Worldwide PCD shipments grew 5.6% in the third quarter of 2024 (3Q24), totaling 109.2 million units. Growth was driven by the tablet market that posted 20.9% year-over-year growth with a total of 39.7 million shipment units. The dismal 2023 market made for easy year-over-year comparisons, but optimism is growing on the supply side of the industry which is a win overall. A handful of devices refreshes occurred during the recent quarters, and channel filing was active in preparations for a number or large promotional days, as well as during the holiday quarter. Even though the global economy shows signs of recovery, worldwide shipments of traditional PCs dipped 1.5% year-over-year (YoY) to 69.4 million units. Factors including rising costs and inventory replenishment led to a surge in shipments in the previous quarter, resulting in a slightly slower sales cycle.
Demand, without a doubt, has returned for PCs amongst consumers and commercial buyers, however, much of the demand was still concentrated at the entry-level thanks to a recovering economy and the back-to-school season in North America. That said, newer AI PCs such as Copilot+ PCs from Qualcomm along with Intel and AMD’s equivalent chips as well as Apple’s expected M4-based Macs are expected to drive the premium segment in coming months.
AI is increasingly becoming more a part of the tablet market, but outside of the Surface led Windows detachable Co-Pilot+ marketing, the remainder is early days at best. Regardless, these innovations bring a wave of much needed optimism in the tablet market, piquing consumer interest, and potentially higher ASPs.
Commercial demand for PCs outside the education sector also remained strong as many businesses have begun to refresh their PCs in preparation for the end of support for Windows 10. Key markets such as Japan grew double digits during 3Q24 and is leading this transition, but IDC expects other markets to follow suit in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, Apple had a strong 1H24 and YoY comparison base before its new products are expected to launch.
For full year 2024, the global market for personal computing devices, is set to grow 3.8% in 2024, reaching 403.5 million units. While PCs have dominated the discussion, driven primarily by the AI PC marketing combined with the approaching end of support for Windows 10, tablets are leading the charge with nearly double-digit growth projected for the year. Worldwide tablet shipments are expected to grow 9.8% this year, outpacing the 0.8% growth in PCs. However, 2025 is expected to be a year of recovery for PCs, with growth anticipated at 4.3%, driven by commercial upgrades from Windows 10 to Windows 11.
The buzz around Artificial Intelligence (AI) has dominated tech news in the last couple years, most recently focused around on-device AI capabilities. However, many corporate budgets are constrained due to the overall macro environment, and companies are continuing to evaluate the need for AI PCs/Tablets, which often come at a higher cost.
Beyond AI, in the near term the PC and Tablet markets have some tailwinds, most notably the end of support for Windows 10. This, combined with improvements in the global economy, are helping shine light on the PC and tablet outlook. As a result, the commercial segment is expected to be a bright spot within the personal computing device categories with forecast growth of 5.1% in 2025.