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Japan’s IT market is evolving beyond its traditional reliance on large enterprises, including public sector modernization, as a primary growth driver.

In 2026, IDC forecasts the market will reach ¥28,418.9 billion, growing 3.3% year on year, with a 6.4% CAGR through 2029. Large enterprises remain dominant, increasing their share from 53.9% (2025) to 56.0% (2029).

Japan IT market growth accelerates as mid-sized firms drive 9.5% spending surge, reshaping vendor strategy and digital transformation demand.

However, the key shift is in the rise of mid-sized companies.

  • Mid-sized firms (100–999 employees) will expand IT spending share from 19.8% in 2025 to 21.2% by 2029
  • In 2026, IT spending (excluding PC) will grow 9.5% YoY, outpacing large enterprises (8.7%)

Japan’s IT market is entering a dual-engine growth phase, combining enterprise modernization with accelerating mid-market digital transformation.

Why Are Mid-Sized Companies Accelerating IT Investment?

1. Is labor shortage forcing mid-sized firms to digitalize?

Yes, and it’s becoming urgent.

Labor shortages in Japan aren’t just a macro trend anymore. They’re showing up in day-to-day operations, especially for mid-sized companies.

Large enterprises have advantages: stronger employer brands, deeper recruiting pipelines, and more mature digital platforms. Many have already invested heavily in automation, workflow integration, and data infrastructure.

Mid-sized companies often lack both talent depth and digital maturity. They cannot compete on compensation scale or recruitment visibility. As labor shortages intensify in 2026, digitalization becomes essential for business continuity rather than a discretionary initiative.

In addition, digitalization mandates from large business partners and public sector procurement processes are cascading downstream. Mid-sized firms that fail to digitize risk exclusion from supply chains and ecosystem participation.

Bottom line: From 2026 onward, digitalization is no longer optional, it’s how mid-sized companies will stay operational and competitive.

2. Why will mid-sized firms rely more heavily on IT vendors and system integrators?

Because they don’t have the in-house capacity.

Large enterprises are increasingly building in-house digital capabilities or partnering directly with hyperscalers and advanced technology firms. Their internal IT maturity has advanced significantly.

Mid-sized companies usually can’t. Most have small IT teams, limited internal expertise, and constraints in executing complex modernization programs. So as digital transformation moves from planning to execution in 2026, they’ll depend more on vendors.

Mid-sized companies typically require:

  • End-to-end implementation support
  • Packaged, use-case-driven solutions
  • Operational scalability
  • External expertise in AI and cloud adoption

What this means for vendors: Serving this segment requires structural adaptation. Projects are smaller. Budgets are tighter. Engagement models must be leaner and outcome oriented.

3. Do mid-tier vendors have a structural advantage?

In many cases, yes.

While Tier 1 and Tier 2 vendors remain essential for large-scale enterprise transformation, mid-sized companies often require a different delivery model. Engagements are more operational, localized, and execution focused.

Mid-tier system integrators and regional IT vendors may hold an inherent structural advantage in this environment.

Their scale, cost base, and organizational focus are often better aligned with the needs of mid-sized enterprises. They’re often closer to the customer, more hands-on, and are better structured standardized delivery of outcome-driven solutions without the overhead associated with mega-enterprise programs.

Meanwhile, Tier 1 vendors are optimized for complex, multi-year transformation programs. Mid-tier vendors are often optimized for speed, proximity, and practical execution, attributes that align naturally with mid-sized companies entering digitalization at scale.

So, the fit matters. As mid-sized companies increase IT investment from 2026 onward, vendors whose size, service intensity, and geographic reach match this segment are likely to capture disproportionate growth.

4. How does cloud adoption lower transformation barriers?

Large enterprises frequently face modernization bottlenecks due to deeply embedded legacy systems and customized architectures. Transformation often requires extensive integration and long transition timelines.

Mid-sized companies face fewer structural constraints.

While legacy platforms may exist, system environments are typically less complex. As infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) and cloud-native platforms expand in Japan, cloud adoption reduces both cost and complexity barriers.

Cloud changes the equation by enabling:

  • Faster deployment
  • Lower upfront costs
  • Scalable digital infrastructure
  • Easier integration of AI-related capabilities

And that last point is important. In 2026, spending on AI (models, data, agents) is expected to expand rapidly. Cloud environments allow mid-sized companies to adopt these capabilities without large-scale architectural overhauls.

In simple terms: Cloud reduces friction and that speeds everything up.

What Does This Dual-Engine Growth Mean?

Japan’s IT market is not fragmenting, it’s expanding from two different directions at once. Large enterprises continue invest and modernize. Mid-size companies are stepping up as a real growth driver.

Going forward, growth will be shaped by:

  • Sustained large-enterprise modernization
  • Accelerating mid-sized digital transformation
  • Expanded AI adoption across both segments
  • Increased reliance on scalable cloud platforms

What Should IT Vendors Do Next?

Focus more seriously on the mid-market.

Growth won’t come only from large enterprise deals anymore.

It will increasingly come from:

  • Reaching more mid-sized customers
  • Delivering repeatable, outcome-driven solutions and
  • Aligning pricing and delivery to smaller-scale projects.

The takeaway:

Vendors that adjust early to this dual-engine reality will be in the strongest position to capture the next phase of growth in Japan’s IT market.

Contact IDC for deeper insights, or connect with our analysts to discuss what this means for your business.

Hitoshi Ichimura - Senior Research Manager, Software, Services, and IT Spending, IDC Japan - IDC Japan

Analyst Profile
Hitoshi Ichimura is responsible for the market analysis of overall Japan IT spending, based in Tokyo. In this role, he is responsible for the market analysis of IT Spending research by vertical, company size and region. His main area of research involves IT Spending market forecast and trends for the Japan financial industry local area and SMB segment. Ichimura is also involved in various custom research projects in the area.

The global cleaning robot market shipped 32.72 million units in 2025, up 20.1% year over year, according to IDC. While smart vacuum remain the largest segment, lawn mower robotics and window cleaning robots are the primary growth engines. Chinese brands now dominate multiple categories, reshaping global competition through AI-driven innovation, cordless upgrades, and rapid international expansion.

This blog highlights the structural shifts, competitive realignment, and strategic priorities defining the next stage of smart cleaning robotics.

Market Overview: Structural Shift Accelerates

According to IDC’s Worldwide Cleaning Robot Trackers:

The key trend is structural transformation. Growth is shifting from single-purpose indoor cleaning to multi-scenario intelligent automation spanning indoor and outdoor environments.

Smart Vacuum: Scale Meets Strategic Realignment

Smart Vacuum account for nearly three-quarters of total shipments. Growth was strongest in the Middle East & Africa (+95.6%) and Central & Eastern Europe (+40.3%), driven by expanding middle-class adoption and aggressive overseas expansion by Chinese brands.

The competitive landscape is shifting. Roborock maintained global leadership, ranking No.1 in major markets including the US and Germany, while Dreame expanded rapidly in Europe. Meanwhile, iRobot exited the global top five, reflecting deeper strategic divergence rather than temporary share fluctuation.

Two models are emerging:

  • Vertical expansion into full home robotics (indoor + outdoor)
  • Horizontal diversification into broader consumer electronics

Future leadership will depend on ecosystem strength and AI capability.

Window Cleaning Robots: High Growth, Low Differentiation

Window cleaning robot shipments rose 70.4% in 2025. Demand is fueled by high-rise living in China, large glass-window homes in Western markets, and rising safety and labor costs.

Ecovacs held over 50% global share. However, mid- and low-end competition is increasingly homogenized, characterized by similar product design and price-driven competition. Innovation is focusing on cordless design, stronger suction, and smarter navigation.

Lawn Mower Robotics: Cordless Disruption Reshapes the Market

Lawn Mower Roboticsgrew 63.8% YoY, the fastest among all categories. Wire-free models reached 1.32 million units, accounting for 66.2% of shipments and surging 182.4%, while traditional boundary-wires models declined 10.1%.

Adoption is accelerating due to mature RTK, vision, and LiDAR navigation, simplified installation and true out-of-box usability, DIY-friendly design for Western consumers, and cost advantages enabled by Chinese supply chains

Notably, the top six wire-free brands are all Chinese manufacturers, including Segway-Ninebot, Dreame, and Ecovacs, as AI-driven iteration speed erodes traditional garden equipment advantages.

Pool Cleaning Robotics: Intelligence Drives Premiumization

The pool cleaning Robotics market remained stable overall but is undergoing rapid upgrading. In-ground cleaners—the core segment—reached 2.75 million units, with cordless penetration rising to 55% (+32.8%).

Consumers increasingly expect autonomous navigation, stain recognition, app control, and smart home integration. Cleaning capability alone is no longer sufficient—intelligence now defines premium positioning.

Chinese manufacturers are leveraging cordless battery systems and AI navigation to challenge legacy players.

1. Chinese Brands Lead Innovation and Scale

Across Smart Vacuum, pool cleaning robotics, window cleaning robotics, and lawn mower robotics Chinese manufacturers are setting pricing benchmarks, accelerating cordless transitions, commercializing AI navigation, and scaling globally through e-commerce.

Supply chain depth and rapid iteration have become decisive competitive advantages.

2. Niche Segments Remain in Competitive Flux

Lawn Mower Robotics and Pool Cleaning Robotics are still in early intelligent transformation stages. Navigation technology, channel strategy, localization capability, and financial discipline will determine long-term winners.

Market concentration is not yet fixed.

3. AI Is the Long-Term Competitive Moat

AI is transforming:

  • Obstacle avoidance (scene understanding)
  • Path planning (targeted optimization)
  • Stain detection (adaptive cleaning)
  • Human-machine interaction (natural language control)

Companies that invest consistently in AI algorithms, data accumulation, and embodied intelligence will command higher margins and global leadership.

Strategic Recommendations for Industry Players

  • Capture niche growth windows while cordless and intelligent upgrades are still reshaping market structure.
  • Treat AI as core infrastructure, not feature marketing.
  • Build multi-category ecosystems that unify apps, data, and cross-device coordination to increase customer lifetime value.

Conclusion: From Appliances to Intelligent Platforms

2025 data confirms a decisive transition: home cleaning robots are evolving from standalone appliances into AI-powered home service platforms. With Chinese brands leading innovation and cordless technology accelerating adoption, the market has entered an era of all-scenario competition. Future growth will be defined less by shipment volume and more by intelligence, ecosystem integration, and global execution capability.

Ready to unlock the power of data? Connect with our IDC analysts today to transform insights into impact. Contact us now.

Claire Zhao - Senior Market Analyst - IDC

Claire Zhao is senior market analyst for Client System Research of IDC China. She is responsible for conducting research on the augmented reality (AR)/virtual reality (VR) market, and vertical analysis for the PC market. She started working for IDC China as a summer intern in 2019 as part of the Telecommunication group. Prior to joining IDC, Claire did some internships in the banking and insurance industries, and had some research experiences related to risk management, financial market, and data analytics. Claire graduated from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute with a master’s degree in Financial Mathematics.

2025年中国腕戴设备市场出货量7,390万台，同比增长20.8%。国补政策与促销活动成为增长主引擎，这一趋势将延续至2026年。市场参与者如何应对政策驱动的新节奏？本文基于IDC最新数据，为您梳理市场变化与未来方向。

根据国际数据公司（IDC）最新发布的《中国可穿戴设备市场季度跟踪报告》，2025年中国腕戴设备市场出货量为7,390万台，同比增长20.8%。腕戴设备市场包含智能手表和手环产品。其中，中国智能手表市场出货量5,061万台，同比增长17.2%。手环市场出货量2,329万台，同比增长29.4%。这主要得益于国补政策的刺激以及多平台活动补贴的带动。在政策驱动的增长背后，市场呈现出哪些特点？头部厂商表现如何？2026年又将走向何方？本文将为您一一解读。

2025年中国腕戴市场发展的三大特点

根据IDC跟踪报告，2025年中国腕戴市场发展呈现以下三个显著特点：

特点一：政策驱动成为增长主引擎

2025年市场增长主要由国补政策驱动，销售节奏受政策与价格波动影响显著增强。这一趋势将延续至2026年，市场对促销及价格补贴的敏感度进一步提升。这意味着，政策和促销活动已经成为影响市场节奏的关键变量，厂商需要适应这一新的运行逻辑。

特点二：500-1000元价位段增速最快

500-1000元价位段是成人智能手表市场增速最快的区间。这一现象的形成有两方面原因：一方面受产品迭代与价格调整影响，另一方面千元档位产品促销也显著带动该价位段增长。随着智能手表市场技术日趋成熟，该价位段凭借高性价比，对消费者的吸引力持续提升。

特点三：渠道流转加快，库存结构优化

补贴政策和促销活动推动渠道流转速度明显加快，从库存角度来看，有效缓解了渠道压货压力，推动市场向更加良性的方向发展。其中线上销售增长更加明显，成为拉动整体销量、优化库存结构的重要动力。

2025年中国腕戴市场Top 5厂商表现

华为

2025年，华为在腕戴市场稳健领跑，稳居中国市场出货量第一。Watch GT 6系列首发骑行模拟功率，快速迭代并广泛铺货；Watch 5系列进一步夯实了其在中高端智能手表市场的领先地位；Watch Fit系列则凭借精致外观与出色性能，在轻运动场景中表现亮眼。

小米

小米第四季度发布智能手表新品Redmi Watch 6和全智能旗舰手表Xiaomi Watch 5。此次推出的全智能手表是小米可穿戴系列完善其产品在高阶智能手表领域布局，向中高端市场迈进的重要一步。

Apple

2025年Apple在中国市场增长迅速，主要得益于国补政策带来的价格优惠刺激。其下半年通过Apple Watch S11， Apple Watch SE3和Apple Watch Ultra 3全线产品更新也进一步带动出货。

步步高

2025年步步高旗下小天才儿童手表品牌整体表现稳健，持续领跑中国儿童手表市场，稳居出货量首位。品牌通过产品线下探、发力线上平台实现多元布局，且深耕线下渠道，巩固市场优势。

荣耀

2025年，荣耀在腕戴设备市场实现显著增长。其在智能手表领域持续完善产品布局，覆盖入门至中端主流价位段，并推出多样化外观形态产品，为消费者提供丰富选择。

2026年市场发展趋势展望

IDC报告指出，展望2026年，中国腕戴市场主要呈现以下发展趋势：

趋势一：转向结构优化的理性发展阶段

中国腕戴市场将转向结构优化的理性发展阶段。在新传感技术仍在孕育的周期下，政策与价格成为影响增长节奏的重要变量，市场对促销与补贴的敏感度持续提升，行业运行逻辑更趋市场化。

趋势二：市场结构进一步两极分化

市场结构将进一步呈现两极分化态势。入门级市场凭借天然的高性价比优势，持续吸引新增用户并有效激活换机需求；中高端市场则在促销活动与政策补贴的双重带动下，实现显著增长。

趋势三：端侧AI或将开启新时代

伴随高通推出首次搭载专用NPU的全新可穿戴旗舰平台，端侧高性能AI处理能力将有效提升，或将引领腕戴设备进入端侧AI时代。

IDC中国研究总监潘雪菲认为，腕戴市场仍需在健康场景上持续深耕，无创血糖监测等慢病管理功能将成为行业重要增长引擎，释放更大市场潜力。同时，端侧AI技术的应用将显著提升腕戴设备的算力水平，未来可进一步与智能耳机、智能眼镜等多类穿戴产品实现多模态协同交互，有望构建下一代自然交互生态，开启全新发展格局。

针对技术供应商和采购方的建议

针对技术供应商和采购方，IDC提出以下三点建议：

建议一：布局双轨产品矩阵，适配市场化增长节奏

面向两极分化的市场结构，同步强化入门级高性价比机型与中高端功能旗舰；灵活联动政策与补贴资源，优化定价与促销节奏，提升用户转化与换机周期管理能力，在理性发展阶段保持规模与利润平衡。

建议二：深耕健康场景，打造慢病管理核心增长引擎

重点投入血压、血糖等慢病监测技术研发和产品应用，推动产品健康监测能力升级；以专业健康功能构建差异化壁垒，将健康服务转化为长期用户粘性，成为驱动市场增长的新势力。

建议三：布局端侧AI与多设备协同，抢占下一代交互生态制高点

强化智能手表端侧AI高性能算力，提升设备独立处理与智能响应能力；积极推进腕戴设备与智能耳机、智能眼镜等多类穿戴产品的多模态协同交互，构建下一代自然交互生态，以生态化优势开启全新发展格局。

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Sophie Pan - Research Director - IDC

Sophie Pan is a research director for the Client Systems Research team at IDC China. She is responsible for emerging technology device research, including wearable devices and smart home devices. Sophie has a deep understanding of the landscape and ecosystem development of the consumer Internet of Things (IoT) device market. She assisted the top-tier companies to formulate business strategies by conducting meticulous data analyses and uncovering opportunities and trends in the market. Prior to joining IDC, Sophie worked at a research consultancy and the IT hardware manufacturing industry, providing consumer research and market analysis services. Sophie holds a master’s degree in Integrated Marketing from the Florida State University in the USA.

2026年全国两会释放明确信号：“深化拓展人工智能+”与“打造智能经济新形态”，正成为ICT市场增长的双引擎。政府工作报告中强调的“促进新一代智能终端和智能体加快推广”、“推动重点行业领域人工智能商业化规模化应用”以及“实施超大规模智算集群、算电协同等新基建工程”，为企业级ICT市场的持续扩张提供了明确的政策方向。IDC基于最新发布的2026年V1版《全球ICT支出指南：行业与企业规模》（Worldwide ICT Spending Guide Enterprise and SMB by Industry）及《中国IT市场省级及云解决方案支出指南》（China Provincial Cloud Solutions Spending Guide），对中国ICT市场的结构性机遇进行了梳理。

基于上述指南的数据分析，IDC从市场格局、技术演进、行业赛道等维度，提炼出中国ICT市场的五大核心洞察：

洞察一：市场稳健增长，“深化拓展‘人工智能+’”成核心引擎

IDC《全球ICT支出指南：行业与企业规模》数据显示，2025年中国ICT市场投资规模为6889亿美元。展望未来，中国ICT市场支出将以7.8% 的五年复合年增长率稳步增长，到2029年有望突破9187亿美元。

从企业级视角来看，这一增长态势更为强劲。企业端的“‘人工智能+’深化拓展”战略正驱动着从基础设施到应用服务的全链条投入。IDC《全球ICT支出指南：行业与企业规模》预测，到2029年中国企业级ICT市场规模将达到5120亿美元，五年复合增长率13.3%，高于整体市场增速，成为推动新质生产力发展的关键力量。

洞察二：硬件为基，软件与服务引领智能化转型

IDC《全球ICT支出指南：行业与企业规模》数据显示，中国企业级ICT市场在硬件、软件、IT服务等多个领域展现出差异化的发展前景。

硬件：规模最大的“压舱石”。作为数字化转型的核心基础设施，硬件市场依然是当前中国企业级ICT支出中规模最大的组成部分，2025年占比超过五成。值得注意的是，AI训练和推理需求的爆发直接拉动了对GPU服务器、高性能存储及相关网络设备的投入，服务器和存储市场的投资到2029年有望实现24.4%的五年复合年增长率，成为硬件领域中增长最快的子市场。

软件：智能化转型的核心引擎。随着生成式AI的加速落地，软件正在成为企业智能化决策、业务流程自动化和数据治理的核心载体。IDC预测，2029年中国企业级软件市场规模预计达到933亿美元，五年复合增长率13.6%。其中，受到大模型发展的驱动，应用开发与部署市场成为软件市场中增长最快的子市场。

IT服务：不可或缺的赋能者。无论是在企业架构优化、系统集成，还是在智能化技术落地等关键环节，IT服务都扮演着至关重要的角色。IDC预测，2029年中国企业级IT服务市场规模将接近750亿美元。

洞察三：云部署模式分化，公有云领跑、私有云稳增

两会提出的“深化拓展人工智能+”行动正深刻影响企业技术路线的选择。IDC《中国IT市场省级及云解决方案支出指南》数据显示，2025-2029年间，三大部署模式的结构性变迁趋势愈发清晰。

公有云：增速领跑，占比突破四成。公有云是三大部署模式中增长最快的板块。IDC预计，2025年公有云支出规模达1018亿美元，占中国企业级IT市场总规模的44.2%；到2029年，这一规模预计将增长至2144亿美元，五年复合增长率高达23.4%。这一增长的核心驱动力首先来自互联网行业的持续投入，2025年其在公有云市场中的贡献占比超过50%；与此同时，传统行业的数字化转型也在加速推进，正在成为公有云市场增长的新动能。

私有云：规模持续扩大，占比稳步提升。私有云是中国企业级IT市场中占比持续提升的部署模式，2025年占比16.8%，到2029年预计提升至18.9%。私有云市场的高速增长，得益于AI工作负载的私有化部署需求激增。此外，数据安全政策的驱动，正推动大型国央企、金融机构等将核心业务系统向云原生架构加速演进。

传统IT：存量巨大，占比逐年收窄。尽管云计算的浪潮席卷各行各业，但传统IT部署模式依然在中国企业级IT市场中占据重要地位。2025年传统IT支出规模达900亿美元，占市场总规模的39.0%；到2029年，这一规模将增长至1193亿美元，但占比下降至29.0%。

洞察四：互联网行业领跑，企业级IT投资结构性分化

从行业维度看，IDC《中国IT市场省级及云解决方案支出指南》数据显示，互联网、金融、政府、制造、电信等行业的IT投资规模均位居前列。其中，互联网行业占据规模优势，金融与政府行业稳步推进数字化转型，而制造业则在政策强力驱动下，成为增长动能较为突出的领域之一。

互联网：份额领跑，AI驱动高增长。互联网行业依然是中国企业级IT市场投资占比最高的行业，2025年占中国企业级IT市场总规模的33.1%，并以25.2%的五年复合增长率高速增长，在各行业中增速最快。随着生成式人工智能进入商业化落地关键期，互联网企业从模型训练走向应用创新，对GPU服务器、AI加速芯片、高性能存储的需求持续井喷。

金融与政府：科技金融与数字政府双轮驱动。金融与政府行业在市场规模和增长态势上较为接近，2025年企业级IT支出规模分别占中国企业级IT市场总规模的12.3%和11.1%。在“科技金融”和“稳妥推进数字化转型”的导向下，金融机构正积极探索智能客服、风险管理、智能投研等AI在业务端的应用；政府行业则围绕“数字政府”建设，从政务云基础设施向“一网通办”、“一网统管”等创新应用持续延伸。

制造：增速领先，智能制造催生多元需求。两会报告中， “因地制宜发展新质生产力”及“实施新一轮制造业重点产业链高质量发展行动”被置于突出位置。制造业IT支出规模的五年复合增长率达13.3%。IT技术正在渗透到制造业全价值链，包括研发设计端的仿真软件，生产制造端的工业机器人、智能产线，经营管理端的ERP，以及产品服务端的远程运维等。

洞察五：区域与规模分化，超大型企业主导市场

两会报告中明确提出“深入实施区域协调发展战略、区域重大战略”，支持京津冀、长三角、粤港澳大湾区打造世界级城市群。IDC《中国IT市场省级及云解决方案支出指南》的分省数据，为量化评估这一战略下各省的数字经济活力提供了一把标尺。

从区域分布看，中国企业级IT市场呈现明显的梯度格局。中国七大区域中，华北、华东、华南三大区域在2025年的企业级IT投资规模合计占比超过85%，构成市场主力。聚焦省份层面，北京市以2025年33.4%的企业级IT投资占比成为全国企业级IT市场的绝对龙头；上海市在软件、IT服务、人工智能平台等投入上遥遥领先；广东省在电子信息制造业、智能硬件等领域积淀深厚，其中深圳IT支出五年复合增长率达15.2%。

从企业规模看，IDC《全球ICT支出指南：行业与企业规模》数据显示，超大型企业（1000+人）仍然是企业级ICT支出的主要力量，2025年占据超过五成的投资份额。超大型企业在智能算力、云原生平台、大数据平台等前沿领域的投入持续加码，为市场增长注入核心动力。

【IDC分析师观点】

IDC中国分析师张文蕙认为，2026年是“人工智能+”行动全面落地的关键之年。政策持续加码与市场需求释放形成合力，为技术供应商和行业用户创造了广阔空间。AI不再只是技术热点，而是重塑硬件、软件、服务及云部署模式的核心变量。展望未来，市场竞争将不再局限于单一产品的性能比拼，而是上升为算力、平台、生态的综合能力较量。对企业而言，既要把握AI赋能的确定性趋势，也要将AI能力与自身业务场景深度融合，在算力投入与价值实现之间找到平衡点。

IDC中国高级研究经理郭越认为，当前中国ICT市场保持稳健增长、结构升级、智能驱动的整体态势，在政策与产业双轮驱动下，AI 成为核心引擎，推动硬件、软件、服务协同共进，行业热点清晰聚焦。中国ICT市场中软件与信息技术服务业、云计算、智算中心等板块领跑增长，企业数字化与智能化需求旺盛，市场韧性强劲。人工智能从技术探索走向规模化落地，大模型、智能体、端云协同快速普及，带动芯片、服务器、操作系统、数据库、行业解决方案全栈升级，形成 “硬件筑基、软件赋能、服务变现” 的一体化发展格局。

备注：IDC《全球ICT支出指南：行业与企业规模》及《中国IT市场省级及云解决方案支出指南》数据中不包含企业运营技术支出（Operational Technology Spending）数据。

IDC《支出指南》致力于为IT厂商、行业用户和投资/金融机构在战略规划、产品研发、IT支出及投资规划等方面提供数据支撑。《支出指南》系列产品聚焦IT热门领域，从多个维度预测市场规模和增速，助力厂商发掘市场潜力；引导行业用户根据热点技术及应用场景进行IT规划；通过分析特定市场的发展前景，帮助投资和金融机构更好地做出决策。

IDC《支出指南》相关研究：

China Provincial Cloud Solutions Spending Guide

Worldwide ICT Spending Guide Enterprise and SMB by Industry

Worldwide AI and Generative AI Spending Guide

Worldwide Software and Public Cloud Services Spending Guide

Worldwide Security Spending Guide

如需进一步了解与研究相关内容或咨询 IDC其他相关研究，请点击此处与我们联系。

Wendy Zhang - Market Analyst - IDC

Wendy Zhang is a research analyst in the Data and Analytics group at IDC China. She is responsible for business operations and spending guide in China Enterprise Team. She provides dynamic forecasts of future China and global ICT market development. Wendy previously held research positions at ByteDance and Kingsoft Office, where she worked on global payment products and the WPS Cloud Platform, respectively. She conducted research on landscape and competitors of corresponding markets to provide market entry strategies. Prior to that, she was responsible for industry research for TMT companies at Capital Securities, providing stock price prediction and investment advice. Wendy graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Madison with an M.S. in Business Analytics and earned a B.S. in Economics from Beijing Normal University. She is an active leader in programs, including Deloitte data analysis program and entrepreneurship program. She speaks fluent English and Chinese.

Japan’s AI infrastructure market is entering a structural transformation.

According to IDC’s latest data, domestic AI infrastructure spending will reach over $5.5 billion in 2026, growing at least 18% year over year after a seven-fold expansion between 2022-2025. AI infrastructure is now a core pillar of Japan’s economic and industrial strategy.

What began as hyperscaler-driven expansion has evolved into national-scale economic infrastructure—measurable and structural.

Drawing on the IDC Quarterly Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Tracker and the IDC Worldwide AI and Generative AI Spending Guide, three data-backed signals define Japan’s next growth phase.

1. How Fast Is Japan’s AI Infrastructure Market Growing?

Spending has increased seven-fold in three years, reshaping Japan’s infrastructure baseline.

The surge was initially catalyzed by government-backed cloud initiatives under the Economic Security Promotion Act, which accelerated large-scale GPU server deployments. Many of these national programs are now reaching completion, permanently raising Japan’s domestic AI compute capacity.

However, growth is no longer purely policy-driven. IDC forecasts that Japan’s AI infrastructure market will expand by 18% year over year in 2026, reaching over $5.5 billion in total spending. Looking further ahead, the market is expected to sustain strong momentum with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13% through 2029, underscoring the structural and long-term nature of this expansion. Most notably, 2028 will mark a historic tipping point: AI infrastructure spending will exceed non-AI infrastructure spending in Japan.

AI is no longer experimental—it is becoming the primary driver of infrastructure investment in Japan.

2. Why Is AI Infrastructure Now a National Strategic Asset?

The scale and concentration of recent investments signal that AI infrastructure is being treated as a national strategic asset, distinct from traditional enterprise IT upgrades.

Japan is not simply expanding compute capacity.

It is building sovereign AI capability — including:

  • Domestic high-performance GPU clusters
  • National-scale data center expansion
  • AI-optimized infrastructure environments

The market has moved beyond hyperscaler build-outs toward long-term economic resilience and competitiveness.

AI infrastructure now underpins:

  • Industrial innovation
  • Enterprise competitiveness
  • National economic security

3. What Will Drive the Next Phase of Growth?

The next wave of expansion will be enterprise-led.

In 2026, enterprise AI infrastructure spending is forecast to grow 5% year over year, rebounding after large, one-time deals distorted prior-year comparisons.

More importantly, AI investment is shifting toward business-critical domains, including:

  • Sales and marketing optimization
  • Customer service transformation
  • Research and development acceleration

According to IDC use case data, AI spending is increasingly tied to revenue generation, product innovation, and competitive differentiation — not isolated efficiency experiments.

As AI workloads move from proof-of-concept to production, inference-heavy applications will further increase demand for:

  • Scalable infrastructure
  • High-availability architectures
  • Integrated AI lifecycle management

The market is transitioning from capacity build-out to operationalization at scale.

What This Means for Japan Enterprises and Vendors?

The question is no longer how fast AI infrastructure can be deployed, but how effectively it can be designed, integrated, secured, and operated at scale.

Enterprises must move beyond isolated pilots and architect AI systems for organization-wide deployment.

Vendors must evolve beyond hardware supply models toward ecosystem-based capabilities that include facilities integration, lifecycle support, managed AI capabilities, and infrastructure optimization.

The competitive battleground is shifting from capacity to capability.

The Bottom Line

Seven-fold growth in just three years is not a typical technology cycle—it is a redefinition of Japan’s infrastructure foundation. By 2026, the country’s AI infrastructure market will be defined by unprecedented scale, sustained structural growth, and rising national strategic importance. AI infrastructure is no longer a peripheral technology investment; it is rapidly becoming core economic infrastructure underpinning Japan’s long-term competitiveness and industrial transformation.

IDC’s Integrated View and Next Steps

IDC’s analysis draws on continuous, multi-layered data from the IDC Quarterly Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Tracker  and  the IDC Worldwide AI and Generative AI Spending Guide. In March, IDC will publish the report Japan AI Infrastructure and AI-Focused IT Infrastructure Services Market Analysis 2026, providing deeper insight into user adoption trends, vendor positioning, and ecosystem transformation.

To understand market sizing, competitive dynamics, and strategic opportunities, contact IDC to access the latest data and engage directly with our analysts.

Note: Exchange rates applied: 2022 – 131 JPY:1 USD, 2023 – 141 JPY:1 USD, 2024 – 151 JPY:1 USD, 2025 onwards – 147 JPY:1 USD

Shinya Kato - Senior Research Manager, Enterprise Infrastructure, Data & Analytics, - IDC Japan

Analyst Profile
Shinya Kato is a Senior Research Manager at IDC Japan and is responsible for the data analysis and forecasting team of Japan enterprise infrastructure market. He analyzes the impact of product technology, service offerings, and marketing strategies on enterprise infrastructure market and provides market forecasts, focusing on the domestic enterprise storage systems market. Through understanding technology adoption trends, he also provides insight into emerging devices such as flash, accelerators, and quantum computing. In addition to researching the HPC and AI infrastructure markets, he is also investigating new consumption models such as Hardware-as-a-Service, to help stimulate the market. Prior to joining IDC, he spent more than 10 years at Silicon Graphics, which was later acquired by HPE, where he held various domestic positions in sales, marketing, and business development. He has covered a wide range of businesses, from infrastructure hardware and container-based data center facilities to digital asset management, industrial virtual reality, and software for media & entertainment. He also served as a product manager for enterprise internet security software and appliances at the emerging vendor. He holds a Bachelor of Economics degree from Rikkyo University.