Generative AI (GenAI) is accelerating how much data organizations generate, straining storage and governance frameworks built for a slower-growth era. Most GenAI-using organizations now expect increases in data volume over the next two years, and infrastructure and governance strategies often struggle to keep pace.

The scale of the challenge

According to IDC’s Global DataSphere, consumers and organizations worldwide will generate more than 274.4 zettabytes (ZB) of data in 2026 alone. That figure is forecast to nearly triple to 718.5 ZB in 2030, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.9%. Enterprise data is growing significantly faster than consumer data (31.1% CAGR versus 13.5%), and it matters most here because it’s the data organizations are responsible for governing and protecting, and expect to get value from. It’s also the data most directly implicated in AI workloads.

Storage is expanding in parallel. IDC’s Global StorageSphere shows the installed base of storage capacity roughly doubling, from about 13 ZB in 2026 to more than 26 ZB in 2030. Even before accounting for AI, the enterprise data challenge was already heightened and the governance surface area was already growing faster than most organizations could manage.

The AI inflection point: What IT leaders are telling us

In IDC’s 2026 Worldwide Data Utilization Survey, 81.7% of the 714 GenAI-using respondents said they expect GenAI to increase their organization’s data volume over the next two years. Only 4.8% expect a decrease.

Of those anticipating an increase, 47.7% expect data volumes to grow by 25% or more, and 13.4% expect growth exceeding 50%.

Much of what GenAI produces is ephemeral, and a share of AI-generated content replaces existing workflows. In some cases, GenAI can reduce data volumes, such as by eliminating raw footage through synthetic generation, or by converting unstructured data into structured, actionable formats that can then be selectively retained or deleted.

These dynamics leave the overall growth trajectory intact. For organizations running active GenAI programs, operational telemetry, model logs, RAG corpora, and fine-tuning data sets can add up in ways that initial planning assumptions rarely account for.

Why GenAI drives data growth

There are at least four distinct layers, and the net effect varies by industry, organization, use case, and deployment maturity:

  • Model training and fine-tuning data: Customizing models on proprietary documents, transaction records, or customer interactions creates derivative data sets that must be stored and governed, including every version.
  • Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) corpora: Every document ingested into a RAG pipeline generates an embedding stored in a vector index, and that corpus needs ongoing refresh. RAG can also have a reduction effect by lessening the need to retain full-length source materials indefinitely.
  • AI-generated output data: Much of it is ephemeral, and only finalized outputs tend to be stored, but where compliance mandates retention, the footprint grows predictably over time.
  • Operational and observability data: Every inference request generates metadata, including prompts, outputs, latency, and token consumption. This layer tends to be underestimated in early planning, and agentic AI compounds it with richer, more continuous logs and reasoning traces.

The governance and infrastructure gaps

Knowing that data volumes will grow is not the same as being prepared for it. IDC’s research points to three structural gaps:

  • The governance gap: Most frameworks were built for structured, human-generated data. AI-generated content often falls outside them, creating compliance exposure in regulated industries.
  • The storage architecture gap: AI inference, training, and RAG pipelines need high-throughput access, low-latency embedding lookups, and cost-efficient tiering for training archives. Organizations that haven’t revisited their architecture may pay a performance or cost penalty.
  • The retention and life-cycle gap: Retention policies at most organizations predate the GenAI era, and keeping a prompt-response pair, a fine-tuning data set, or an embedding raises questions those policies never anticipated.

None of these gaps is insurmountable, but they widen quietly in the background while organizations focus on deploying AI.

Volume isn’t value: Why runaway data is harder to use

There’s a second cost to letting data volumes outrun your strategy: the value you never get out of the data. Value depends on how effectively data becomes insight or advantage. Vast quantities of poorly structured, unlabeled, or siloed data may hold almost no practical value despite their volume, so every RAG index, fine-tuning corpus, and log stream that no one has cataloged or assigned an owner is data you hold but cannot use.

Beyond the prompt: What to do next

Most GenAI-using organizations expect data volumes to rise. The open question is whether infrastructure and governance strategies are built for that reality. Preparing takes a deliberate, systematic approach, and these five steps are the place to start:

  • Audit the AI data footprint before it becomes unmanageable. Inventory training sets, fine-tuning corpora, RAG indexes, and telemetry, including where each lives and who owns it.
  • Extend data governance explicitly to AI data assets, with updated classification, retention, and lineage tracking, and engage legal and compliance early.
  • Align storage infrastructure planning with the AI road map by developing capacity plans together with AI and data science teams.
  • Revisit retention policies with AI data types explicitly in scope.
  • Model the economics of AI data storage across cloud and on-premises options. Cloud is growing nearly four times faster than noncloud, but high-volume, persistent data may be more cost effective on-premises or in colocation over a multiyear horizon.
Adam Wright

Adam Wright - Senior Research Manager, Storage and Data Management, Enterprise Infrastructure

Adam Wright is a Senior Research Manager within IDC’s enterprise infrastructure global research domain and part of the storage and data management subdomain. He leads IDC’s Global DataSphere and Global StorageSphere research. The Global DataSphere measures the total volume of…

More than 12 frontier AI developers have published voluntary safety frameworks with widely varying thresholds, inconsistent evaluation cadences, and no independent verification requirement. The EU AI Act’s maximum fine for general-purpose AI providers, 3% of global annual turnover or €15 million, whichever is higher, became enforceable August 2, 2026. An autonomous coding agent operated unsupervised for approximately one week before its own developer identified and attributed it. These describe the current operating environment for every CISO who has approved an AI integration in the past 18 months.

The structural problem is architectural, and vendor assurance alone does not resolve it. System prompts, safety fine-tuning, and content filters live inside the same weights, context window, and inference pipeline the model uses for every other output. They can be argued with, role-played around, encoded past, or overridden by a sufficiently creative prompt. Prompt injection and tool-calling exploits are now a standing category of incident response. A better system prompt is still inside the boundary.

What the enforcement layer is and what it must do

The right mental model is the content delivery network and web application firewall pattern. A CDN and WAF inspect and act on traffic before it reaches the origin server. The origin has no vote and no visibility into the decision. The same logic applies to AI: the model is the origin server, isolated with no network path to your IT estate and no view of the policy engine, logs, or configuration. The enforcement layer sits at the edge, verifying identity, inspecting requests, applying policy, mediating responses, and logging every interaction before anything reaches or returns from the model.

Five control layers are required. Missing any one leaves an exploitable gap:

  • Identity and access: Every request, human, application, or agent, is authenticated against your enterprise identity provider. The model inherits the calling user’s actual entitlements through on-behalf-of token exchange. A jailbreak or injection attempt is bounded by what the caller was already permitted to do.
  • Request inspection: Every inbound prompt and tool-call parameter is screened for policy violations, data-classification conflicts, and injection patterns before the model processes them. This runs outside the model, so the model cannot override it.
  • Policy enforcement as code: Business rules, regulatory constraints, and data-handling requirements run as code in the enforcement layer, not as instructions the model is asked to follow.
  • Response mediation: Every outbound response and tool-call authorization is screened, redacted, or blocked regardless of what the model produced. The model’s own judgment about its output is not the final word.
  • Immutable audit with a kill switch: Every interaction is logged outside the model’s environment with no model write access to the audit store. The kill switch operates at three grains, session, user or application, and full deployment, without the model’s cooperation, and is held by a role separate from the administrator who configures policy.

Separation is a technical property that must be demonstrable in an architecture diagram, not asserted in a terms-of-service clause. Three properties define genuine separation: no network path from the model to the policy engine, audit store, or configuration; no write access to its own logs; and no credentials to any of those systems. A gateway the model can reconfigure or disable provides no meaningful separation.

Identity parity: extending the plane you already run

The identity architecture for an enforcement layer extends the conditional access, MFA, and risk-based policy programs already running in your enterprise, applied to every model, agent, and tool in the same way they govern human access. Each model and agent holds its own scoped, least-privilege identity, revoked at session end or policy trip. On-behalf-of token exchange means the model acts within the calling user’s entitlements, with no standing service account for an attacker reaching the model to inherit.

CISOs should note the ServiceNow trajectory. With the Veza acquisition closed March 2026 and Armis closed April 2026, ServiceNow is positioning itself as a competitor to Entra ID for identity at scale, including machine and AI agent identities. This is a meaningful consolidation in the non-human identity governance market. The enforcement layer must be identity-provider neutral to preserve architecture optionality as this market evolves.

The kill switch: specify it before you need it

A kill switch is a first-response instrument and should be specified with the same precision as a network block or credential revocation. Three granularities matter:

  • Session grain: Suspends or throttles a single conversation or agent run. Targeted, reversible, lowest blast radius.
  • User or application grain: Cuts off one identity or one integration. Appropriate when anomalous behavior is attributable to a specific caller or integration.
  • Deployment grain: Halts every model session simultaneously. Reserved for the scenario where the model itself, the provider’s infrastructure, or a systemic policy failure requires immediate full stop.

The kill switch must function without the model provider’s cooperation, because the scenario requiring activation may involve the provider’s infrastructure being unavailable or compromised. It addresses future actions. Rollback addresses what already happened: the sent message and the emptied database. Both are required. Kill-switch triggers should be defined in advance, sustained policy violation rate, a DLP match, an anomalous tool-call sequence, so activation is a policy-driven operational decision. Rehearse it on your incident-response drill cadence.

Single models and agent swarms: one enforcement pattern

The same five control layers and the same five questions apply across the full deployment spectrum, from a single model call to a multi-agent swarm. Who is calling? What are they asking for? Is it allowed? Is the response safe to return? Is it logged? In a single model call, a missed policy violation affects one response. In a multi-agent workflow with no human reviewing each step, that same violation can cascade across dozens of tool calls before anyone sees it.

The hub-and-spoke gateway architecture deploys enforcement at the right layer. A central hub authors policy, stores identity federation, audit records, and session context. Spoke gateways enforce policy locally near each resource. The hub never touches a request directly. The Autonomous Action Runtime Management specification (AARM), now donated to the Cloud Security Alliance with more than 100 adopters, provides the five-outcome decision framework for each action point: allow, deny, modify, step-up to a human, or defer pending more context.

Four gaps in hub-and-spoke require explicit CISO assessment:

  • Chain-level risk: Individual calls may look harmless while a sequence pushes an agent outside its authorized role. Require your vendor to demonstrate policy evaluation over chains of calls as well as individual requests.
  • Fail behavior under load: Failing open at peak volume means enforcement stops when it is needed most. Require documented, configurable fail-open or fail-closed behavior per integration.
  • Coverage depends on inventory: The hub governs only traffic routed through it. Require vendors to demonstrate how AI assets that bypass the hub are detected and reported.
  • MCP-only visibility: Skills, hooks, plugins, and direct API calls move alongside MCP traffic. Evaluate R20 and R22 together as a combined coverage assessment.

Enforcement is not governance: the full program

An enforcement layer governs every individual interaction in real time. A complete AI risk program requires additional capabilities that must be funded and owned separately:

  • AI inventory: Every model, agent, and MCP server accounted for, including embedded models in purchased software.
  • Model lifecycle management: Version changes and capability-tier upgrades governed before they propagate to production workloads. R26 (proposed) addresses the gap where behavioral drift within a tier can silently undermine policies verified against a previous model version.
  • Third-party provider scoring: Every provider scored across five dimensions on a continuous basis, rescored on safety-framework updates and material incidents, as well as at annual renewal.
  • Continuous control assurance: The enforcement layer stays configured and working.
  • Runtime risk monitoring and trust scoring: Behavioral drift detected and translated into a live score per model or agent that feeds back into access decisions at the enforcement hub.
  • Board-level reporting: Enforcement telemetry translated into risk language a governance committee can act on.

Provider risk scoring drives three governance gates. Below the onboarding threshold, any new frontier AI dependency requires explicit executive risk acceptance. The contract gate embeds score thresholds as triggers for capability-tier change notice and delivery of evaluation summaries. The exit gate means score deterioration triggers a formal alternative-provider review before the next renewal cycle.

The 90-day CISO action plan

Table 1 organizes the most critical actions across architecture, procurement, and governance by 30-day horizon. Architecture and procurement actions run in parallel with governance actions; neither track waits for the other.

TABLE 1: 90-Day CISO Action Plan for AI Enforcement Layer Deployment

HorizonArchitecture and ProcurementGovernance and Program
Days 1-30Demand the architecture diagram from every current and prospective AI vendor: deployment boundary, model-to-policy-engine separation, kill-switch role assignment. Inventory every model, agent, and MCP server, including embedded models in purchased software.Score every frontier model provider against 5 dimensions: safety-framework maturity, evaluation transparency, incident disclosure history, regulatory posture, and concentration risk. Set the onboarding threshold below which any new dependency requires executive risk acceptance.
Days 31-60Identify your 3 highest-risk AI integrations. Pilot a hub-and-spoke enforcement gateway outside the model for at least one. Require on-behalf-of delegated identity and a split-role kill switch for every new AI procurement.Separate the configuration and operations roles for the kill switch in your identity provider. Define kill-switch triggers in writing: sustained policy violation rate, DLP match, anomalous tool-call sequence.
Days 61-90Send the 25 enforcement-layer requirements (R1-R25) and 5 contract terms (C1-C5) to every current and prospective AI vendor. Embed C1-C5 into vendor contracts before the next renewal cycle.Fund AI governance as its own program. Rehearse the kill switch at all 3 granularities (session, user/application, full deployment) in a tabletop exercise. Establish the governance loop cadence with documented ownership.

Source: IDC, 2026

The 26 enforcement-layer requirements: your RFP foundation

Table 2 consolidates all 25 published requirements (R1-R25) plus IDC’s proposed R26, which addresses a gap in the current set: advance notification of model updates that materially change behavior in policy-sensitive areas. This gap is distinct from C2 (capability-tier change notice), which covers tier-level changes. R26 addresses behavioral drift within a tier, which can silently undermine policies verified against a previous model version.

For each requirement: mark it Must or Should based on your deployment risk profile. Ask for the evidence listed. Verify in a pilot. A failed Must is a no-go. Apply the five contract terms (C1-C5) to every current and prospective AI vendor contract, covering model provenance disclosure, capability-tier change notice, safety-framework documentation access, incident disclosure timelines, and continuity planning.

TABLE 2: AI Enforcement Layer Requirements R1-R26 and Contract Terms C1-C5

Req.RequirementPriorityEvidence to Request
R1Architecture diagram showing deployment boundary and admin rolesMustEnforcement runs outside the model provider environment, under your control
R2Network diagram and independent test results confirming separationMustNo network path from model to policy engine, audit store, or configuration
R3Permission model for audit store and policy repositoryMustModel has no write access to its own logs and cannot alter governing rules
R4Signed policy update design, key custody docs, live rejection demoMustPolicy updates are cryptographically signed; spokes reject unverified updates
R5Log-integrity design and tamper-detection demoMustAudit logs are append-only and hash-chained; tampering is detectable
R6Native IdP integration (Entra ID or equivalent), not a services add-onMustConditional access and MFA for AI identities, out of the box
R7Token-flow diagram and an access-denied testMustOn-behalf-of token exchange so model acts within calling user’s entitlements
R8Identity inventory and live revocation demoMustEach model, agent, and tool has a scoped, least-privilege identity
R9Detection coverage docs, test results, and latency figuresMustPrompts and tool-call parameters screened for violations, classification conflicts, injection
R10Policy-as-code samples, change history, and test harnessMustBusiness and regulatory rules enforced as code, not as model instructions
R11Block and redact demo on seeded sensitive dataMustOutbound content and tool-call authorizations screened before reaching consumer
R12Sample log record, retention policy, export optionsMustEvery request and response logged immutably, timestamped, attributable, outside model environment
R13Live demo, measured time to effect at each granularityMustKill switch works at session, user/application, and deployment grain without model cooperation
R14Rollback runbook and supported systems listShould*Defined rollback for actions already taken (*upgrade to Must for write-transaction deployments)
R15Role model and PAM setup in your identity providerMustConfig and operations admins are separate; only operations holds the kill switch
R16Reference architecture and spoke deployment optionsMustHub-and-spoke: policy, identity, and audit at hub; enforcement at spokes near the resource
R17Connector onboarding guide and test resultsMustConnectors inherit enforcement identity, access, and audit controls
R18Session-context and chain-evaluation roadmap; AARM conformanceShould*Intent-drift evaluation with allow, deny, modify, step-up, defer outcomes (*Must for chained agentic workflows)
R19Failure-mode test results and capacity benchmarksMustFail-open or fail-closed behavior documented and configurable; load-balanced spokes
R20Coverage matrix and unrouted-asset reportMustDeclared coverage across MCP, skills, plugins, direct APIs; unrouted assets reported
R21Supported-provider list and migration termsMustModel neutral: supports models from multiple providers without enforcement tied to one API
R22Inventory integration and unrouted-asset reportMustConsumes your AI inventory; reports traffic and assets not routed through enforcement layer
R23Signal interface; measured time from score change to access changeShouldAccepts live trust score per model and agent as a cached signal driving access decisions
R24Telemetry schema and GRC or CCM platform integrationsShouldFeeds audit and telemetry to governance for monitoring, drift detection, and re-assessment
R25Sample compliance report mapped to your control frameworkMustProduces request-level evidence regulators and boards can use
R26Update notification process docs; pilot-first option for policy-sensitive integrationsMust (proposed)Advance notice of model updates that materially change behavior in areas covered by deployed policy rules

Source: IDC, 2026

Three gates every CISO should establish now

The requirements above translate directly into three governance gates that convert procurement policy into enforceable controls:

  • Procurement gate: Below your provider-score threshold, any new frontier AI dependency requires executive risk acceptance before contracting. This gate applies to embedded models in purchased software as well as direct model API contracts.
  • Architecture gate: Before any AI integration goes to production, require the vendor to produce an architecture diagram showing the deployment boundary, separation between the model and your policy engine, and the kill-switch role assignment.
  • Contract gate: Score deterioration triggers a formal alternative-provider review and activates notice clauses in existing contracts. C2 covers capability-tier changes. R26 covers behavioral drift within a tier.

“

A model’s restraint is a courtesy, not a control. The enforcement layer must be outside the model’s environment, outside its reach, and outside its ability to reconfigure or disable. Anything less is an architecture diagram that says: trust us

— Philip D. Harris, CISSP, CCSK, Research Director, Governance, Risk, and Compliance Solutions, IDC

Philip D. Harris, CISSP, CCSK

Philip D. Harris, CISSP, CCSK - Research Director, Governance, Risk, and Compliance (GRC) Solutions

Phil Harris is Research Director for GRC Solutions at IDC, where he develops and promotes IDC's point of view on risk, advisory, privacy, and compliance services and software. He conducts research on business strategies and the impact of relevant offerings…

随着人形机器人和具身智能的发展,灵巧手的竞争正从自由度、抓握力等硬件参数,延伸至精细操作、感知控制及与具身智能模型的协同能力。当前,人形机器人配套、科研教育和具身智能数据采集是值得关注的主要需求方向,工业等应用仍处于探索阶段。未来,灵巧手市场不会仅由某一种驱动路线决定,厂商能否将硬件、模型、数据与操作技能有效结合,并在真实任务中实现稳定、可靠且具有成本效益的操作,将影响其商业化进程。

IDC预计,2026年全球灵巧手出货量约2.5万台,不含厂商向自有机器人产品的内部配套出货。其中,中国厂商出货量占全球市场的比例预计超过85%,在全球灵巧手市场中占据重要地位。随着人形机器人研发、具身智能数据采集及科研教育需求持续释放,灵巧手市场仍处于发展初期,其后续增长将受到机器人应用进展、产品成本及商业化落地速度等因素的共同影响。

从自由度到操作能力,技术竞争不止于硬件参数

目前,灵巧手主要采用腱绳驱动、直驱、连杆驱动及混合驱动等技术路线。不同方案在结构紧凑性、灵活性、力量传递、成本和维护等方面各有取舍,尚未形成统一的技术方向。技术路线的选择不仅取决于硬件设计,也与目标任务和应用需求密切相关。

在硬件参数之外,触觉感知和操作控制同样值得关注。巧手需要感知接触状态、作用力及物体变化,并据此调整动作。目前,触觉传感器在信号稳定性、一致性和感知精度等方面仍有改进空间。自由度较高并不必然意味着操作能力更强,感知与控制能力同样重要。

目前,灵巧手正逐步从自由度、抓握力等单项指标,延伸至可控性、精细操作能力,以及与机器人本体和具身智能模型的协同表现。未来,不同技术路线的竞争结果,可能更多取决于其对具体任务的适配程度,而非单一参数的高低。

灵巧手需求集中于人形机器人配套与科研,工业应用落地仍需验证

当前,人形机器人配套、科研教育,以及具身智能模型研发与数据采集是灵巧手的主要需求方向。与此同时,工业制造、物流等场景也在探索灵巧手的应用潜力,特别是在复杂抓取、物体姿态调整和多品种操作等任务中。相比之下,工业制造、商业服务等场景仍处于应用探索阶段。

在复杂抓取、物体姿态调整和多品种操作等任务中,灵巧手具有一定的应用潜力,但并不意味着能够全面替代传统夹爪。对于物体形态固定、任务重复性高、节拍要求严格的生产环节,传统夹爪往往具有结构简单、成本较低和易于维护等优势。灵巧手的价值更多体现在需要多指协同、精细接触或较强操作灵活性的任务中,其实际优势仍需结合具体工艺进行评估。

从研发样机走向持续运行,灵巧手仍需解决可靠性、环境适应性和维护成本等问题。复杂的机械结构、多关节驱动及传感器集成增加了设计与维护难度,粉尘、接触磨损及长期运行也可能影响产品表现。对于实际应用而言,单次成功完成动作并不足够,用户更关心机器人能否在真实环境中持续、稳定地完成任务,以及由此带来的效率提升能否覆盖设备、维护和集成成本。

灵巧手商业化的关键关键不只是能否完成特定动作,更在于能否在真实场景中稳定运行并持续完成任务。

灵巧手未来三年将从“路线探索”进入“工程化竞争”

IDC认为,未来三年灵巧手市场的竞争将围绕以下几个方向展开。

市场需求将从研发与数据采集向具体任务应用拓展。 短期内,科研教育、人形机器人配套及具身智能数据采集仍是值得关注的需求方向。随着机器人应用探索深入,工业制造、物流、服务等场景则需要进一步验证其实际应用价值。灵巧手能否在复杂抓取、精细操作和多品种作业中体现出相较传统夹爪的优势,将影响其应用拓展速度。

技术竞争从硬件参数转向结构设计与综合操作能力。 腱绳驱动、直驱、连杆驱动及混合驱动各有适用条件,短期内不同技术路线仍将并存。产品竞争不仅取决于自由度和抓握力,还涉及电机、电控、减速器、丝杠等核心部件的设计与优化,以及结构紧凑性、驱动性能和可靠性之间的平衡。在此基础上,视触觉感知、精细控制及与机器人本体和具身智能模型的协同能力,也将影响灵巧手的实际操作表现。单纯增加自由度,并不必然带来更好的操作效果。

竞争从硬件本体向模型、数据与技能协同延伸。除灵巧手本体外,操作模型、数据资源、技能库及开发工具也逐渐成为厂商布局的组成部分。这些能力有望帮助用户开展模型训练、任务开发与技能复用,减少应用开发工作。未来,厂商之间的差异不仅体现在硬件性能上,也将体现在能否将硬件、模型、数据和技能有效结合,以及能否将这些能力转化为稳定的任务执行效果。

可靠性、成本和交付能力将影响市场竞争格局。 随着用户从研发测试走向实际应用,灵巧手厂商需要解决长期运行、产品一致性、维护和成本控制等问题。专业灵巧手厂商、本体厂商自研团队及传统末端执行器厂商将继续参与市场竞争,但不同类型厂商的优势和商业化路径可能有所差异。

总体来看,未来三年灵巧手市场仍将处于多种技术路线并存、应用持续验证的阶段。行业竞争的关键不在于某一种驱动路线率先胜出,而在于厂商能否围绕具体任务,将结构设计、核心部件、感知控制、模型和数据有效结合,并在操作性能、可靠性与综合成本之间取得平衡。 灵巧手能否从研发与测试走向更广泛的商业应用,最终仍需由真实场景中的任务表现来检验。

IDC相关研究

灵巧手正处于从“技术路线探索”向“工程化竞争”过渡的关键拐点。在这条拥挤的赛道上,谁能率先跨越软硬件协同与商业化落地的鸿沟,谁就能掌握下一阶段的主动权。

作为全球领先的IT市场研究与咨询机构,IDC在机器人、具身智能及核心零部件领域拥有深厚的研究积累。我们不仅关注底层技术路线的演进,更致力于帮助客户洞察商业化落地路径、市场规模预测及竞争格局。

针对灵巧手市场,IDC可为您提供:

  • 市场全景洞察:全球及中国灵巧手出货量预测与需求结构分析。
  • 技术路线评估:腱绳/直驱/连杆等不同驱动路线的优劣势比对与适配场景研究。
  • 竞争格局研判:头部厂商及跨界玩家(本体厂商、传统夹爪厂商)的战略布局与优劣势分析。
  • 定制化咨询:面向投资机构、本体厂商及终端客户的定制化市场进入策略与尽调支持。

进一步沟通

IDC将持续关注灵巧手市场的需求变化、技术路线、厂商布局与应用进展,并通过后续研究进一步分析其市场规模、竞争格局及商业化趋势。如需了解更多IDC机器人研究内容或定制化市场分析,欢迎与IDC中国分析师团队联系。请点击此处与我们联系。

Lily Li

Lily Li - Research Manager

Lily is the Research Manager for China Robotics and Embodied Intelligence, specializing in market research on embodied intelligent robots. She has long focused on the development trends of China’s embodied intelligence robotics industry, systematically studying the evolution of robot hardware,…

五家代表厂商入选,行业整体仍处发展早期,可靠性与工程闭环能力成核心竞争标尺

工业AI正在进入 “ 价值兑现” 的深水区,工控编程作为工业自动化领域门槛最高、价值最厚重的场景之一,正成为工业智能体落地的核心攻坚方向。随着生成式 AI 与智能体技术向运营技术(OT)领域渗透,工控智能体正从早期的代码补全、问答助手,逐步演进为可调用专业工程软件、交付可验证工程资产的工程协作者。

国际数据公司(IDC)于近日发布首份《中国工业控制智能体技术评估,2026》(Doc#CHC54370326,2026 年 10 月)报告。报告首次对中国市场工控编程智能体产品开展系统性技术评估,从工程能力、产品能力、业务价值、交付保障四大层面共十一项核心维度切入,对倍福、华龙讯达、万昇智能、西门子、远舢智能(按照拼音首字母顺序排列)五家代表厂商的产品进行深度评估,并给出行业平均能力基准,为制造企业选型与厂商产品迭代提供参考依据。

一、工控智能体重新定义工程交付范式

IDC 将工控智能体定义为:面向可编程逻辑控制器(PLC)、分布式控制系统(DCS)、监督控制和数据采集(SCADA)等相关工程控制软件,能够理解工艺需求、点位表、图纸和既有工程上下文,调用工程工具完成控制代码、硬件配置、人机界面(HMI)/SCADA 资产、验证和交付任务,并在人类工程师监督下形成可审查闭环的工业智能体。

其核心价值不只是生成一段结构化文本代码,而是系统性减少工程师在需求整理、对象创建、批量变更、编译修复、测试和文档交接中的重复劳动,重塑工程交付的效率边界。

当前中国工控智能体市场仍处于早期发展阶段。市场上产品名称虽普遍使用 Copilot、CoAgent 或 Agent,但实际能力边界差异显著:部分产品已形成正式商业版本并实现全球销售,部分处于客户试用阶段,还有部分方案仍以内部测试、定制项目形式验证能力。本次评估划定的核心市场边界为:产品是否能够生成可导入、可编译、可验证和可维护的控制工程。

二、十一项维度立体评估,五家厂商代表四条技术路径

本次评估围绕 “能否把工控编程能力、工程化能力和实际价值连接为可交付的工程闭环” 这一核心命题,设置十一项独立评分维度,覆盖工程需求与项目理解、控制代码与工程资产生成、工具执行与工程闭环、验证质量与工程可靠性、工程集成与开放扩展、安全可信与变更治理、产品化成熟度、工程与生产运营协同、实际应用与价值验证、部署与使用体验、客户服务与交付保障。所有维度采用 1-5 分独立评价,不设置权重、不计算综合分,聚焦产品当前可交付、可验证的真实能力。

本次研究从工控、工业软件与智能体供应商中筛选出五家具备中国市场产品与项目基础的代表厂商,对应行业四条主流产品演进路径:

  • 原厂 IDE 深度集成路径:西门子 Eigen Engineering Agent、倍福 TwinCAT 3 CoAgent for Engineering,依托原生工程软件生态实现深度工程操作
  • 原生智能体驱动工程平台路径:万昇智能 WasomCodeX V2.0,以智能体为中心重构工业 IDE 与工程工作流
  • 跨品牌场景化方案路径:远舢智能 INOS Claw 智立方,面向异构存量工厂提供跨系统、跨行业的场景化智能体方案
  • 自主控制器 + 原生工程环境路径:华龙讯达 JIC IAP 内置 AI 智能编程助手,基于自有控制器与开发环境形成全栈协同

整体来看,领先产品已经能够在明确的平台与任务边界内显著提升工程效率,并开始从 “回答代码怎么写” 走向 “在工程环境中完成完整任务”。

三、行业平均基准:基础能力初具,工程闭环仍是核心短板

基于全市场广泛调研形成的行业平均能力基准显示,当前中国工控智能体整体仍处于发展早期:需求理解、基础代码生成和传统服务支持已形成初步能力,但多数产品仍停留在建议输出、片段生成或有限工具调用阶段。工程执行闭环、独立行为验证、异常与回归测试、标准化商业产品形态以及可量化的投资回报,是当前行业最突出的能力短板。

IDC 2026 年离散制造业智能体功能调研数据显示,制造企业评价智能体时,82% 的受访者优先关注可靠性,70% 关注任务准确率,均显著高于对生成速度的关注。在工控场景中,控制程序直接关联设备运行、生产节拍与人员安全,“可靠、可审查、可回滚” 是产品从演示 Demo 走向生产级应用的核心前提。

四、五大趋势定义工控智能体下一阶段演进

IDC 判断,未来 2-3 年工控智能体将从以代码建议为主的辅助工具,逐步演进为能够理解工程目标、调用多类工具并交付可验证结果的工程协作者,市场将呈现五大核心趋势:

1. 工程 IDE 向 “智能体友好型” 演进,开放生态成关键变量

原厂编程 IDE 将从面向工程师图形化操作,同步升级为支持智能体可靠调用的开放平台。命令行接口(CLI)、应用程序接口(API)、软件开发工具包(SDK)、模型上下文协议(MCP)及稳定对象模型,将全面覆盖项目读取、对象创建、差异比对、编译测试、版本管理与失败恢复,并配套细粒度权限与审计能力。开放程度将直接决定产品能否融入企业已有的 AI 工具链。

2. 工程知识资产化,多模态工程闭环释放长期价值

企业积累的标准功能块、设备模板、命名规范、画面库、工艺包与历史缺陷库,是工控智能体最核心的差异化资产。产品竞争将从 “生成代码的能力” 转向 “理解与复用客户工程资产的能力”;读取图纸、文档只是起点,更高价值在于将多模态工程资料转化为可追溯的 PLC 变量、I/O 配置与 HMI 对象,实现增量更新的完整工程闭环。

3. 历史项目复用与跨平台迁移,成规模化落地核心攻坚点

智能体的规模化应用,核心在于能否从历史项目中识别可复用的控制结构、设备模板与测试用例,并在新项目中完成参数化改造。面向多品牌共存的存量工厂,跨平台迁移能力将成为重要差异化指标 —— 其核心不是简单语法转换,而是完整保留控制意图、库语义、通信约束、安全互锁与工程维护习惯。

4. 可审查执行与独立验证,成为生产级应用准入标准

领先产品将把任务规划、工具调用、工程差异、编译结果与测试记录全链路串联,默认预览、显式应用、权限分级、失败停止将成为生产部署的标配。行业将逐步建立独立于代码生成器的行为评测体系,覆盖正常顺控、边界条件、断连重启、传感器异常与互锁冲突等场景 —— 编译通过不等于逻辑可靠,独立行为验证将成为硬性准入要求。

5. 工程与运维逐步衔接,拓展智能体价值边界

工程智能体未来将打通运行数据,辅助故障定位、变更影响分析与维护交接,实现从 “工程交付工具” 向 “全生命周期工程协作者” 的延伸。工程侧的对象语义与运行侧的实时数据打通后,将为跨岗位协同、持续工艺优化提供新的支撑。

分析师观点

IDC 中国制造行业高级研究经理杜雁泽表示:“工控智能体的价值,不在于生成多少代码,而在于能否把工业知识、历史工程资产、专业工具和验证机制连接成可审查、可恢复、可交付的工作闭环。下一阶段,原厂 IDE 能否向智能体开放稳定接口,客户工程库能否被安全理解和复用,以及跨平台迁移和 IEC 工程规范能否进一步统一,将决定产品能否从工程师试用走向规模应用。”

更多相关研究

  • IDC MarketScape: 中国工业 AI 及智能体平台 2026 年厂商评估(IDC #CHC54110326,2026 年 9 月)
  • IDC Market Glance: 中国工业 AI 及智能体,2Q26(IDC #CHC54370226,2026 年 8 月)
  • 中国核心工业软件及工业 AI 市场预测,2026-2030(IDC #CHC53716026,2026 年 4 月)
  • IDC MarketScape: 中国工业大模型及智能体解决方案 2025 年厂商评估(IDC #CHC53013925,2025 年 9 月)
  • 中国工业智能体 (AI Agent) 市场分析及供应商推荐(IDC #CHC52296125,2025 年 6 月)
  • 中国工业大模型应用进展与展望,2025(IDC #CHC52296025,2025 年 6 月)

进一步交流

如需获取完整报告,或就工控智能体技术趋势、技术选型、落地路径展开深入沟通,欢迎联系 IDC 中国制造业研究团队。请点击此处与我们联系。

Yanze Du

Yanze Du - Senior Research Manager

Yanze Du is a senior research manager for the Manufacturing Insights group in IDC China, and he is responsible for conducting research on and analysis of the China manufacturing industry and supply chain. He is also involved in regional and…

企业级Token混合成本一年内从18.40美元/百万Token降至6.07美元,下降67%。与此同时,中国日均Token调用量从2024年初的1,000亿攀升至2026年3月的超140万亿,两年增长超1,000倍。

这就是AI时代的杰文斯悖论——效率越高,应用越广,总消耗越大。Token单价的持续下降,并没有让总支出收缩,反而打开了指数级的应用空间。IDC预测,全球活跃AI智能体将从2025年的约2,860万个增至2030年的22.16亿个。当智能可以规模化生产,核心问题已经变成:怎样用最低成本、最大效率持续产出Token?

但比GPU代际迭代更值得关注的,是另一个结构性事实:同样一批GPU,在不同网络和存储架构上,Token产出成本可以相差数倍。

水面之下:真正决定Token产出的隐性变量

行业习惯用FLOPS衡量AI基础设施。但以DeepSeek-R1推理为基准,新一代GPU平台相较上一代:每美元FLOPS提升约2倍,每GPU的Token/秒却从约90提升至约6,000(提升约65倍),每百万Token成本从约4.20美元降至约0.12美元(降低约35倍)。算力指标增长2倍,业务产出却增长数十倍?

差距从何而来?低精度计算(FP8/FP4)、RDMA/GPUDirect RDMA、投机解码、KV Cache卸载与复用、Prefill/Decode分离调度——每一项都不只是芯片层面的进步,而是基础设施层面网络与存储的系统性协同设计。

“推理冰山”的比喻恰如其分:水面之上是GPU数量和FLOPS,水面之下才是决定实际产出的变量。网络和存储,正是水面之下两个最大的杠杆。

IDC数据显示,2026年AI推理成本在企业AI预算中已超80%。一座GW级AI数据中心的四年TCO约550亿美元,其中网络和存储合计占基础设施TCO的16%-18%——不到五分之一的投资,决定了五分之四以上资产的运行效率。也就是说,网络与存储的规划失误,会被直接放大进那80%以上的推理预算里——这是最容易被忽略的一笔账。

网络:从“连接管道”到“神经系统”

传统数据中心中,网络是“管道”——把数据从A搬到B。但在Token工厂中,网络的角色已经发生质变。

MoE架构的All-to-All通信把GPU间通信从“突发”变成了“持续”;PD分离后KV Cache跨节点读写成为常态;上万推理并发下,每一次响应都要经过上百次GPU间往返。网络延迟每增加1微秒,都会在上百次通信中被放大为Token产出的直接损失。

行业实际部署数据表明:在万卡集群中,采用动态路由(AR)优化的网络带宽利用率可达约95%,传统以太网仅约60%。35个百分点的差距,等效于数千万美元的GPU投资被闲置。您的集群现在落在哪个区间?如果长期停在60%一侧,那剩下对应的闲置算力,就是最容易被忽略的成本——而它往往不是GPU买少了,是网络没跟上。

网络效率的兑现需要四个维度逐级递进:速度(微秒级延迟+800G→1.6T带宽+RDMA三步直达)、效率(动态路由+拥塞控制将利用率从60%拉升至95%)、架构(Scale-Up/Out协同+网络计算,万卡集群维持百卡水平)、能效(在约40万GPU集群中,CPO光电封装将网络功耗从72MW降至21MW,节省约70%)。

四层不是并列关系,是逐层收敛——速度决定响应体验,效率决定单次服务成本,架构决定用户规模上限,能效决定普惠服务的空间。对最终用户而言,网络性能并不是抽象的带宽和延迟指标,而是 AI 助手能否快速响应、复杂任务能否流畅完成,以及高峰期服务是否依然稳定。网络延迟降低,用户等待的时间就可能缩短;通信效率提升,意味着同样的 GPU 资源能够支撑更多请求,企业也有机会以更低的成本提供 AI 服务;架构具备良好的扩展能力,才能在用户量和任务复杂度持续增长时,避免服务质量随规模扩张而下降;而能效的改善,则有助于控制 AI 服务长期运行的成本,为更广泛的应用和更普惠的定价创造空间。

网络已从“连接配件”升级为决定Token产出速度的“神经系统”。神经系统的速度不是由最快的那段决定,而是由最慢的那段决定。

存储:从“数据仓库”到“工作台”

另一条同样重要的线索在存储侧。

KV Cache代表了一类面向推理过程的AI原生数据形态:它是派生的(由Prefill计算产生)、瞬态的(生命周期跟随一次会话或一个智能体任务)、可重算的(丢失后可通过GPU重新计算)。这三个属性意味着,传统存储为“永久保存、绝不丢失”而设计的RAID、多副本、异地灾备等机制,对KV Cache而言是额外开销。

这一认知转变是新存储范式逻辑的起点。当上下文长度达到百万级,每次推理从头计算的成本远超缓存读取——用廉价的NVMe SSD存储替代昂贵的GPU重复计算,这是“以存代算”的核心经济逻辑。

新一代AI原生存储为此做了全栈重构:KV原生接口替代传统文件/块/对象接口,I/O路径极致精简,读写延迟降至接近NVMe硬件极限;分级保护策略取代一刀切的持久化体系,优先保障吞吐与时延;智能介质选择依据数据热度在内存、SSD与通用存储间动态调度;DPU硬件卸载实现CPU与GPU的零I/O开销。如果您的存储团队仍在按“绝不丢失“的口径设计KV Cache,这部分开销就是浪费——不是存储买贵了,是设计范式用错了对象。

MLPerf基准测试显示,新一代AI原生存储推理吞吐量和能效较传统方案提升约5倍;在多厂商联合测试和VAST 测试中,首个Token生成响应时间(TTFT)分别改善约9倍和约20倍。存储不再只是模型层的附属仓库,它是与计算和网络并列的基础设施独立支柱。

一个判断:系统级协同优于单点突破

三个结构性转向正在同时发生:用“每Token成本”替代“每美元FLOPS”作为核心评估指标;网络投资应与GPU同节奏规划,而非事后补网;KV Cache应被视为独立数据类别,而非传统存储上的“特殊文件”。

三个转向叠加,是Token成本结构性坍缩的基础设施前提。

在AI从“烧钱”走向“赚钱”、从“特权”走向“普惠”的过程中,网络和存储不一定是投资额最大的两个部分,但它们是决定整个Token工厂效率上限的两个核心变量。改变任何单一层面的效率,不如打通层与层之间的协同瓶颈——这才是Token工厂隐形的天花板。

行动建议

  • 用“每Token成本”替代“每美元每秒浮点运算次数(FLOPS)”作为评估与资源配置的核心指标。
  • 网络投资与GPU同节奏规划,而非事后补网——网络占TCO不到10%,却决定45%的GPU资产效率。
  • 将KV Cache视为独立数据类别,采用KV原生接口与分层存储,实现“以存代算”。

IDC相关研究

《AI Token工厂的网络与存储加速》,Doc# CHC54979226,2026年10月

进一步交流

网络与存储如何影响Token产出成本,不同集群规模、不同推理负载下的瓶颈位置并不相同。如果您正在规划或优化AI基础设施,希望结合自身情况做一次针对性讨论,欢迎联系IDC分析师团队。我们可基于实际部署数据与TCO模型,帮您判断瓶颈落在网络四层中的哪一层、KV Cache是否该切换范式。期待与您交流。请点击此处与我们联系。

Xiangdong Hu

Xiangdong Hu - Research Director, Enterprise Research

As research director of IDC China's Enterprise Research, Steven Hu leads the China networking team in doing market research and project consulting. His team research projects include network equipment such as switches, routers, wireless, and emerging technologies including software-defined network…

过去半年,生成式AI已经带来巨大变革:代码生成成为软件工程的标配环节,内容生产从“AI辅助”走向“人机协作”,智能客服、数据分析、营销创意等场景的渗透率快速攀升。随着企业需求从”试用尝鲜”转向”生产级部署”,承接大模型能力的主流公有云服务形态——MaaS,正成为云计算市场中最具确定性的增长方向。

国际数据公司(IDC)于近日发布的《中国AI软件市场半年度追踪,26H1》报告显示,2026H1中国MaaS市场规模达到106.3亿元人民币,占中国公有云PaaS市场的比重从2025年下半年的5.2%升至21.0%,开始对既有市场格局带来颠覆性影响。

IDC认为,对于行业用户而言,MaaS已经从可选项成为业务标配。对于技术厂商而言,MaaS也正在成为不容失手的增长主阵地。

2026H1,中国MaaS市场规模及Token调用量呈现爆发式增长

2026上半年,中国MaaS市场延续并放大了2025年以来的高增长态势。按营收口径统计,市场规模达到106.3亿元人民币,同比增长889.4%。这一增速意味着市场在一年内扩张至近9倍体量,MaaS正式迈入百亿级赛道。

按调用量口径统计,2026H1全市场Token消耗量达到2,857.9万亿,同比增长约432.5%。

增长背后:模型升级、场景放量、模态扩容

·       模型迭代——旗舰升维、Flash 达标,行业渗透加速,用户盘持续扩大。​ 供给侧看,2026 上半年模型能力与成本两道门槛同步下降。旗舰层面,Qwen3.5 ,GLM-5.2等模型在推理、编程与智能体能力上持续升级,长上下文普遍迈入百万级,大模型得以进入更多行业的核心业务环节——从“辅助办公”走向“直接承担生产任务”;普惠层面,各家 Flash/轻量版本达到可用门槛,让原本对成本高度敏感的行业第一次具备了规模化调用模型的经济性。大模型的用户盘从互联网等先行行业,扩展至金融、零售、制造、政务等更广泛的行业腹地。

·       场景挖深——大并发筑底盘,三类场景接力放量。​ 互联网自身业务中的推荐系统、搜索、对话、Coding 等大并发场景,仍构成 MaaS 收入的底盘,贡献稳定。同时增量来自于三类接力场景:一是日常办公加速普及,既包括各行业的办公流程自动化,也包括以金融投研报告撰写为代表的内容生成场景;二是智能客服向更多行业渗透,其中电商与贸易企业尤为突出;三是智能终端助手、IT 自动运维等新型场景相继接入大模型。这些场景渗透率尚低、业务链条长,对更长上下文与更强推理能力的要求,使单任务调用量与客单价同步上升,正在接棒成为 MaaS 收入增长的主要来源。

·      模态扩容——视频生成模型成为MaaS市场重要第二增长曲线。​视频生成模型在上半年跨过商业化拐点:以 Seedance 2.0 为代表的新一代模型将 15 秒视频的可用率大幅提升,短剧、广告、电商内容等生产环节开始批量引入。这一趋势直接重塑了 MaaS 的市场结构:2026H1,在整体 MaaS 规模中,大语言模型占比为 47.0%,而视频生成模型调用产生的收入贡献已达 32.7%,其余“其他模态模型”占 20.2%。视频模态已实质性地成为拉动 MaaS 增长的第二极。

MaaS 已成为必争之地,各类型玩家加速涌入:

在这一背景下,2026 年各类型厂商依托自身禀赋加速涌入 MaaS 市场:

短短半年间,MaaS 在中国公有云 PaaS 市场中的份额从5.2%升至21.0%,开始对既有市场格局产生颠覆性影响。对云厂商和模型厂商而言,MaaS 已不再是云业务中的“可选项”:它既是未来几年最重要的增量来源,也直接决定下一轮云市场竞争的话语权分配——不参与,就意味着在云计算的核心地带缺席。

  • 云厂商以算力资源、完善的模型矩阵与成熟的工具链为底座,将模型服务全面纳入云产品体系,以“模型 + 算力 + 工具链”的整体方案锁定企业级市场;
  • 大模型公司凭借技术领先与快速迭代建立品牌心智,以密集的新品发布与激进定价切入企业客户,并以订阅制与生态合作将模型优势转化为平台流量;
  • 大模型推理服务商则聚焦多模型聚合与极致性价比,以推理效率和开放性卡位“多模型时代”的流量入口,承接来自头部模型的溢出需求;
  • 运营商携全国性算力布局与深厚的政企渠道资源进场,形成第四股不可忽视的力量。

模型发布、API 降价、开源开放与算力扩容在上半年密集上演,市场竞争的烈度显著升级。凭借各自的基因优势,2026上半年,火山引擎、阿里巴巴、智谱、百度等厂商取得了优势与主要市场份额。

与此同时,大语言模型仍是主要模态。技术成熟度更高、推理成本下降更快,叠加当前企业侧需求(知识问答、代码生成、Agent 编排)大多以文本为中心,共同支撑了大语言模型在调用量与营收上的绝对主导地位。也正因如此,模态内部的竞争最为激烈,阿里巴巴、智谱、火山引擎、百度等厂商构成了大语言模型市场的主要竞争力量。

模型、推理效率构建短期壁垒,算力是长期核心护城河

MaaS 的市场前景得到数据验证,参与者类型快速扩容,竞争节奏明显加快。IDC认为,MaaS厂商的竞争要素可以分两个时间维度看:

短期看,模型能力与推理效率是最直接的抓手。一方面,旗舰模型的升级仍是获客的第一杠杆,模型的效果、迭代节奏与模型矩阵的完整度,直接决定平台流量;另一方面,在模型能力趋同的区间,推理效率成为决定性价比的关键——推理框架优化、PD分离与大规模集群调度能力,决定了厂商在同等算力下可对外供给的有效Token吞吐,也决定了价格战的底气。这一阶段的竞争本质是”效率战”。

长期看,算力是难以绕开的核心护城河:算力的获取规模、单位成本/算力性价比、异构适配能力与供应链确定性,构成了厂商最难被复制的能力。模型能力可以通过人才与资本追赶,工具链可以通过投入补齐,但大规模、低成本、可持续的算力底座需要长期资本开支与供应链关系的积累。可以预见,随着Token消耗量级继续攀升,算力话语权将向头部进一步集中,缺乏算力自主性的厂商将被迫向”轻资产模型授权+生态合作”模式迁移。

大模型平台私有化市场同步放量

与 MaaS 公有云并行,大模型私有化部署市场同步进入放量期。​ 2026 H1,大模型私有化部署市场规模达到 28.8亿元,同比增长 108.4%。需求主要来自政府、制造、能源、金融等行业,驱动逻辑正从“IT 设施建设”转向“生产环境落地”:客户的关注点也从单点模型能力转向平台的完整能力——数据安全、业务定制、自主可控与信创适配缺一不可,工程化交付与长期运维成为项目成败的关键;同时更看重对业务的支持效果,以业务指标而非模型榜单衡量投入产出。“应用+模型”一体机等形态加速交付,头部客户多期复购显现,市场正从单点试点走向规模化复制。

未来展望

MaaS市场在视频生成和通用智能体/日常办公推动下,持续高速增长。一方面,视频生成尚处于商业化放量初期,随着单次生成时长向 30 秒量级突破、可用率持续爬升,广告、短剧、电商等有真实预算的需求将源源不断转化为收入,成为增长弹性最大的板块;另一方面,日常办公等场景仍处于渗透早中期,调用量与客单价均有充足的上行空间。

商业模式加速多元化:从“资源生意”到“价值分成”。

  • 与市场规模的扩张同步,MaaS 厂商的变现方式也在快速多元化。标准 API 按量计费仍是最主流的模式;在此之外,以 Coding Plan 为代表的订阅制套餐、预定资源、按效果付费、合作分润等模式在 2026 上半年快速起量,收入结构呈现“按量付费为主、多元模式加速渗透”的格局。
  • 商业模式创新的意义不止于收入本身,更在于客户关系的重构:按量计费以低门槛赢得“入口”,订阅制与预定资源以承诺消费沉淀“确定性”,按效果付费与分润模式则试图把 MaaS 从“资源生意”升级为“价值分成生意”——厂商的收入第一次与企业客户的业务成果直接挂钩。
  • 展望未来 18 个月,商业模式将加速向“价值锚定”演进:与业务成果挂钩的计费方式有望从探索走向主流,厂商与客户的利益绑定日益加深,多元模式的收入占比也将持续提升。

增长换挡:从存量挖潜到增量开拓。国内市场,Coding 等先发大并发场景的渗透已趋近饱和,继续在存量盘子里“内卷式挖潜”,边际收益正在递减。厂商需要把增长引擎切换到两个方向:一是转化“还没进场”的客户,比如金融、医疗、政务以及大型企业的核心业务系统,它们并非没有需求,而是此前不敢用、不便用;利用专有云推理、数据不出域等方案,将这部分客户转化为 MaaS 用户盘的下一批增量,是厂商获得增速的潜在机会;二是向海外要增量,海外市场对高性价比推理服务的需求旺盛、订阅付费习惯成熟,且 API 定价与毛利空间普遍高于国内,正成为头部厂商收入结构中的新变量。

分析师观点

IDC中国高级分析师洪婉婷表示,2026 上半年是中国 MaaS 市场的重要分水岭。模型升级、场景扩容与视频生成三股力量共同驱动市场爆发式增长。短短半年,市场规模突破百亿,在公有云市场中的占比显著提升,其重要性不言而喻。往前看,市场将从‘跑马圈地’进入‘价值经营’阶段:短期,模型效率与推理成本决定入场资格;长期,算力与体系化能力决定厂商能否持续交付高质量、可信赖、可计价的服务,而这将最终决定利润池的归属。

进一步交流

如希望就《中国AI软件市场半年度追踪,26H1》定义、厂商份额及采购评估框架进一步交流,欢迎与我们联系。请点击此处与我们联系。

Catherine Hong

Catherine Hong - Senior Market Analyst

Ms. Catherine Hong is served as the role of Senior Market Analyst in Emerging Technology sector for IDC China, and her main responsibility is conducting analysis and research for the China Blockchain market. She is also in support of regional…

2026 年,生成式 AI 与销售管理深度融合,中国 AI 增强型销售管理 CRM 正从传统的信息记录、流程管控,向融合智能洞察、内容生成、预测分析与任务执行的全链路平台演进。企业选型逻辑已从比拼 AI 功能数量,转向关注产品能否嵌入真实销售工作流,在权限规则约束下产出可核验的业务结果,切实提升线索质量、商机推进与服务效率。

近日,国际数据公司( IDC) 发布了《中国 AI Enable CRM 市场份额,2026H1》报告,围绕上半年市场收入与竞争格局展开分析,为技术服务商锚定产品升级方向,也为企业用户更新 AI CRM 选型标准提供参考。数据显示,2026 年上半年市场收入达 5.971 亿元,同比增长 331.3%。头部阵营份额差距较小,前五厂商合计占据超半数市场,其余厂商贡献 47.2% 的收入,市场高速扩容的同时仍保持分散竞争格局。收入增长印证企业已开始为 AI 能力付费,但市场规模不等于场景成熟度,厂商仍需证明 AI 能力可持续嵌入销售流程,带来可量化的业务改善。

一个重要发现:2026年上半年中国AI Enable CRM市场收入同比增长331.3%,但厂商演示厅里“能跑通”的Agent,到了客户真实权限体系和异常接口面前,仍有相当比例跑不完一个完整任务链。市场在为AI能力付费,但付费的理由正在从“你有多少AI功能”转向“你的AI能不能在规则约束下把一件事做完、做对、留下可审计的痕迹”。换句话说,这一轮竞争的分水岭不是模型参数,而是任务闭环的完成率。

基于本次研究,我们梳理出行业五大核心趋势。当前市场仍处于从单点辅助向业务闭环演进的阶段,功能发布与真实落地效果尚存差距。企业选型应聚焦实际任务链表现、数据治理能力与投入产出效果,而非仅依赖功能演示。

趋势一:从记录系统到行动系统:Agent执行能力成为AI Enable CRM的竞争边界

统 CRM 以客户信息沉淀、销售过程留痕、流程管控为核心,云化阶段进一步打通了渠道与业务系统;生成式 AI 普及后,智能问答、内容生成、辅助决策开始嵌入销售工作流。进入 2026 年,AI 增强型 CRM 正向 Agentic 形态演进:智能体不仅能理解销售目标,还可直接调用 CRM 及外围系统,完成客户信息采集、商机判断、跟进执行与服务处理。系统价值正从 “记录已发生的业务” ,转向 “推动下一步行动并输出可审计结果” 。

验证真实的 Agent 能力,不能只看问答或推荐效果,需完整考察自然语言输入、任务拆解、工具调用、数据回写的全链路闭环,以及数据缺失、权限不足、接口异常等场景的容错机制。自主执行不等于全流程无人化,合同、报价、回款、客户风险等高影响动作,仍需人工确认或规则兜底。市场竞争的核心边界,已从功能覆盖广度,转向 Agent 执行范围、数据知识可用性、流程编排与治理能力的综合比拼。

趋势二:从功能堆砌到语义统一与能力复用,一致性决定规模化上限

用大模型与标准化接口的获取门槛持续降低,单纯接入模型、增加对话入口已难以形成长期差异化。销售流程中的客户、商机、合同、回款等核心对象,需要与企业组织架构、行业规则、指标口径、权限体系形成统一业务语义。行业方向正从按角色提供独立 Agent,转向打造统一 AI 工作台,将数据、业务与领域知识抽象为可复用能力模块,让智能体在全销售流程中统一继承上下文、调用权限与执行边界。

业务语义层的核心价值,是把 “能回答问题” 升级为 “知道该调用哪项业务能力、遵循哪套规则”。企业选型时,应核查同一业务对象的跨模块口径一致性、Agent 权限与现有体系的继承性,以及任务失败后的补偿、重试与人工接管机制;跨系统联动场景还需验证数据映射与全链路审计能力。只有能力可配置、可复用、可追溯,AI CRM 才能从标杆项目走向规模化复制。

趋势三:高频刚需场景率先规模化,自主决策类 Agent 仍待成熟

当前国内 AI 增强型 CRM 的落地呈现清晰的成熟度梯度:智能问数、知识库检索、坐席辅助、工单分类、合同审核、智能报价等高频、边界清晰的场景,已进入规模化应用阶段;销售预测、商机健康度评估、跟进内容生成、客户流失预警等场景已得到验证,但仍需结合企业数据质量与流程执行力持续优化。市场收入的快速增长,首先来自这些价值直观、落地门槛较低的场景。

线索挖掘、多语言内容生成、行业合规话术管控等仍处于试点阶段;营销全链路 Agent、深度办公生态融合、自主决策型智能体等方向潜力可观,但距离大规模落地仍有差距。场景数量不等于使用深度,企业应围绕解决率、处理时效、预测准确率、提效幅度、转化效果等指标建立评测体系,明确区分 “可演示” 与 “可稳定运行”,并按风险等级设置人工审核与流程回滚机制。

趋势四:生态协同、本地交付与合规能力成为选型核心考量

AI 增强型 CRM 的竞争已从单一产品能力,延伸至模型、云平台、办公入口与行业服务的生态协同层面。成熟的产品底座、存量客户基础与跨领域资源,正成为产品规模化扩张的重要支撑。与此同时,数据不出域、国产模型适配、多模型切换、私有化部署、数据脱敏、全链路审计、沙箱安全执行,已成为中大型企业采购的核心准入条件。

企业选型不宜仅凭 “支持私有化”“适配国产模型” 这类标签做决策,还需验证目标环境下的完整功能可用性、模型切换效率、系统集成难度与版本升级路径,明确实施交付、数据治理、模型调优与运维的责任边界。国际化产品的全球功能发布,不代表国内市场可直接落地使用,本地合规进度与交付节奏同样需要重点核查。

趋势五:商业模式多元演进,行业复用能力决定长期竞争力

AI 增强型 CRM 的商业化,正在传统席位订阅基础上,拓展出场景增值、资源用量、智能体调用等多元收费维度。厂商间的竞争差异,更多体现在行业流程理解、数据沉淀与交付能力上。按业务结果收费仍处探索阶段,供需双方需明确价值衡量指标,厘清各项成本的分摊规则。

规模化复制的核心,是将各行业项目经验沉淀为可复用的业务规则、流程模板与交付方法论,而非依赖定制化开发。企业采购时,应建立覆盖席位、资源消耗、系统对接、持续运营的总体拥有成本模型,并将线索质量、商机转化、服务效率等业务结果纳入续约评估。能否将项目经验沉淀为标准化产品、持续兑现可核验的业务价值,将直接决定厂商的长期竞争力。

IDC 给技术提供者的建议

建议一:以业务结果而非模型参数规划产品。围绕客户的销售目标、现有流程、量化指标和风险边界设计Agent,优先打通规则明确、风险可控的完整任务链,对合同、报价、回款和客户风险等高影响动作保留人工复核与程序兜底,并通过异常处理演示证明产品的执行可靠性。

建议二:将业务语义层和Skill复用能力作为产品底座。统一客户、商机、合同和回款等核心对象的口径,打通组织权限、数据血缘和审计机制,把可调用的业务能力标准化、服务化,避免统一交互入口与底层流程能力脱节,并将跨系统接入后的语义一致性和失败补偿纳入验证。

建议三:把数据治理和可信执行前置到项目初期。帮助客户厘清主数据、指标负责人和数据域边界,保障关键结论能够追溯至原始单据或交互记录。采用确定性程序与大模型协同执行,将置信度分流、人工审核、操作留痕、阻断回滚和持续回归测试纳入产品与交付流程,降低核心销售业务的运行风险。

建议四:按客户约束完善部署方案和生态协同。明确公有云、专属云、混合部署与纯私有化的实际支持范围,推进国产软硬件适配、多模型接入和办公生态连接器建设。对实施、系统集成、数据治理、模型调优及后续运维作出清晰约定,让客户能够判断上线条件、服务责任和持续运营投入。

建议五:以行业资产复用和可量化成效支撑规模化。聚焦两到三个核心场景及优势行业,将共创项目中的规则、流程和知识沉淀为可配置产品,合理控制定制范围并持续反馈产品迭代。建立清晰的订阅、用量与服务计费体系,帮助客户测算完整TCO,以问题解决率、处理时效、准确率和销售转化等可核验结果推动采购、续约与扩容。

IDC中国企业级应用软件市场高级研究经理徐文婷认为, 2026年中国AI Enable CRM市场进入从功能辅助向业务执行演进的关键阶段,问数、客服和合同审核等高频场景正在规模化,销售预测、客户洞察和跟进建议等场景持续验证,营销侧全链路和自主决策型Agent仍需突破。未来,厂商的竞争力将由模型接入能力转向可复用的业务语义、可治理的任务执行、合规的本地交付和可量化的销售成效。

AI Enable CRM的竞争正在从“场景覆盖竞赛”转向“失败场景治理竞赛”。高频场景之所以先规模化,本质上不是因为它们更“智能”,而是因为它们的错误可以被人工兜底、责任可以被追溯、风险可以被定价;而自主决策型Agent迟迟难以放量,核心卡点也不在模型能力,而在于失败后的归因、补偿与责任边界尚未形成可复用的机制。对厂商而言,下一阶段的差异化不在于多覆盖几个场景,而在于能否把“权限不足时的降级、接口异常时的补偿、跨系统映射失败时的审计”做成标准化能力;对企业而言,选型时应把压力测试从“功能演示”转向“异常路径演示”,要求厂商现场跑通数据缺失、权限冲突、回滚接管三类场景。谁能把失败场景治理好,谁才真正具备规模化复制的资格。

进一步交流
AI Enable CRM的选型与落地,最终要回到真实任务链和异常路径上验证。IDC将持续跟踪高频场景的规模化进展、Agent失败场景治理机制与按业务结果计费的演进。欢迎厂商与企业就产品能力验证、TCO测算与行业复用路径进一步交流,也欢迎提供真实落地案例,共同校准下一阶段的竞争坐标。请点击此处与我们联系。

Wenting Xu

Wenting Xu - Senior Research Manager

Wenting Xu, senior research manager with IDC China's Enterprise Application Research, focuses on research and analysis of the China enterprise system and software area. She provides intelligence and consulting services for local and multinational corporation IT vendors. Wenting has developed a deep…

随着大语言模型、多模态交互及端云协同架构不断成熟,智能语音、AI助手、导航问答、内容生成和个性化推荐等AI原生应用正加速上车。座舱交互体验也由此成为车企构建差异化竞争力的关键变量。AI座舱正从“功能集成”迈向“体验重构”,这一趋势首次有了可量化的市场刻度。国际数据公司(IDC)在《中国汽车云市场跟踪》报告中,首次将AI座舱解决方案作为独立附加(Add-on)市场开展系统跟踪,并从市场规模、竞争格局、技术路线和商业模式等维度发布首期研究成果。

IDC定义的AI座舱解决方案市场涵盖四个层面:AI开发平台/软件(模型开发、Agent编排、部署管理等)、模型服务MaaS(大语言模型、多模态模型及语音模型的云端、车端与端云协同调用)、AI应用(智能语音、AI助手、导航问答、内容生成等),以及AI运营服务(模型更新、知识库管理、运营监控与持续优化)。

IDC数据显示,2026年上半年,中国AI座舱解决方案市场规模达到7.1亿元人民币。这一规模表明,AI座舱已进入规模起量阶段,市场需求与商业化进程同步提速,市场正由早期探索转向规模化量产与持续运营。IDC预计,2026年全年中国AI座舱解决方案市场规模将达到16.6亿元人民币,到2030年有望进一步增长至47.1亿元人民币,年复合增长率接近30%。

竞争格局浮出水面:第一名份额超四成,市场早期就呈现出高集中的特征

从竞争格局来看,市场头部聚集效应显著:2026年上半年,火山引擎以45%的市场份额位列第一,阿里巴巴份额位居第二。从优势来源看,头部厂商的领先主要建立在量产车型覆盖规模与头部客户项目经验之上,属于现阶段的市场身位,格局远未固化。第二梯队中,百度依托座舱业务存量与地图等既有能力保持市场参与;科大讯飞依托座舱域软硬件方案与既有客户基础,稳步推进AI能力升级;此外,阶跃星辰等模型创业公司也通过与车企及产业链伙伴的深度绑定切入市场,部分技术已实现上车。整体而言,市场格局仍处于动态演化阶段,量产项目经验、生态协同能力与C端品牌认知正在成为厂商竞争的关键筹码。

License授权与按量付费并行,商业模式向价值导向演进

从商业模式来看,当前AI座舱市场的计费方式呈现多元化特征:面向功能套件组合的License授权仍是主流模式,车企因选型范围不同,定价差异较为明显;针对自研能力较强、仅需基础模型能力的客户,按Token或调用量计费的公有云模式成为重要补充;端侧部署则普遍采用一次性激活计费并辅以年度技术支持与模型迭代维护费。

值得注意的是,车企对AI投入产出比的关注度显著提升,定价谈判愈发围绕实际使用效果与价值密度展开,深度赋能项目与基础功能授权之间的价值差异正在拉大。与此同时,部分厂商开始以标杆项目为抓手,探索从车企买单向C端用户订阅付费过渡的路径,为市场打开新的收入想象空间。

端云协同成为主流架构,交互体验竞争走向纵深

从技术演进来看,端云协同已成为行业共识:端侧模型承担高频简单指令的快速响应,云端大模型处理复杂推理与多模态交互,在体验、时延与成本之间取得平衡。端侧模型参数量持续提升,对高算力车载芯片的配套能力提出更高要求;在产业分工上,云与模型厂商普遍与Tier 1供应商合作,将软件能力集成至域控制器,实体多模态交互硬件亦已在部分车型开展试点。此外,跟随中国车企出海步伐,座舱AI能力的海外落地正在成为新的增长方向;具身智能等前沿领域的探索,也为座舱交互形态的中长期演进带来更多可能。

从被动应答到主动服务,Agentic AI重塑座舱交互范式

从交互范式来看,AI座舱正在经历从“被动应答”向“主动服务”的关键跃迁。上一代座舱语音助手普遍采用“意图分域+多Agent协同”的回合制架构,交互割裂、使用频次受限;2026年以来,多家头部厂商相继发布基于Agentic AI(代理式人工智能)架构的新一代座舱方案,技术路线的共同点在于以统一的AI中枢联动车控、导航、智驾等功能域,推动座舱交互从回合制问答向任务驱动的自主执行演进。

从厂商公开披露的信息看,头部厂商的大模型车型搭载量已达到数百万辆量级,日均座舱交互达到数千万次量级;尽管各家统计口径不尽相同,但座舱AI从低频的“尝鲜配置”逐步转变为用户高频使用的日常服务,已成为可观察的行业趋势。IDC认为,这一跃迁的商业含义同样深远:只有当座舱AI从低频功能进化为高频服务,围绕服务闭环的付费逻辑才能真正成立,车企与供应商才有基础探索从B端授权向C端订阅的收费模式迁移。交互范式升级与商业模式演进的叠加,将共同决定AI座舱市场未来五年的增长斜率。

IDC中国云计算产品高级分析师陈启今表示,AI座舱是汽车云市场中增长确定性较高的新兴板块。当前市场仍处于早期阶段,商业模式、技术架构与竞争格局均未完全定型,头部厂商的量产车型覆盖与标杆项目经验构成先发优势,而车企对成本与体验的平衡诉求、以及C端付费模式的成熟度,将在很大程度上决定市场从”配置竞争”走向”价值竞争”的速度。对于供应商而言,围绕真实用车场景打磨交互体验、构建端云协同的工程化能力、建立可持续的计费模式,是把握这一市场机遇的关键。

IDC 相关研究

围绕AI时代行业云市场的发展趋势、客户需求、技术应用与竞争格局,IDC将持续开展系统性研究,覆盖汽车、具身智能、金融、游戏、零售等重点行业,包括但不限于:

  • Market Analysis Perspective: 中国AI游戏云市场洞察,2025(已发布)
  • 中国具身智能云市场份额,2025(已发布)
  • 中国汽车云市场跟踪,2026H1(已发布)
  • 中国金融云市场跟踪,2026H1(即将发布)
  • 中国游戏云市场跟踪,2026H1(即将发布)

进一步交流
AI座舱的格局远未固化,价值竞争才刚刚开始。如果您对这份IDC首发的市场数据有进一步了解的需求,或希望就AI座舱的商业模式、技术演进与分析师团队展开探讨,欢迎随时与我们联系。请点击此处与我们联系。

Organizations that fully use cloud marketplace capabilities save more than $1 million a year on average, according to IDC research. Capturing that opportunity starts with deciding earlier which technology decisions deserve your committed cloud spend. 

IDC Quanta for Tech Leaders, now available in AWS Marketplace, is built to support those decisions. It gives technology leaders a new way to put IDC intelligence to work. Ask a question and get a sourced, decision-ready answer. Compare vendors, benchmark pricing and deal terms, and pressure-test AI strategies. Build the evidence for a board recommendation. If your organization holds committed AWS spend and you are weighing vendor selections, renewals, or AI purchases as you plan 2027, this post is for you.

The decisions waiting on that budget are getting harder 

In IDC’s July 2026 Future Enterprise Resiliency and Spending Survey, 67% of organizations went over budget on agent spend at some point in the past 12 months, and 24% ran significantly or extremely over forecast. At the same time, more than 40% of CIOs and CTOs measure vendor performance without enterprise-wide consistency, which leaves negotiators comparing against whatever numbers each team happens to have. 

The implication: whatever budget you hold, your leverage in a vendor negotiation depends on whether you can show what a fair price looks like. 

Getting to yes with finance takes evidence both sides trust 

If you are a CIO or CTO, you carry the technology decision while Finance carries the commitment, and you are expected to bring the two into agreement. IDC understands how demanding that is. In IDC’s May 2026 Worldwide CIO Sentiment Survey, quantifying efficiency gains and demonstrating ROI to executives is tied as the hardest part of measuring technology benefits. Finance faces its own pressure. IDC research shows that CFOs or their delegates approve 78% of technology purchases, and they look for transparent costs, defensible ROI, and visible risk before they say yes. 

The same CIO survey shows what helps. A lack of transparency is the leading frustration with AI vendors, and client reviews and testimonials rank near the bottom of the criteria CIOs and CTOs use to select vendors. The appetite is for first party evidence. 

Alignment grows from shared evidence: trusted, credible, and verified intelligence, together with access to the experts who developed it. When your CFO can see where a recommendation came from, and an IDC analyst is available to pressure test it with you, the conversation can focus on how best to spend. That is what IDC Quanta for Tech Leaders is built to provide. 

Alignment grows from shared evidence: trusted, credible, and verified intelligence, together with access to the experts who developed it. When your CFO can see where a recommendation came from, and an IDC analyst is available to pressure test it with you, the conversation can focus on how best to spend. That is what IDC Quanta for Tech Leaders is built to provide. 

From marketplace discovery to the right vendor at the right price 

AWS Marketplace makes vendors easy to find. Describe what you need, and it returns recommended products built from vendor supplied listings and customer ratings. But choosing among them calls for objective depth, and that is the role of IDC Quanta for Tech Leaders. 

The Sourcing Workspace in IDC Quanta for Tech Leaders takes a technology leader from a need to a negotiated deal in five steps, with IDC research and data behind each one: 

  • Identify a market. Start from the IDC defined market that aligns with your need, such as AI governance. 
  • Define your requirements. Set the criteria that matter most to your organization and rank each one, from critical deal breakers to nice to haves. You can upload your own requirements. 
  • Build your shortlist. IDC Quanta evaluates vendors against each requirement using IDC research, including IDC MarketScape assessments, and shows where each vendor passes or falls short. When no single vendor clears every deal breaker, IDC Quanta says so and suggests how to pair providers to cover the gaps. 
  • Build the RFP. Generate a custom RFP from IDC’s proprietary data, with your requirements, weighted evaluation criteria, and timeline built in. 
  • Prepare negotiations. Upload your vendor quotes and an IDC analyst reviews the terms and comes back to you, with pricing benchmarked against IDC data. 

IDC Quanta draws on thousands of published technology vendor research documents and 15B+ proprietary data points, and it shows the source behind each answer so you can verify it before you take a recommendation to your CFO or board. Because that depth comes from proprietary IDC data and analyst research, it gives you a view of the market that general purpose AI tools cannot draw on. 

The result is a decision you can defend: requirements that trace to your priorities, a shortlist built on independent evidence, and a price tested against benchmarks, with IDC experts available at each step. 

Buying through AWS Marketplace gives you the same IDC Quanta, simply paid for by drawing down the AWS spend you have already committed. IDC’s trusted, verified data helps you navigate those purchases with confidence and helps ensure your spend drives the best possible outcomes. 

What to do next

Find the IDC Quanta for Tech Leaders listing in AWS Marketplace and get in touch with IDC. Then, bring your next technology decision, such as a renewal, a vendor consolidation, or an AI purchase, into IDC Quanta for Tech Leaders, set your requirements, and build the shortlist and the case you will take to Finance. The research and analyst expertise behind it are what IDC has always sold. What’s different is that your existing AWS commitment can now cover the cost. 

Haroon Zahid - Director of Corporate Strategy and Partnerships - IDC

Haroon Zahid is Director of Corporate Strategy and Strageic Partnerships at IDC.

影像云、AI医疗云成为市场的新机会。国际数据公司(IDC)最新研究显示,2025年中国医学影像云解决方案市场规模达到14.5亿元,前五名厂商合计份额为30.8%。与此同时,大模型与智能体技术落地医疗场景,推动医疗云定位发生转变,从传统业务运行底座,逐步升级为 AI 应用的承载底座。两大变化共同驱动医疗云厂商的增长逻辑发生切换,竞争重心由基础设施资源比拼,转向场景落地、AI 能力建设与生态协同。

IDC结合近期发布的《中国医疗IaaS+PaaS市场份额,2025》、《Market Share:中国医学影像云解决方案市场份额,2025》及《IDC MarketScape:中国AI医疗云2026年厂商评估》等研究报告,解答三个问题:影像云市场的现实增长机遇在哪里?AI 医疗云的核心竞争门槛如何界定?不同类型厂商应当如何调整自身竞争策略。

影像云市场短期将迎来快速增长,平台及应用层是厂商是关键切入点

医保影像云索引、云胶片、跨区域影像调阅等政策持续落地,影像云正在从医院内部辅助工具,升级为区域医疗互联互通的核心基础设施。市场需求也从单纯存储备份,延伸至云 PACS、远程协同诊断、影像质控、AI 辅助诊断等多元应用。

IDC 数据显示,2025 年国内医学影像云解决方案市场规模为 14.5 亿元,市场规模有限。然而,伴随医保影像云项目陆续投入运营,未来 1-3 年行业将进入高速扩张阶段。长期来看,影像云的建设重点将转向数据价值挖掘,AI 辅助诊断、智能报告生成、全流程影像质控,会成为市场第二增长曲线。

影像云解决方案市场前五名厂商合计市场份额为30.8%,市场呈现出“底层集中、应用分散”的竞争特征。三大运营商依托网络、数据中心和政企合作资源,在底层基础设施中占据重要位置,新厂商很难在这一细分市场实现突破;而平台与应用层格局未定,各类厂商仍可凭借专业产品、医疗行业理解和本地服务能力进入市场,并建立差异化优势,从而取得更高份额。

AI医疗云需求增长在即,AI技术适配与行业属性成为核心竞争力

医疗业务持续迭代,叠加大模型、智能体技术普及,医院对医疗云平台提出新的要求。AI 应用不再局限单点辅助工具,逐步进化为可以调用业务系统、处理复杂业务任务的智能体,医院对于异构算力、模型推理、数据治理、智能体运行环境的需求持续提升。医疗云也将从传统业务系统的运行底座,逐步演进为AI应用和智能体的运行底座。

现阶段不同等级医院数字化基础、预算投入、数据治理能力差距明显,多数 AI 应用仍处于试点局部落地阶段,整体新增算力需求还未完全释放。但随着医疗智能体应用数量与覆盖场景扩张,云上运行 Agent 会成为医疗云重要增量来源。

基于市场需求的变化,医疗云厂商的解决方案不再局限于服务器、存储和云资源价格,而应该逐步转向AI算力能力、数据平台、AI模型及智能体平台能力,以及医疗业务适配能力和医疗专业技术服务能力的综合能力建设。基于这一趋势,IDC发布了《中国医疗IaaS+PaaS市场份额,2025》,并推出《IDC MarketScape:中国AI医疗云2026年厂商评估》,从市场份额和厂商能力两个层面观察行业发展。

从市场格局来看,中国移动、中国电信、中国联通凭借云网融合和政企渠道优势快速崛起,占据了市场领先梯队。同时,中国移动、中国电信、中国联通、浪潮集团能够将基础设施优势转化为面向医疗AI的综合服务能力,同时深耕医疗行业,适配医院业务和法规的需求,并提供持续稳定的运营服务,从而在厂商评估中位于领导者类别。

短期内,厂商应立足自身禀赋,以合作共赢抢占横、纵向市场机会

行业竞争从底层基础设施的比拼,转向应用场景与生态层面的综合较量。各类厂商应该根据自身禀赋动态调整自身策略:

首先,横向拓展影像云等业务场景。 对具备云基础设施、网络资源和区域交付能力的云技术厂商,应关注医保影像云、县域医共体和区域医疗协同等业务机会,并通过平台运营和生态合作拓展服务范围;对具备医疗软件及专业影像产品积累的厂商,则应加强跨机构协同、数据利用和AI应用能力,提升专业产品的持续服务价值。

其次,纵向在业务中融合AI能力。云厂商需要加强异构算力、模型服务、数据处理和智能体运行环境的协同,但不应仅以算力规模或模型部署能力作为产品竞争力的衡量标准。医疗业务的高度专业性,医疗AI技术厂商可与云厂商形成互补,将自身在临床知识、影像分析、病历理解等领域的积累转化为可复用的AI服务能力,从而更好适配用户对于一体化解决方案的需求,提升整体交付效率与长期运营价值。

最后,开放生态补齐能力短板。 医疗云建设涉及基础设施、医疗软件和AI应用等多个环节,单一厂商难以覆盖全部能力。云厂商需要明确自研与合作的边界,与医疗信息化厂商、设备厂商及专业AI企业建立协同机制,综合开发解决方案,将本土化、安全、稳定性和持续运维纳入整体方案设计,逐步形成可复制、可持续的医疗云技术和服务能力。

IDC分析师林红认为,医疗云市场正在经历一次结构性切换:过去十年厂商比拼的是资源覆盖和交付能力,未来三到五年比拼的将是场景理解与AI落地能力。影像云是政策驱动下确定性最强的短期机会,但真正的长期壁垒在于能否把AI能力嵌入临床业务流,形成可持续运营的服务模式。对厂商而言,基础设施优势只是入场券,能否与医疗信息化厂商、AI企业形成互补生态,将决定其在新一轮竞争中的位置。市场格局远未定型,现在正是布局窗口期。

IDC相关研究报告:

本文核心观点来源于 IDC 报告《Market Share:中国医学影像云解决方案市场份额,2025》(Doc# CHC52955525,2026年9月)、《中国医疗IaaS+PaaS市场份额,2025》,(Doc# CHC54685326,2026年9月)、《IDC MarketScape:中国AI医疗云2026年厂商评估》(Doc# CHC54110126,2026年9月)

进一步交流

医疗云市场正处于关键转折期,影像云与AI医疗云的机会窗口正在打开。如果您的企业希望深入了解市场格局、厂商竞争态势,或需要针对自身业务进行定制化研究,欢迎与IDC中国医疗行业团队联系。我们期待与您进一步交流。请点击此处与我们联系。

Erin Lin

Erin Lin - Senior Market Analyst

Erin Lin serves as a senior market analyst of the IDC China Health Insights group. She is responsible for conducting research and analysis about the health industry for both domestic and regional markets. She is also involved in consulting and…