Smartphone Market Share

OS Data Overview

Due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the worldwide smartphone market is expected to decline again in 2020. The International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecasts worldwide smartphone shipments to decline 2.3% in 2020 to 1.339 billion units, down from 1.372 billion in 2019. IDC believes the market will return to growth in 2021 with volumes up by 6.3% mostly driven by the accelerated launch of new devices and 5G plans picking up from the damage of the pandemic. In the long-term forecast, IDC expects the overall smartphone market to reach 1.511 billion units in 2024.

From a geographic perspective, China smartphones will experience the biggest shipment drop by nearly 40% year over year for the first quarter of 2020. The epidemic outbreak will undermine the Chinese economy as a whole and the many SMEs will likely bear the brunt, leading to tightened consumer wallets. Other markets are most likely to follow with ongoing supply chain disruptions and continued lockdowns, quarantine mandates & logistic restrictions will drag down growth considerably at a global level.

Based on the current situation and uncertainties around COVID-19, we factored three scenarios, Optimistic, Probable, and Pessimistic. Our current forecasts are aligned with the probable scenario, which ascribes a multi-quarter recovery for manufacturing and logistics given a more gradual return of Chinese workers to factories amidst persisting transportation challenges. China's demand shock extends several quarters but is mitigated by the end of the year with the aid of government-backed stimuli and subsidies. Demand in surrounding regions are also briefly suppressed. Global smartphone shipments show a more U-shaped recovery from the second half of the year. Actual phone shipments would however show a different overall shape given the seasonal nature of shipments.

Both Android and iOS are expected to take a hit due to expected launch delays and inventory issues from the pandemic challenges. Android's smartphone share is expected to hover around 86% with a slight increase throughout the forecast. In 2020, volumes are estimated to drop to 2.3% YoY. With most manufacturing focused in China, COVID-19 is expected to hurt iOS the most in short-term with an expected volume to drop to 186 million, down 2.5% year over year. It is likely to delay the most awaited 5G iPhones, which were expected later in 2020.