Smartphone Market Share
Updated: 14 Sep 2020
OS Data Overview
While the second quarter of 2020 (2Q20) resulted in slightly better than expected numbers, the market was still down year over year with visible signs of economic concerns in 2020Q2. The International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecasts worldwide smartphone shipments to decline 9.5% in 2020 to reach 1.242 billion units, down from 1.373 billion in 2019. The forecast follows the largest ever expected decline in the history. IDC expect the market to return to grow in 2021 mostly sped up by the 5G devices launches picking up from the damage of the pandemic. In the long-term forecast, IDC expects the overall smartphone market to reach 1.492 billion units in 2024.
COVID-19 uncertainties continued to stress consumer buying confidence. The consumers are being more cautious and have narrowed the spend to essentials only. This is thought to be relieved partly by 5G push expected from the smartphone value chain as 5G remains a priority for all smartphone OEMs despite the COVID-19 pandemic challenges & overall lower consumer demand. Several vendors have reduced their 2020 production plans to align with the market decline, though most of the cuts focused on their 4G portfolios. However, we still believe that consumer demand for 5G is very low globally and most of the push will be led by China.
From a geographic perspective, most of the regions, including developed like Europe & North America are hit hard from the COVID-19 with double-digit decline expected in 2020 yet IDC expects the top vendors to maintain the market shares driven by rotating strategies such as higher flagship launches and forming stronger ecommerce footprints. The Chinese economy will continue to be impacted by COVID-19, though the production hurdles that appeared in the first quarter are dropping off as the market resumes operations with limited restrictions.
IDC expects both Android and iOS to take the hit in 2020 as the macroeconomic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect consumer spending. Android’s smartphone share is expected to hover around 86% with a slight increase throughout the forecast. In 2020, Android volumes are estimated to drop to 10.7% YoY to reach 1.055 billion, while iOS is expected to reach 186.7 million down 2.2% YoY. The timely launch of iPhone SE (2020) has helped iOS to minimize the damage in 2020H1 & new iPhones expected in late 2020H2 are expected to further strengthen iOS position in the market.