Smartphone Market Share
OS Data Overview
While the worldwide smartphone market is expected to decline again by 3% in 2018, IDC believes the market will experience low single-digit growth from 2019 through the end of its forecast in 2022. IDC's Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecasts worldwide smartphone shipments to drop to 1.42 billion units in 2018, down from 1.47 billion in 2017.
However, IDC believes the market will return to growth in 2019 with volumes up 2.6% on an annual basis. In the long-term forecast, IDC expects the overall smartphone market to reach 1.57 billion units in 2022.
Looking at the smartphone market from a geographic perspective, the slow recovery of China remained one of the major delays in market recovery in Q3 2018. The slowdown will persist into Q1 2019 as the market is expected to drop by 3% in Q4 2018. Furthermore, the recently lifted U.S. ban on ZTE impacted the shipments in Q3 2018 creating a considerable gap that is yet to be filled heading into 2019.
Android: Android's smartphone share will hover with around 85% throughout the forecast. Volumes are expected to grow at a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.7% with shipments approaching 1.36 billion in 2022. Android average selling prices (ASPs) are estimated to grow by 9.6% in 2018 to US$258, up from US$235 in 2017. IDC expects this upward trajectory to continue through the forecast, but at a softened rate from 2019 and beyond. Overall this is a positive sign that consumers are seeing the benefits of moving to a slightly more premium device than they likely previously owned.
iOS: IDC is forecasting iOS to grow at a five-year CAGR of a minimal 0.1%, reaching volumes of 217.3 million by 2022. With the launch of larger screens and more premium models, Apple continued to lead the global premium market segment and reported 0.5% YoY growth during Q3 2018. IDC has shifted greater volumes into the 6<7-inch screen size forecast for iOS. Furthermore, these new iPhones helped the iOS have double digit ASP growth YoY in Q3 2018.