Personal Computing Devices Market Insights

2023 Q4 PCD Market Overview

Global PCD shipment volumes continued to decline in the last quarter of 2023 (4Q23) with 104.5 million units and 7.9% year over year decline. Traditional PC shipments marginally surpassed expectations in 4Q23, with nearly 67.7 million PCs shipped, down 1.8% from the prior year. Tablet shipments declined 17.4% year over year, totaling 36.8 million units. This is the largest decline in fourth quarter tablet shipments since 2016. The silver lining in all of this is that the market contractions appear to have bottomed out, and growth is expected in 2024. For calendar year 2023, worldwide PCD shipments totaled 388.7 million units, a decline of 16.1% compared to 2022.

Despite the outperformance in PCs, the 4Q23 results for traditional PCs were the 8th consecutive quarter of year-on-year volume contractions. The holiday quarter shipments also marked the lowest fourth quarter volume since 4Q2006, underscoring a market showing caution amidst weak demand and reliance on substantial promotions. The industry witnessed unprecedented consecutive declines, marking a stark departure from historical trends tracked since 1995. In 2022, the volume plummeted by 16.5% compared to the previous year, and an additional 13.7% contraction was recorded in 2023 compared to 2022. This downturn, unparalleled in the industry's recorded history, reflects the aftermath of the significant surge in PC purchases driven by the COVID-19 pandemic. The top vendors in the industry remain largely unchanged, and just like the overall market, they too have seen unusual quarterly growth swings. The brands that are positioned better within the commercial segment are likely to have more confidence heading into 2024, but technological advances should create opportunity for both commercial and consumer.

On the tablet side, with no significant improvements to the economy and consumers allocating their money to things beyond consumer electronics, the product category may not be very high on the priority list. Project delays and spending freezes have also led to purchase postponement through much of 2023. 2024 is expected to show some rebound opportunities, provided the year is more economically sound. However, overall challenges remain in the tablet market, and technological advances around AI will likely focus more on the PC and smartphone for the next two years, but tablets will increasingly become part of that conversation. Apple managed to retain its top spot in the tablet market, despite a notable decline in shipments for both the fourth quarter (-29.3%) and the full year (-19.8%). While this caused some erosion in Apple's 4Q23 market share, its full-year share was stable at more than 37% of the market. Samsung remained in second place with somewhat better results and little change in its market share for the quarter and the year. Xiaomi and Huawei both saw solid growth in the fourth quarter – 35.0% and 21.2% respectively. Xiaomi’s aggressive marketing and expanding footprint worldwide helped the company to displace Amazon from the top 5 in 4Q23 while Huawei posted the best results among the top 5 companies for the full year, with shipments declining just 4.0% year over year.

In 2024, as the global economy nears recovery, so will the PCD market with global shipments forecast to reach 398.6 million units, up 2.6% from the prior year. While vendors focused on clearing inventory in 2023, IDC expects 2024 to be an expansion year with the introduction of AI PCs, which will ultimately drive the PC market forward to 292.2 million units in 2028 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4% over the 2024–2028 forecast period. Growth is expected to slowly ramp up over the year along with the availability of AI PCs, which will coincide with the beginning of a commercial refresh cycle in 2025. Commercial buyers, both enterprise and educational, are on the cusp of a refresh cycle that begins later this year and reaches its peak in 2025. Many of these buyers are expected to be among the first in terms of AI PC adoption. The presence of on-device AI capabilities is not likely to lead to an increase in the PC installed base, but it will certainly lead to a growth in average selling prices.

Data table for "Historical PCD Market Share" chart

Quarter	Desktop	Detachable Tablet	Notebook	Slate Tablet	Workstation
2022Q4	19,690,238	26,151,216	47,506,138	18,431,114	1,744,412
2023Q1	17,487,069	15,219,111	39,780,323	15,403,370	1,612,574
2023Q2	17,398,307	14,812,288	43,984,947	13,350,231	1,693,476
2023Q3	18,627,506	18,205,858	50,045,733	14,660,106	1,827,900
2023Q4	18,701,875	21,421,513	47,151,893	15,416,176	1,851,436

Data table for "Forecast PCD Market Share" chart

Year	Desktop	Detachable Tablet	DT & Datacenter WS	Mobile WS	Notebook	Slate Tablet
2024	71,374,315	74,016,307	3,125,698	4,221,978	186,678,890	59,187,470
2025	73,474,838	76,457,680	3,363,626	4,560,904	198,540,098	59,040,218
2026	72,754,072	77,538,577	3,466,526	4,767,707	204,988,650	59,138,373
2027	72,987,029	77,408,031	3,538,190	4,870,668	209,276,038	58,506,448
2028	73,186,672	77,720,078	3,588,959	4,929,555	210,532,235	58,096,828