than expected despite the inflationary pressures, geopolitical issues, and continued restrictions in China due to Covid. There are several factors that are working in favor of tablets: one being the continued demand for tablets as cheaper alternatives to PCs. Also, many top players have been doing a tremendous job with their distribution strategies and have been able to fully supply tablets for several education projects. Also noteworthy is the proliferation of low-cost detachables, especially from new entrants in regions like Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan and China), that are tapping into the demand for devices for education purposes and disrupting the vendor dynamics.
As for PCs, fears over a recession continue to mount and weaken demand across segments. Consumer demand has weakened in the near term and is at risk of perishing in the long term as consumers become more cautious about their spending and once again grow accustomed to computing across device types such as phones and tablets. Meanwhile, commercial demand has been more robust although it has also declined as businesses delay purchases. Despite the recent decline and weakening demand, the total PC volume is still comparable to the beginning of the pandemic when volumes reached 74.3 million in the second quarter of 2020 and the market is still well above pre-pandemic levels as volumes in the second quarter of 2018 and 2019 were 62.1 million and 65.1 million units respectively. While rankings among the top 3 companies did not change, Apple did manage to slip into the fifth position. As a result, Acer found itself in 4th place this cycle. Barring any further supply issues, IDC expects Apple to ramp up its production in the second half of the year.
In terms of forecast, tumultuous times are ahead for the PC and tablet markets. Global shipments of traditional PCs are forecast to decline 12.8% in 2022 to 305.3 million units while tablet shipments will fall 6.8% to 156.8 million. Inflation, a weakening global economy, and the surge in buying over the past two years are the leading causes for the reduced outlook.
Further contraction is also expected in 2023 as consumer demand has slowed, the education demand has been largely fulfilled, and enterprise demand gets pushed out due to worsening macroeconomic conditions. The combined market for PCs and tablets is forecast to decline 2.6% in 2023 before returning to growth in 2024.
Though demand is slowing, the outlook for shipments remains above pre-pandemic levels. Long-term demand will be driven by a slow economic recovery combined with an enterprise hardware refresh as support for Windows 10 nears its end. Educational deployments and hybrid work are also expected to become a mainstay driving additional volumes.