Personal Computing Devices Market Share

Forecast Data Overview

Worldwide PCD shipments posted a decline of 19.8% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2022 (4Q22), totaling 111.6 million units. Tablet shipments posted decline of 2.3% year over year while traditional PCs fell below expectations with a decline of 28.3% year over year. It is clear the pandemic boom is over for the PCD market, but despite recent declines, annual shipments for 2022 were well above pre-pandemic levels at 453.7 million units for the full year. However, demand remains a concern as most users have relatively new PCs and tablets and the global economy worsens.

Supply side activity shows many large vendors entered 2023 with a cautious outlook, but the consensus is that portions of the PC market could return to growth in late 2023 with the overall market following in 2024. The commercial segment has several drivers towards growth, including the approaching end of support for Windows 10 and a building refresh cycle, while the consumer market remains a wildcard for 2023 and beyond.

Average selling prices (ASPs) across many channels also fell as excess channel inventory over the course of the past few months triggered discounting in an effort to spur demand, despite these efforts, inventory management of finished PCs as well as components will remain a key issue in the coming quarters and has the potential to further affect ASPs.

On the tablet side, Apple and Samsung continued to be the main drivers. Apple’s new products launched in the quarter – the 11" and 12.9" iPad Pros and a 10.9" iPad – which were well received. The delayed launch of these products and the low base for comparison due to constraints in their supply chain drove the gains for Apple in 4Q22. Samsung benefitted from continued efforts in effective resource management, especially to fulfill several projects in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan and China) and Western Europe. The vendor has also been focusing on its premium tablet lineup to help build shipment volume. For Amazon, even though the fourth quarter is generally its best shipment quarter, two Prime Day sales in the year and the overall softness in the demand led to reduced shipments in the quarter. Lenovo and Huawei finished the quarter in a statistical tie* for the fourth position. Lenovo's shipments have been in decline due to several commercial projects coming to an end. Huawei's increased focus on marketing large screen tablets in their main geographic market, China (PRC), is paying off and they've managed to remain in the top 5 despite many hurdles.

Tablets, which were once used mainly for entertainment, have gained momentum in a range commercial applications. Faced with a looming economic downturn and market saturation, vendors will need to focus on the commercial segment to drive sales in the coming years.

For 2023 and beyond, declining demand and a tough macro-economic climate have led IDC to further reduce the outlook for PC and Tablet shipments as volumes are expected to reach 403.1 million in 2023, down from 429.5 million that was previously forecasted. While 2023 volumes are forecasted to be below 2019 levels, IDC expects 2024 to be a year of recovery with PC and tablet shipments growing 3.6% when compared to 2023 and surpassing pre-pandemic levels as total volume reaches 417.7 million units.

The tide toward a market slowdown had been building for some time. With consumers no longer bound by COVID restrictions and commercial backorders for PCs largely completed, the second half of 2022 sent a strong signal that endpoint devices are no longer the focal point, and 2023 will be a time toward clearing inventories and shifting priorities.

Commercial demand, both from businesses and schools, will remain a bright spot throughout the forecast as hybrid work and 1:1 deployments in schools have permanently increased the size of the total addressable market. The sunsetting of Windows 10 is expected to drive PC refreshes in 2024 and 2025 while Chromebooks and Android tablets benefit from educational deployments and refreshes. Despite Apple's slow and steady commercial gains in recent quarters, the company's lack of broad adoption amongst commercial buyers will likely lead to Microsoft and Google's platforms outshining Apple's growth in the next two years.

On the consumer front, the strength of the US dollar as well as rising inflation have greatly impacted buying power across the globe. Though long-term outlook remains positive and above pre-pandemic levels thanks to increased household density of PCs and Tablets, the market does risk consumer behavior reverting to smartphones and other forms of spend.

All in all, 2023 will be about resiliency for PCD vendors - Surplus inventory, declining demand, and receding macros will continue applying negative pressure on both volumes and ASPs, before returning to growth modes in both departments in the subsequent two years