Smartphone Market Insights

A new foldable portfolio and affordable AI-enabled devices from Samsung and a refreshed portfolio design from Apple drove strong upgrades

According to final historical data from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, global smartphone shipments increased 2.4% year-over-year (YoY) to 336.9 million units in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25).  Despite the memory shortage crisis in Q4 2025, the market was supported by sustained premium growth, strong momentum in foldables and accelerated pull-in demand as consumers anticipated upcoming price hikes. The total number of smartphones shipped reached 1.26 billion units in 2025.

“Despite a challenging year marked with tariffs volatility, supply chain disruption and persistent macroeconomic headwinds across several markets, the global smartphone market demonstrated remarkable resilience, closing 2025 with a solid 2.0% year-over-year growth.” said Nabila Popal, senior research director for Worldwide Client Devices, IDC. “Interestingly, premium vendors Apple and Samsung were the primary growth drivers, posting the highest growth rates amongst the Top 5 at 7.4% and 7.9%, respectively. Apple maintained its leadership for the third consecutive year, achieving record-high shipments and a strong rebound in China fueled by the success of the iPhone 17 series. Even more notable, Apple and Samsung’s combined share expanded by two percentage points to 39%, up from 37% last year—underscoring the accelerating premiumization trend as consumers increasingly gravitate toward higher-end devices.”

“Samsung delivered its strongest Q4 growth since 2013, driven by strong sales of its Galaxy Z Fold 7 and affordable AI-enabled Galaxy A-Series devices, while Apple achieved its best fourth quarter since 2021 and delivered the highest ever revenue in a single quarter, a strong testament to the success of the iPhone 17 lineup,” said Francisco Jeronimo, vice president for Worldwide Client Devices, IDC. “Overall, Q4 2025 was a remarkable quarter for both Apple and Samsung, as they consolidated their positions in the smartphone market by driving strong sales in the premium segment and reaching all-time high average selling prices (ASP).”

As the smartphone market shifts towards higher price points, most vendors continue to face intense pressure. Despite this, Xiaomi, vivo, and OPPO largely retained their market positions in 2025, with only marginal share losses. Xiaomi maintained its third position for the quarter and year, despite double digit decline in Q4, stemming from challenges of transitioning its portfolio toward higher price points and increased competition in China. Vivo remains heavily reliant on India, which was the primary driver for its growth. OPPO delivered a stronger Q4, supported by new product launches and strong performance in China, although its full-year performance was constrained by softer demand outside China.

“While 2025 was a positive year for smartphones, the industry is now facing a distinctly different outlook. The memory shortage, which is widely considered an unprecedented supply chain disruption, will cause the market to decline in 2026, and the duration of the shortage will ultimately determine the extent of the market contraction,” said Ryan Reith, group vice president for Worldwide Client Devices at IDC. “This is a time where the size and scale the OEM will be critical, as larger players will be better able to secure advantageous supply and workable price points. Despite the outlook being down, ASPs are expected to rise because of cost increases.”

Top 5 Companies, Worldwide Smartphone Shipments, Market Share, and Year-Over-Year Growth, Q4 2025 (Final Historical results, shipments in millions of units)

Table Notes: 

• Company shipments are branded device shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors.
• The “Company” represents the current parent company (or holding company) for all brands owned and operated as a subsidiary.
• Figures represent new shipments only and exclude refurbished units.
• *IDC declares a statistical tie in the Smartphone market when there is a difference of one-tenth of one percent (0.1%) or less in the shipment shares among two or more companies.

Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 12.9% year-on-year (YoY) in 2026 to 1.1 billion units, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. This decline will bring the smartphone market to its lowest annual shipment volume in more than a decade. The current forecast represents a sharp decline from our November forecast amid the intensifying memory shortage crisis.

“What we are witnessing is not a temporary squeeze, but a tsunami-like shock originating in the memory supply chain, with ripple effects spreading across the entire consumer electronics industry,” said Francisco Jeronimo, vice president for Worldwide Client Devices, IDC. “The global smartphone market, particularly Android manufacturers, faces a significant threat. Vendors whose business is mainly at the low end of the market are likely to suffer the most. Rising component costs will hit their margins, and they will have no choice but to pass the costs on to end users. By contrast, Apple and Samsung are better positioned to navigate this crisis. As smaller and low-end-positioned Android vendors struggle with rising costs, Apple and Samsung could not only weather the storm but potentially expand market share as the competitive landscape tightens.”

“The memory crisis will cause more than a temporary decline; it marks a structural reset of the entire market, fundamentally reshaping long‑term TAM (Total Addressable Market), the vendor landscape, and the product mix,” said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “We expect consolidation as smaller players exit, and low-end vendors face sharp shipment declines amid supply constraints and lower demand at higher price points. Although shipments will witness a record drop, Smartphone ASP is projected to rise 14% to a record $523 this year. While memory prices are projected to stabilize by mid-2027, they are unlikely to return to previous level — making the sub-$100 segment (171 million devices) permanently uneconomical. In short, there is no return to business as usual for vendors and consumers.”

Regionally, markets with a high concentration of low-end smartphones are forecast to decline the most.  Middle East & Africa will face the steepest drop at 20.6% YoY, while the world’s largest two markets, China and Asia Pacific (excluding Japan and China), are expected to decline 10.5% and 13.1%, respectively. As the crisis begins to stabilize by mid-2027, IDC forecasts a modest recovery of 2% that year, followed by a stronger rebound of 5.2% YoY in 2028.

IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC’s Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly Excel deliverables and on-line query tools.

For more information about IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, please contact Jackie Kliem at 508-988-7984 and jkliem@idc.com.

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