Personal Computing Devices Market Share
Updated: 12 December 2022
Forecast Data Overview
Worldwide PCD shipments were down 13.3% year over year in the third quarter of 2022, totaling 112.5 million units, according to the latest data published by International Data Corporation. Traditional PC market shipments totaled 73.8 million units during the quarter. Cooling demand and uneven supply have contributed to a year-over-year contraction of 15.5%. However, shipment volumes remain well above pre-pandemic levels when PC volumes were largely driven by commercial refreshes due to the looming end of support for Windows 7. Tablet shipments were down 8.7% year over year in the third quarter of 2022, totaling 38.7 million units. This was the fifth straight quarter of decline for the tablet market. Chromebook shipments also struggled in the quarter, falling to 4.5 million units and a year-over-year decline of 32.4%. Both the tablet and Chromebook markets have now shifted from supply constrained industries to ones that are demand challenged as consumer and education spending has slowed in the face of economic uncertainties.
PC consumer demand has remained muted though promotional activity from the likes of Apple and other players has helped soften the fall and reduce channel inventory by a couple weeks across the board. Supply has also reacted to the new lows by reducing orders with Apple being the only exception as their third quarter supply increased to make up for lost orders stemming from the lockdowns in China during the second quarter.
In the tablet market, Chinese vendors continue to do well in emerging markets where there is low-end demand. Sanctions from many vendors also enabled Chinese vendors like Huawei to perform well in the Russian market. Meanwhile, the emergence of low-priced Chinese OEMs like Realme, Xiaomi, Oppo and others, has created severe competition in the lower range devices. However, these gains still couldn't offset the decline experienced by the main tablet vendors.
Chromebooks also face several challenges in the industry, not all of which are because of limitations to the platform. Chromebooks are believed to continue to play a fundamental role in personal computing, and ultimately grow in presence compared to other existing platforms, but the growth will continue to be tempered as the industry adapts to this new environment, we are all living in. We have seen many of the large PC brands prioritize around opportunities within the Windows PC space, and without their support from the supply side the Chrome market will continue to move rather slowly.
In IDC’s forecast, the outlook for PCs and tablets continues to get worse. Worldwide PC and tablet shipments are forecast to decline 11.9% in 2022 with volumes shrinking to 456.8 million units, followed by a further decline in 2023. According to the IDC traditional PCs will see shipments drop 6.5% to 281 million units in 2023 while tablets will decline 6.7% to 148 million units.
Despite the sharp decline, shipment volumes will remain above pre-pandemic levels although the market will continue to be challenged by macroeconomic headwinds, excess channel inventory, and high levels of saturation. While the PC market is expected to fare better than tablets with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just over 1% expected over the five-year forecast, tablets are expected to have a CAGR of -1.7% over the same period.
Both PC and tablet makers will struggle in the coming months as not only are volumes expected to decline, but so will average selling prices. Excess inventory in the very near term is already forcing OEMs and channels to heavily discount products and as long as the economic downturn continues, product mix will also shift from the premium segment to more mid-range products.
The on-going macroeconomic headwinds are impacting all segments of the market, but consumer is being hit the hardest. IDC did reduce its forecast for the consumer, education, and commercial markets in 2023, but is expecting a strong refresh cycle in commercial PCs as we head into 2024.