Smartphone Market Share
OS Data Overview
While the worldwide smartphone market is expected to decline again in 2019, IDC believes the market will experience low single-digit growth from 2020 through the end of its forecast in 2023. The International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecasts worldwide smartphone shipments to decline 1.9% in 2019 to 1.375 billion units, down from 1.402 billion in 2018. However, IDC believes the market will return to growth in the second half of 2019 with volumes up 1.4%. In the long-term forecast, IDC expects the overall smartphone market to reach 1.519 billion units shipped in 2023.
Looking at the smartphone market from a geographic perspective, the developing markets still have a lot of upsides, some market momentum has been lost as the transition from feature phone to smartphone has started to slow. In all markets, pricing remains a critical decision factor when purchasing a new handset, and this is creating new opportunities for mid-range price points. However, the most significant and most uncertain market factor is how the U.S.-China trade dispute will play out over the year.
Android: Android's smartphone share is expected to increase throughout the forecast. In 2019, the OS share will increase slightly to 86.7% from 85.1% in 2018 mostly due to launches of several new models, including a handful of 5G devices announced or coming to market in 2H19. Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.1% with shipments of 1.32 billion in 2023. Android average selling prices (ASPs) are estimated to grow by 5.8% in 2019 to US$269, up from US$254 in 2018. This is a sign that OEMs slowly migrating their user base upstream to the slightly more expensive handsets. The new form factors, screen sizes, features, and brands are a large catalyst for this movement.
iOS: 2019 is expected to be another challenging year for new iPhone shipments with volumes expected to drop to 183.5 million, down 12.1% year over year. Apple is not likely to deliver a 5G handset in 2019 but given that many telcos and markets are still trying to figure out their 5G strategy, it's unlikely this will impact its market share. It is worth noting that Apple is beginning to sell more of its official refurbished iPhones, which creates a sizeable hardware revenue stream and, more importantly, maintain or expand its iOS installed base.