NEEDHAM, Mass., May 29, 2025 – Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 0.6% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025 to 1.24 billion units, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. The forecast was reduced from the 2.3% growth in the February forecast, due to high uncertainty, tariff volatility and macro-economic challenges such as inflation and unemployment across many regions leading to a slowdown in consumer spending. Growth will remain in low single digits throughout the forecast period, with a five-year (2024-2029) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.4% due to increasing smartphone penetration, lengthening refresh cycles, and cannibalization from used smartphones.
Despite the increased tensions, the US and China are driving the 0.6% growth this year. China is forecast to grow 3% YoY driven by government subsidies which will stimulate demand and continue to boost Android. In contrast, Apple is forecast to decline 1.9% in 2025 due to ongoing competition from Huawei, overall economic slowdown, and the ineligibility of a majority of its models for government subsidies capped at 6,000 Yuan. However, heavy discounts during the upcoming 618 shopping festival and the anticipated iPhone 17 launch with significant hardware upgrades are expected to boost demand and limit further decline.
“The US Market is forecast to grow 1.9% in 2025, but it was impacted from the ongoing US-China trade war as growth was pulled down from 3.3% due to increased uncertainty and tariff related price increases,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Further negative impact was prevented by the unique structure of the US smartphone market, where majority of devices are bought through carriers which help fuel demand by offering robust trade in deals and interest free financing programs. As a result, the forecasted 4% growth in average selling prices of smartphones will have less immediate impact on consumers, especially with many new premium devices launching in the second half of the year.”
“Since April 2nd, the smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty. While current exemptions on smartphones have offered temporary relief, the looming possibility of broader tariffs presents a serious risk,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Recent signals from the US administration on potential tariffs hikes on smartphones manufactured outside the US further complicate long-term strategic planning for OEMs. Smartphone vendors — particularly those shipping to the US — must now navigate complex geopolitics alongside ongoing supply chain diversification efforts. Despite these headwinds, India and Vietnam are expected to remain the key alternatives to China for smartphone production. However, additional tariffs of 20-30% on US bound smartphones could post a serious downside risk to the current U.S. market outlook.”
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For more information about IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, please contact Jackie Kliem at 508-988-7984 and jkliem@idc.com.
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International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC’s analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world’s leading tech media, data, and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.
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