Smartphone Market Share
Updated: 8 Apr 2021
OS Data Overview
Maintaining the recovery achieved in the third quarter (3Q20), the global smartphone market continued its growth during the holiday quarter of the year & showed some sign of recovery for 2021 though overall 2020 witnessed single digit decline. The International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecasts worldwide smartphone shipments declined 6.7% in 2020 to reach 1.280 billion units, down from 1.373 billion in 2019 largest ever expected decline in the history. IDC expect the market to return to growth in 2021 by 5.5% YoY mostly sped up by the holiday season as well as 5G devices launches picking up from the damage of the pandemic. In the long-term forecast, IDC expects the overall smartphone market to reach 1.526 billion units in 2025.
Despite covid uncertainty & economic concern, the smartphone market witnessed strong demand. Christmas season gave the market much needed boost. Also, 5G remained the driving factor in the industry, accelerated further by the success of Apple’s full 5G iPhone 12 line up. IDC expects 5G smartphone shipments to account for more than 40% of global volume in 2021 and grow to 69% in 2025. Regarding 5G ASP specifically, increasing competition in the 5G Android space, particularly from Chinese vendors, will bring downward pressure on 5G ASPs, which are expected to drop to US$404 by the end of the forecast period in 2025.
PRC remained stable despite various city-level lockdowns that happened in northern China in January 2021 reflecting the rebounding consumer confidence. USA witnessed double digit decline in 2020 amid pandemic crisis, however growing 5G development & recently launched iPhones are likely to boost the shipment growth scenario in 2021. China and the United States are forecast to grow by 6.0% and 3.5% in 2021.
Android: Android's smartphone share is expected to hover around 84% with a slight increase throughout the forecast. In 2020, the OS share decreased to 83.8% from 84.1% in 2019 mostly driven by the delay in 5G Android flagship launches due to pandemic as well as partially due to the launch of iPhone SE (2020) in the first half of the year. Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.8% with shipments of 1.3 billion in 2025. Android average selling prices (ASPs) are estimated to grow by 4.5% in 2021 to US$261.
iOS: Apple's new 5G launches in the latter of 2020 helped the vendor maintained its growth amid pandemics. In 2020, iOS volumes increased by 6.5% year over year to reach 203.4M. While iPhone 12 was well received by the users, its iPhone 11 series continued to perform well. iOS is likely to continue the growth driven by the recent 5G handsets launched, which is expected to pick up iOS volumes slightly in the coming quarters.